SE TX forecast

[jeff]

Will be updating the forecast for an extended period of sub-freezing temps. and winter precip.

This may be as close as Houston ever gets to a white Christmas!!!!!

Strong arctic front moving into SE TX this morning with temps already down to 46 at Collage Station compared to 65 at Hobby. Large area of moderate snow can be found from Midland to just west of Dallas ahead of a strong short wave trough. Accumulations of 3-5 inches have already occurred over W TX and major interstates are snow packed and slushy from west of Fort Worth to the NM border.

Today:

Strong cold air advection will take over by mid morning with temps falling into the mid 40's by afternoon. Rain will gradually end from the west, although some may mix with ice pellets over our northern counties.

Thursday:

strong short wave in th polar trough to our west will begin isentropic lifting over the area. Lows near freezing will only make highs near 40 under continued strong cold air advection and increasing cloud cover.

Thursday night:

upper level energy forces a coastal trough and low over the NW Gulf. Moisture is brought northward into the frigid air mass over the region with precip. breaking out. Will go with a rain/snow mixture for now, even through the profiles favor all snow or sleet. Meso-scale banding could result in very heavy snow bursts over the region with significant loss in visibility. Temps will fall into the mid and upper 20's allowing whatever falls to accumulate on grassy surfaces. There is still the potential that the coastal trough could form far enough offshore to limit our moisture supply, which would greatly reduce our precip chances.

Christmas Eve:

Strong isentropic lifting continues with frozen precip expected. Highs should remain below freezing. Will go above the guidance high of 29 and forecast temps in the low 30's. I strongly believe temps will remain steady. Precip. sleet/snow mix should gradually end from the WSW by the early afternoon as the short wave pushes across the area.

Christmas Day:

cloudy and continued very cold. Lows in the mid 20's with highs near freezing. Flurries are possible in the morning as the long wave torugh moves across the state.

Persons should take precautions to protect pipes and plants for an extended period of sub-freezing temps. Temps. may fall below freezing late Thursday and not rise above freezing until midday Sunday.

This is a low to moderate confidence forecast:

Today: cloudy and turning much colder. temps. falling into the low to mid 40's by late afternoon. N wind 20-25mph and gusty.

Tonight: cloudy and cold with decreasing clouds late. Lows in the lower 30's. N winds 15-25mph and gusty.

Thursday: increasing clouds and cold. Highs in the low to mid 40's. N winds 10-20mph and gusty.

Thursday night: cloudy with a 30% chance of rain/snow/sleet after midnight. Some accumulation is possible on grassy surfaces. Lows in the mid to upper 20's.

Christmas Eve: cloudy with a 40% chance of snow and sleet. Temps steady in the upper 20's and low 30's. Some accumulation is possible.

Christmas Eve night: cloudy and very cold. Flurries possible. Lows in the low to mid 20's. Little to no accumulation.

Christmas Day: cloudy and very cold with highs near freezing. Flurries early. No additional accumulation is expected.

Advisories and Watches can be expected by late today or early Thursday based on additional model data.

Stay tuned

Jeff L

[Huckster]

Interesting and informative. How much snow do you think could possibly accumulate in TX? What do you think could happen farther east into LA, MS, AL, and FL? Latest ETA is not too excited about snow or any precip in your or my area. I am keeping my fingers crossed for the snow

[Johnny]

Thanks for the forecast analysis Jeff. Your temps don't match up with what the NWS and local mets are saying. I am leaning towards your temps because of steady cold air coming in with extensive cloud cover coming into play. I sure hope your first scenario of winter weather pans out! Keep up the good work.

Johnny

[jeff]

Interesting and informative. How much snow do you think could possibly accumulate in TX? What do you think could happen farther east into LA, MS, AL, and FL? Latest ETA is not too excited about snow or any precip in your or my area. I am keeping my fingers crossed for the snow

Amounts would proabably be light and right along the coast of LA (south of I-10). Profiles become warmer over MS and AL so it may be more rain in that area. Honestly I have not looked at much guidance east of TX/LA this morning. I have been dealing with the N TX snow and sleet.

Your precip. start time is still over 48 hours so there is more uncertainity. compared to TX where the event is within 36 hours (still uncertain also).

[vbhoutex]

This is coming in much colder than they progged earlier. We are now at 44º at 11:15am. Earlier progs had us reaching that level late this afternoon. It is trying to get interesting and like Jeff said the "snow cover" that is being generated to our NW(DFW, ETC.)won't do anything but keep the temps cooler.

Wish there was something we could do to make sure the Low comes in further North so we do get the precip shield.

[wx247]

Here is hoping you get a little white down your way VB!!!

[Johnny]

It's 40 degrees (11:30 a.m.) on the dot up here in Conroe...and dropping. We might even see a flurry later on today. I sure hope that low pushes a little more to the north late Thursday and into Friday.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

If and when the low does indeed develop does anyone know the chances of it moving a little more to the north? Or form a little more to the north to bring better chances of precip. to the central gulf coast region? Comments/Opinions any help.

[Yankeegirl]

Well it is 130 and its 44 out and windy! It is totally different from yesterdays weather... The local met said if the low that is skirting across texas stays to the south of us, we weill get flurries, but if the low moves in this direction it will make for a pretty good snowfall... Lets hope it moves up this way! I want to make my family members in RI jelous that I have a white Christmas and they dont!

[vbhoutex]

Here is hoping you get a little white down your way VB!!!

Thanks Garrett!!! I may have to bring out the speedo and do a snow dance!!!

[southerngale]

Wish there was something we could do to make sure the Low comes in further North so we do get the precip shield.

Get south of it and blow hard to the north!

[Brent]

Wish there was something we could do to make sure the Low comes in further North so we do get the precip shield.

Get some big giant fans and turn them on.