El Niño for Winter 2004-05? Not to be Feared

[donsutherland1]

The issue of the likely emergence of an El Niño for the coming winter arose on another message board. It should be noted that one should not necessarily fear the possible onset of an El Niño this coming winter. It is not likely to rival that of 1997-98.

For what it is worth, in all winters in which Region 3.4 averaged 27.0°C or above (the June 2004 figure for Region 3.4 was 27.76°C; the June 2004 figure for Region 1+2 was 21.6°C), the following occurred:

Winters in which Region 1+2 averaged 25.10°C or above:

Boston: 37.5"
New York City: 19.6"
St. Louis: 19.2"
Washington, DC: 14.9"

Winters in which Region 1+2 averaged 25.10° or below:

Boston: 48.4"
New York City: 29.2"
St. Louis: 24.3"
Washington, DC: 20.6"

[donsutherland1]

Taking a further look at the emerging El Niño for Winter 2004-05, it appears likely that the following criteria will be met:

• R1+2 Temperature: Below 25.0°C
• R3.4 Temperature: 27.0°C or above

The following winters met such criteria:

1958-59
1963-64
1969-70
1977-78
1987-88
1990-91
2002-03

Notice that a few of the possible winter analogs that have been previously discussed by USAwx1, et. al. appear in the mix.

The composite impact of the above winters is below:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=293720">

Now, it should be noted that there is some variation among these winters. Two warmer ones in the East were 1987-88 and 1990-91. The remaining 5/7 (71%) generally fit the above profile.

However, the two winters that did not fit the profile had a much stronger westerly QBO than is likely this coming winter. Instead, this winter is likely to see the QBO complete its transition to East, but the timing is still somewhat uncertain. Right now, I'm still thinking January-February, but its behavior over the coming months will be telling.

Finally, for what it is worth, the following is the 2M Temperature Anomaly Forecast from the Scripps Institution's Experimental Climate Prediction Center:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=293881">

For now, let's see how things continue to evolve.