Another Forecast I developed for the Next So Cali Storm!

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

I name these storms to keep track and this one is Frank.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
Monday, December 29, 2004 5:00 PM

DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...

SYNOPSIS....WINTER STORM EARL HAS PASSED, LEAVING A PATH OF DESTRUCTION AS TORNADOES STRUCK THE FORECAST AREA, SEVERE WINDS, A SQUALLINE, HAIL, AND ALOT OF FLOODING. ANOTHER STORM, WHICH WILL BE WEAKER THAN EARL WILL HIT THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME ON NEW YEARS EVE MORNING AROUND SUNRISE

...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...

PRE-STORM FACTS: SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD LINGERER AROUND TILL FRANK ARRIVES, HOWEVER NOTHING LIKE WE SAW THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT!!! ALSO TO NOTE THE THING TO LOOK FOR WILL BE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COVERING THE SKY TOMORROW MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. IF YOU SEE THIS, THIS IS THE SIGN THAT THE BELOW FORECAST WILL BE ON TRACK!

THE RAIN CHANCES WINTER STORM FRANK BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN EARL WAS LAST COUPLE DAYS, BUT STILL WILL DROP SOME RAIN ON NEW YEARS EVE MORNING. THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING FRONT THAT WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT GOES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN AFTER SUNSET IN THE LA BASIN, BUT KEEPING DRY IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA, MAINLY THE INLAND EMPIRE. REALLY NO DYNAMICS AROUND TO WARRANT REALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT THIS TIME PERIOD. FROM A PERIOD OF SUNSET TOMORROW NIGHT, TO MIDNIGHT, THE RAIN SHOULD BE STARTING TO FALL, LIGHT TO MODERATE AT FIRST, BUT THE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING SOMETIME NEAR SUNRISE, OR AFTER IT A COUPLE HRS IN THE LA BASIN, AND MOVE VERY QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON ON NEW YEARS EVE. THIS IS WHEN THE RAIN SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN INTENSITY. NOT REALLY LOOKING AT A BIG EVENT AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE BY WITHIN SEVERAL HRS, AND BE OUT OF HERE, SO LETS GIVE THE DYNAMICS DOWN. 35MPH 850MB LOW LEVEL JET, WITH 100% LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, A NICE UPFORCING ON THE FRONT, WITH A 75MPH JET STREAM WIND. THIS LOOKS OF WEAK TO MODERATE SIZED STORM, SO WE WILL ISSUE THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS, ESPECIALLY SINCE EARL GAVE SO MUCH, AND THIS WILL ONLY ADD MORE. NEW YEARS EVE SHOULD BE DRIER, WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WINTER STORM FRANK DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIM. ALMOST SO LOW THAT WE WILL MOST LIKELY NOT EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. 500MB TEMPS STAY NEAR -15C, WITH ONLY 9 VALUE 700MBVV'S, SO I WILL NOT INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

WIND CHANCES WINTER STORM FRANK'S WINDS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK. A WEAKEN FRONT, WITH 850MB WINDS AT 35MPH, WITH NO REAL DOWNFORCING DYNAMICS TO WARRANT HIGH WINDS WITH IT, SO A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THE TIME.


MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...A MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WILL START OFF 2005 WITH A BANG, SO STAY TUNED AFTER WINTER STORM FRANK PASSES
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

Monday, December 29, 2004 5:00 PM

WINTER STORM FRANK WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, AND MOVING BY QUICKLY. DON'T EXPECT THE SAME WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS FROM THIS STORM. THIS WILL BE AN ALERT LEVEL 2 STORM, WHICH MEANS, LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS, AND JUST RAIN, WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS.
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FLOOD WATCH

Monday, December 29, 2004 5:00 PM

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. NOTHING REALLY EXCITING, BUT THIS WATCH WILL BE DUE TO THE RAIN FALLING ON EARL'S DESTRUCTION. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES, IF THAT WITH FRANK, AND THIS WATCH WILL LAST FROM 6PM THURSDAY EVENING, TILL 2PM NEW YEARS EVE AFTERNOON.
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Tornado Chaser

[aveosmth]

Good Work TC...you were on the money for this last storm....and I can't wait to see the write-up on the storm after New Years!