Ideas on east coast event next two days

[wxguy25]

http://img147.exs.cx/img147/523/neevent12gr.jpg

[Dave C]

Should be interesting for my are indeed(seMass). We will have an inverted trough lined up over us with east winds on the ocean side and with north winds on the land side. Localized 4inch+ amounts are progged for some areas. We also have ocean enhancement figured in as well. Will let everyone know how this plays-out in my area.

[yoda]

Have you seen the 12z model suite? It keeps moving it farther west and stronger... LWX AFD says "NEW ETA TRENDING FURTHER W AND A BIT STRONGER STILL WITH SFC
LOW FROM SRN STREAM UPR LOW. THIS WL HV TO BE WATCHED VRY CAREFULLY.
MORE ON THIS THIS AFTN."

This should be very interesting. It rings a few bells, per Jan 2000... even though the set up is not entirely correct and as it was back then...

[wxguy25]

Updated call on the second part of this event. Also covers whats currently going on in SE LA/MS/AL

DEC 25-28.

http://img137.exs.cx/img137/9726/northeastevent4ko.jpg

[Brent]

Updated call on the second part of this event. Also covers whats currently going on in SE LA/MS/AL

DEC 25-28.

http://img137.exs.cx/img137/9726/northeastevent4ko.jpg

Please no ice... I just want enough snow to cover everything.

[Wnghs2007]

IM IN D....YAY....COME ON BABY!!!!! COME TO PAPPA....

[wxguy25]

Im being very conservative for the moment, but once I have a chance to look at the 0z Data expect BIG changes along the VA and NC coast as well as probably increasing those snowfall totals across the SNE coast.

[Stormsfury]

Im being very conservative for the moment, but once I have a chance to look at the 0z Data expect BIG changes along the VA and NC coast as well as probably increasing those snowfall totals across the SNE coast.

Model progs are very important on the trends on the 0z run whether or not they can actually catch up to the strength of the s/w, SFC low. Biggest question is how much energy actually will be transferred from the GOM low to the baroclinicity offshore of the Carolinas (in the Gulf Stream) ... a much stronger SFC reflection in the GOM would lend credence to that low being the primary and not much in the way of transferrance can occur. Either way, this event is looking more and more significant by the hour.

SF

[wxguy25]

Im being very conservative for the moment, but once I have a chance to look at the 0z Data expect BIG changes along the VA and NC coast as well as probably increasing those snowfall totals across the SNE coast.

Model progs are very important on the trends on the 0z run whether or not they can actually catch up to the strength of the s/w, SFC low. Biggest question is how much energy actually will be transferred from the GOM low to the baroclinicity offshore of the Carolinas (in the Gulf Stream) ... a much stronger SFC reflection in the GOM would lend credence to that low being the primary and not much in the way of transferrance can occur. Either way, this event is looking more and more significant by the hour.

SF

I agree. Since the lead STJ s/w is the energy that has developed the SFC low, its track will be critical once it beings to lift. IF the track of the s/w is onshore or very close to the coast as the northern stream energy digs in and catches it, then we are in for it. This drags the SLP area closer to the coast since the low tilts northwest w/ height.

the complicating factor will be the kicker s/w which separates from the PV. This suggests the that phasing takes place further east and its another VERY close call for the Northeast. In JAN 2000 there was no kicker upstream of the northern branch energy and the ridge was more amplified over WRN Canada.

[wxguy25]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... m=&dd=&hh=

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... m=&dd=&hh=

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... m=&dd=&hh=

[Chris the Weather Man]

Merry Christmas, wxguy25, Good Analysis.......