MODELS FLIP-FLOPPING

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The models seem to be in an agreement that something will form in the Gulf Thurs-Fri. Now what I need help with is all of the flip-flopping. I live in southern Baton Rouge and would love to get any kind of winter-type precip. I have read most of todays posts and some say nothing, others say a little, and the latest I read from someone out of New Orleans say warmer with all rain. How many more times will we see things change before Thurs. night gets here. I know from tracking hurricanes it is not a given until they make landfall. Is this the same situation or will there be a definite answer to this mess before then. If anyone can shed some of there much more professional opinions on this I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks

[CYCLONE MIKE]

c'mon guys. I know some of you can help us gulf coast peolpe out when it comes to predicting winter weather scenarios. We just don't know exactly how to read all of these winter maps. What is it looking like for us down here.

[Janie34]

Many times the models have a difficult time trying to predict winter precipitation in the Deep South. As someone stated a short while ago, there are no RAOB observations in the far western Gulf and very few in Mexico. This is true. So, sometimes you see a model scenario in which storms will really wind up on one run and completely disappear in another run. This is especially true of GFS. Also, GFS has notable biases which remain even after years of tweaks and updates. That is, GFS tends to trend with colder temperatures and a surpressed storm track to the south. On the other hand, all models have their own quirks.

That being said, the models are in fair consensus about cyclogenesis in the Gulf. There is also good consensus on the cold air coming in. The models seem to be having problems predicting the strength and track of the low in the Gulf riding that old frontal boundary that will be in place. There is also disagreement on the exact placement of the cold air. This is one of the reasons for the uncertainty in the forecast.

The models will probably continue to "flip-flop" to a certain extent over the next few runs. Hopefully we'll see better consensus as we draw closer to the holiday weekend. Forecasting snow, especially on Christmas weekend in the Deep South is a tricky business. Most NWS WFOs will play it on the conservative end. As for Baton Rouge, it all depends on how far north the precipitation shield gets. I don't doubt the cold air will exist. The precip is the bugaboo.