Solar Flux Rises Again

[donsutherland1]

For the second consecutive month, the solar flux increased. In November, it stood at 1137. Two months earlier, it had fallen to 1030. It still remains uncertain whether the solar flux is headed for another secondary peak in its longer-term decline toward a solar minimum.

However, I believe that the latest data increases confidence that it will average somewhere around 1000 +/- 100 for the winter.

For what it is worth, if one takes a solar flux of between 850 and 1150 in winters where the MEI averaged +0.00 to +0.99 (likely scenarios for Winter 2004-05), one finds the following in terms of snowfall for select cities:

Boston: 57.0"
Buffalo: 88.3"
Chicago: 43.9"
New York City: 33.7"
Washington, DC: 15.2"

If one excludes winters where ENSO Region 1+2 had an average temperature of 25°C or above (which is possible this winter), the averages come to the following:

Boston: 62.8"
Buffalo: 90.0"
Chicago: 36.4"
New York City: 38.4"
Washington, DC: 16.9"

[yoda]

Well that sucks... I would like to see above average snowfall. But we will see what this winter shows. Good post Don.

[donsutherland1]

Yoda,

I'll be more interested in seeing the rest of the global indices to gain a better idea on the NAO and PNA. It is interesting to note that none of the winters that met the solar flux-MEI criteria experienced an NAO that averaged < 0. Therefore, I would not place great reliance on those figures but view them as one hint among a larger pool of many other hints.

[wxguy25]

For the second consecutive month, the solar flux increased. In November, it stood at 1137. Two months earlier, it had fallen to 1030. It still remains uncertain whether the solar flux is headed for another secondary peak in its longer-term decline toward a solar minimum.

However, I believe that the latest data increases confidence that it will average somewhere around 1000 +/- 100 for the winter.

For what it is worth, if one takes a solar flux of between 850 and 1150 in winters where the MEI averaged +0.00 to +0.99 (likely scenarios for Winter 2004-05), one finds the following in terms of snowfall for select cities:

Boston: 57.0"
Buffalo: 88.3"
Chicago: 43.9"
New York City: 33.7"
Washington, DC: 15.2"

If one excludes winters where ENSO Region 1+2 had an average temperature of 25°C or above (which is possible this winter), the averages come to the following:

Boston: 62.8"
Buffalo: 90.0"
Chicago: 36.4"
New York City: 38.4"
Washington, DC: 16.9"

Don, Good post.

To compliment your data, here are composite h500 heights in El Nino winter near the Solar Maximum and minimum:

Solar Maximum
1957-58, 1968-69, 1979-80, 1991-92





Note the uncharacteristically weak Aleutian low. Normally in EL NINO winters this feature especially strong and prevalent; however suppressed due to enhanced geomagnetic activity released from CMEs

Solar Minimum
1963-64, 1965-66, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1986-87, 1987-88, 1994-95, 1997-98




A more “CLASSIC” winter 500mb set-up for El Nino years in the northern hemisphere if you ask me.

And lastly, 500mb heights in the years w/ SIMILAR variability in solar flux values:



The years used in the above plot were based exclusively on solar flux values and not modified or altered in any way to remove or include specific years w/ a preferred ENSO or QBO condition—thusly there is no reason to become alarmed since, yes, those winters were crappy ones across North America, BUT MOST don’t serve as viable analogs for any other climate factor aside from Solar Flux.

There were TWO winters where this current solar cycle (Solar cycle#23) peaked. 1999-00 and 2001-02. If we are to see a third peak, it would be extraordinary IMO.

Furthermore if you examine the data for other previous solar cycles you will find that DURING the period of decline after the solar maximum has passed—wild swings and in some cases extreme month-to-month variations in solar flux can occur.

Bear in mind that during the period following the peak of the solar flux cycle, the geomagnetic activity phase is at its highest point since during this large coronal holes exist and CMEs are favored.

These SMALL variations in solar activity are exactly that, and should NOT have much effect on the upcoming winter (if any at all).

[wxguy25]

Yoda,

I'll be more interested in seeing the rest of the global indices to gain a better idea on the NAO and PNA. It is interesting to note that none of the winters that met the solar flux-MEI criteria experienced an NAO that averaged < 0. Therefore, I would not place great reliance on those figures but view them as one hint among a larger pool of many other hints.

that is interesting, but PROBABLY due in part to the geomagnetic cycle which when near its peak is associated w/ a STRONGER Icelandic low (+NAO)

[WEATHERGURU]

How much Snowfall does this mean for Detroit, Michigan ?

[donsutherland1]

Wxguy25,

I agree with you. I don't expect the solar flux to be a big player this winter. I just thought the scenarios were somewhat interesting and, in cases, seemed to support some of the ideas discussed here over the course of the fall.

[donsutherland1]

WEATHERGURU,

The combinations described above yielded 52.6" and 50.6" average seasonal snowfall respectively for Detroit.

[yoda]

Wxguy25,

I agree with you. I don't expect the solar flux to be a big player this winter. I just thought the scenarios were somewhat interesting and, in cases, seemed to support some of the ideas discussed here over the course of the fall.

Ok. Thanks for the post above. I am just looking forward to an above average snowfall this winter here, and I don't know how the solar flux plays into it till now.

[wxguy25]

Wxguy25,

I agree with you. I don't expect the solar flux to be a big player this winter. I just thought the scenarios were somewhat interesting and, in cases, seemed to support some of the ideas discussed here over the course of the fall.

The BEST winter which had similar solar flux values to the present was 1993-94 in solar cycle #22. The rest were poor winters at best, such as 1972-73, and 1983-84, etc...Although 1972-73 wasn't bad if you lived in the South.

There were all winters which had the same kind of variability following the solar maximum.

I sense that solar flux and the geomagnetic cycle have the GREATEST impact on northern hemispheric patters during ENSO neutral winters. 2001-02 was an EXTREME anomaly as the majority did not see that kind of ramped warmth and persistent zonal flow the entire time.

Other Reasons why:

1. ENSO neutral-west QBO winter following a La Nina east winter.
2. N PAC SSTA configuration favoring +EPO and strong PAC jet.
3. Absence of any strong ENSO signal

Basically, you had all the worst possible features in place to begin with that ultimately decided how the pattern would behave, the solar activity that year just amplified it by a HUGE margin.

[Stormsfury]

I believe the rise in the 10.7cm solar flux was greatly associated with the very strong geomagnetic activity induced from sunspot (I can't remember the number) which caused several earth-bound CME's, and a fantastic auroral display well south back on Nov. 7th ...

Other than 3 very small sunspots and a coronal hole, we should begin to see 10.7cm solar flux indices to fall off once again before reaching its minima...

SF