JenyEliza wrote:Just wondering if anyone knows how things are shaping up for N GA/Metro Atlanta this winter. Can't believe we're so close to Christmas already!
Anyway.....snow.....please say SNOW.....and LOTS AND LOTS OF IT!!
Jeny
Historically, and this wouldn't surprise me one bit this year ...
January is typically more prone to icestorm threats in Southland, with the greatest probability of snowfall coming in February ... and I firmly believe there will be at least ONE significant winter storm in the Southland this year, and possibly a couple of other threats ...
This winter is looking more and more like the cold air will entrench across the E US during the time we generally need it the most ... in the heart of the winter season, and the SBJ should be a significant player for a good majority of the moisture this winter ...
It all involves proper timing with ...
1) a phasing event where the northern and southern branches of the jet stream phase and energizes impulses into strong low pressure systems ...
2) synoptic scale overrunning event with moisture riding over the top of a shallow dome of cold air (arctic air, preferred for FRZ/IP or SN if cold air is deep enough at the SFC up to cloud base level, or generally about 10,000FT) brought about by a polar/arctic HP draining on the Eastern Side of the Appalachians, otherwise referred to as the "wedge" or CAD (cold air damming) ... CAD is responsible for most of the wintry weather threats in the Southeastern States, with generally, ZR (Freezing Rain) /IP (Sleet or Ice Pellets), since the cold arctic air is very shallow in nature and is "dammed" up against the Appalachian Mountains, and drains down on NNE/NE winds ... During a classically diabatically enhanced cold air damming event, strong high pressure (HP) provides a continuous feed of NNE winds down the Eastern Side of the Mountains, while a SW flow just above the SFC rides over the cold air, and condenses over the shallow low-level cold air. Evaporational Cooling enhances the cold air damming even further, and during the most severe events, the high can be locked in place for days ...
3) another commonality in the Southeast States, a generally moisture starved s/w disturbance rides across the Southeast and provides a brief period of snow ... sometimes producing accumulating snows, although, generally very light, and most of the time, just trace amounts ...
SF
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
LOL
