N TX Flash Flood Watch

[jeff]

N TX Flash Flood Threat

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Flash Flood Watch in effect for most of N TX through Monday AM.

Impressive southerly flow has resulted in significant air mass moistening over the S Plains with dewpoints now in the low to mid 60's as far north as the Red River. PWS have increased to near 1.60 in across N TX and are forecast to exceed 1.75 in or about 275% above normal for this time of year. Slow moving convective boundary has produced 1-2 inches of rain east of I-35 today with upwards of 2.75 inches just south of Dallas. The short wave responsible for this activity is now pressing on toward the NE, however it appears a weak meso-scale boundary has been created by the continuous convection. This boundary may waffer north and south this evening near and north of the metro area producing very heavy rainfall.

A cold front currently extending from NW TX through central OK into SE KS will move very slowly southward reaching the Red River by noon Monday. Lift along the front coupled with periodic short waves in the sub-tropical SW flow aloft will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms. The low level jet of 35-45kts will become increasingly parallel to the front and any rain cooled boundaries producing cell training.

Due to a lack of vegetation growth and foilage flash flooding will be possible in areas of heavy rainfall. Grounds will become saturated over the next 24 hours with increasing run-off into area watersheds. River flooding may become a problem by the end of the week.

Further south:

Gulf ridging is maintaining a moderate onshore flow over TX and LA with surface dewpoints in the upper 60's to near 70 along the coast. Nearshore sea surface temps. are running in the upper 50's to near 60 and this is creating dense sea fog from Port Lavaca to SW LA. Visibilities have been between 1/4 and 3/4ths of a mile around Galveston with the Coast Guard station at the Galveston Ferry landing reporting 1/8th of a mile. Sea fog will continue to be a problem through the week as dewpoints continue to exceed water temps. Fog will spread inland during the early evening and then retreat back seaward during the morning hours as mixing develops inland.

[Yankeegirl]

And what is going to happen here in Houston? Are we going to get any kind of cool down any time soon? Maybe some rain?

[jeff]

Gulf ridging will keep most of the rain to our north despite being very moist and somewhat unstable. Scattered streamer showers will develop due to local forcing and moisture convergence, but no widespread convective weather is expected.

The cold front progged for the middle of the week looks to have very little punch and may not even make it off the coast. The upper level pattern is not very favorable for a FROPA at this time due to SW winds aloft. Extended shows very little change as SE US ridging and western US troughing hold the pattern across the nation. There could be a quick shot of cold air around the 14th, but models have not been consistent with this feature.