I'm a fool

[sertorius]

Sorry to start anoter useless thread, but I just have to say this-I'm just a fool -I have spent the past two weeks following the "trend" of cold air that looked to get progressively colder for the central plains through X-Mass. I followed the GFS and the Euro, not for actual weather, but for trends. now the latest run of the GFS has it farly moderate for the latter half of Christmass week-is this trend correct-maybe not, but I'm a fool to have believed I could tell what was going on-I have been humbled!! I'm a fool to have started a thread questioning a local met who is quite nationally respected. Again, I have been humbled!! I'm sure I'll type more gibberish as the winter goes on, but hopefully I'll stick to observations and what local mets say!! Have a great day!!

[Portastorm]

Sorry to start anoter useless thread, but I just have to say this-I'm just a fool -I have spent the past two weeks following the "trend" of cold air that looked to get progressively colder for the central plains through X-Mass. I followed the GFS and the Euro, not for actual weather, but for trends. now the latest run of the GFS has it farly moderate for the latter half of Christmass week-is this trend correct-maybe not, but I'm a fool to have believed I could tell what was going on-I have been humbled!! I'm a fool to have started a thread questioning a local met who is quite nationally respected. Again, I have been humbled!! I'm sure I'll type more gibberish as the winter goes on, but hopefully I'll stick to observations and what local mets say!! Have a great day!!

Easy Sertorious Easy ... lots left to still be determined and the Arctic Air Invasion will happen. The only question now is the magnitude. Even the "experts" are saying that this pattern is not an easy one to nail down. But it is clear that much colder air is on the way for many of us east of the Rockies.

[rainstorm]

continue posting!!

[Tip]

While there is no doubt that the east coast longwave trough is setting up (see today's 0Z EURO) and cold air is on the way, the source of the cold air has modified. I have been watching the upper Canadian temps for the last two weeks and the coldest of air has increased from -45F to the current -30F. The northeast has virtually no snowcover to prevent modification of air masses coming from Canada. It will get cold, but the real vodka may still be a ways off.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/previ ... _na-1.html

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html

[sertorius]

Thanks for the responses!! I'm not going to quit posting-I'm just going to try and learn my limits Try and remember that I am a teacher and not a met!! Warming up nicely here today-next front due in by noon tomorrow!! How boring is our weather this month?? I'm excited and am following cold fronts that basically take our temps. to around or just below normal!! Like I said before, what will I do when we are supposed to get 1-2 inches of snow-prob. break my key board from typing so hard with excitement!!! have agreat day-just got our tree and am finishing up decorating!!