Birmingham, AL Forecast discussion... MAJOR COLD SNAP

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004

.UPDATE...ALL I CAN SAY IS...WOW! HARD TO FOCUS ON THE CALM...CLEAR
WEATHER TODAY...WHEN THE WEATHER CHARTS ARE POINTING TO POTENTIAL
WINTER MISERY DOWN THE LINE.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...MORNING UPDATE WAS A MINOR TWEAK TO
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE SLOWER RISING THAN FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WERE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES...AND THAT WAS ABOUT THE ONLY
CHANGE NEEDED TO TODAY.

NOW...WITH REGARD TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OUR WORKING PHILOSOPHY FOR
TODAY IS TO NOT BUY INTO THE MEX NUMBERS FOR MONDAY MORNING...BUT WE
CERTAINLY THINK IT WISE TO TREND TOWARDS A COLDER SOLUTION. WITH A
BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WE'RE GOING TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WE'LL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD
OUTBREAK SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. IF THE FEATURES PERSIST IN THE
FORECAST INTO TOMORROW...WE'LL START RAMPING UP AND ISSUING
APPROPRIATE OUTLOOKS AND PRODUCTS.
&&

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GADSDEN 45 20 50 30 46 / 00 00 00 10
ANNISTON 45 24 50 30 47 / 00 00 00 10
BIRMINGHAM 44 25 50 32 48 / 00 00 00 10
TUSCALOOSA 46 25 51 33 49 / 00 00 00 10
CALERA 44 25 50 32 48 / 00 00 00 10
AUBURN 44 25 52 31 50 / 00 00 00 10
MONTGOMERY 47 26 54 32 54 / 00 00 00 10
TROY 46 25 53 33 53 / 00 00 00 10
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

[JenyEliza]

WEEEEE. Here we go....looks like things are starting to come together. Hopefully we'll have a better idea by late tonight/tomorrow?

Jen

[Brent]

Hopefully... I'm hoping we're not headed for another snow bust, but it doesn't look like Sunday's event will be that big anyway. I'm keeping an eye on mid-week next week and then Christmas weekend. With bitter cold, anything that falls would stick immediately.

[PTrackerLA]

The latest runs show the trough setting up further west putting Louisiana into the deep freeze as well. Any chance we might see some snow showers or flurries?

[PTrackerLA]

NWS Jackson getting excited about the cold snap:
ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...CLOSER TO MOST OF THE FORCING.
HOWEVER...I PLAN ON CARRYING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. AFTERWARD...I JUST HAVE ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE THE
AIRMASS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY -- BRRRR. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE
CLOUDY...DRIZZLY...BREEZY...AND COLD AS THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH
LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WILL LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW FREEZING AS A SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

YOU MIGHT BE WONDERING...WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? IF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS HOLD TRUE...IT'S GOING TO BE COLD. LOCAL ANALOGS SUGGEST
LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS MAYBE NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S. OF
COURSE...EACH OF THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS HAVE TIME DIFFERENCES AND
VARYING DEGREES OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. BUT ALL OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE
GENERALLY THE SAME. I'M NOT GOING TO "BITE THE BULLET" JUST YET...
BUT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME TO
START THE TREND.

THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST TUESDAY AND ALLOW A SMALL RETURN OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD APPROACH OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS PACKAGE...I'LL BRING RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...RIGHT NOW...WE'LL JUST SAY IT LOOKS
INTERESTING.

JUST THINK...WINTER OFFICIALLY BEGINS NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ONLY THE
BEGINNING.


NWS Tallahassee hinting at lows in the teens!:

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS A LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH SO SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE GFS BRINGS AN VERY
STRONG LOW INTO THE EASTERN USA WITH EXTREMELY COLD AIR SLIDING DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF IT. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY...EXPECT INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPS. SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW BEING
SO STRONG AND THE AIR SO COLD. MIN TEMPS ON MONDAY MORNING MAY REACH
THE TEENS...WITH CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE.

More to come later this afternoon!

[JenyEliza]

Chattanooga, TN is getting on board! They've issued a SWS for Sunday/Monday, calling it a potential "Winter Weather Event".

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EST WED DEC 15 2004

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE- CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON- HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN- MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE- NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL- SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER- SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION- WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
300 PM EST (200 PM CST) WED DEC 15 2004

...MORE ARCTIC COLD AND SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. AFTER A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A DEVELOPING POOL OF ARCTIC AIR...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CANADA...WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THIS WEEKEND.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...

INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AND KNOXVILLE AREAS.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL...VERY COLD ARCTIC-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO A CONCERN GIVEN THE EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SINCE THE EXACT PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...LATER REVISIONS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FAVORITE RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR LATER UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.