Vigorous System continues to dig in ...

[Stormsfury]

Unable to update the website today ...

A strong trough with a vigorous s/w continues to dive SEward today ... with the Carolinas being the focal point later tonight for some highly changeable weather ... First, before some SFC based colder air works behind the small line of showers, mainly light rain as the lower levels continue to saturate ...

Later tonight ... this is where things get real interesting. This is a highly volatile situation in regards to bust potential either one way or another and with the convective nature of the upper system, categorial snowfall amounts are basically useless outside of the mountains. (If) any accumulations of snow are to occur, this will occur with the heavier convective showers where low-topped convection can tap into the mid-levels where steep lapse rates in the order of 7º-8º/KM are progged through late tonight/tomorrow ... furthermore, out ahead of the main cold front where some WAA exists, isolated convection has the potential to produce some marginally large hail ...

Under NORMAL circumstances (more cold air in place/not so late in the season), this would be quite a hit for the Carolinas with likely an all-snow event with 1000-500mb thicknesses plummeting below 534dm south of South Carolina ... but again, SFC temps are a bit too warm with such steep lapse rates ... More towards January, and this is a major Carolinas snow event ... more towards spring/summer, and this is a major severe weather outbreak for the Carolinas. Best categorial precip chances and snowfall in the mountains of course, with a general 2"-4" with locally higher amounts where stronger convective snows occurs ... thunder absolutely is a possibility with such strong dynamics. Where the heaviest bursts of precip occur dictate where the heaviest bursts of snow occur ... while just a few miles away, away from the core of the cell, a changeover may not even occur or just mix with snow. The temperatures will fall several degrees with precip as it drags down colder air from aloft ...

Right now of this post, the Foothills and Portions of Western NC should see some snow, with localized up to 2" amounts in heavier burst. Warm ground temperatures should limit accums., except where heavier bursts occur (mainly on grassy surfaces), but most roadways should be ok ...

Snow may mix with rain into South Carolina, primarily into the Midlands, and maybe the Northern Coastal Plain with the wraparound from the upper system. Click HERE for the 12z MM5 simulated radar loop. The 18z ETA has trended a bit wetter with the wraparound into Coastal South Carolina with the 1000-500mb thicknesses plummeting below 534dm, which again, under NORMAL circumstances would be a significant Coastal South Carolina hit...but climatology burns me again... at best with luck, heavier bursts MAY bring a brief period of snow, or a rain/snow mix but no significant accumulations are expected.

Again, high bust potential with this system as it exits the Carolinas and then barely misses the MA/NE ... however, it's quite possible that Cape Cod scores a significant hit, and later the Canadian Maritimes ...

Another system (the kicker) behind this storm should bring some light snows to the NE later this week ...

SF

[Steve H.]

18Z has kicked the storm a bit further east today, barely grazing the north MA and NE. I wouldn't take my eye off it though. Upper low swings thru the NE after this with some light snow. Watch out around St Patty's day though as the potential for a major east coast storm is being advertised again. I'm not hyping here (I live in Florida ), but with March ya never know. Will winter go out like a lion Maybe