WxBlog is BACK!! Details on the event in the OV. lakes NE...

[wxguy25]

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog.htm

[Chris the Weather Man]

Ouch, I am in the #2 area on your 2nd map... Things might get very messy and nasty here........

( I live west of NYC, about 18-25 miles)

[Stephanie]

Like you said, I'm on the border.

[bostonweatherman]

wow... I'm firmly on the fence with you... looks to be 5-10 inches of ice and snow... any southern track (even by 5 miles) is 10-18", and any northern track (5 miles again) is 1-6" with 1/4-1" ice (I'm assuming that it would be 4-6" snow then 1/4-1/2" ice.)

[Dave C]

Thanks for update. I have a couple of observations. In southern New England I feel that F.Rain will not be an issue for Cape Cod and Boston area southward within say about 15 miles of south and east coastal sections. Winds shifting to east and southeast should erode shallow cold layer and bring in milder maritime air(water temps still low to mid 40s). Even if we get a secondary development I think wind directions closer to the coast would be E or SE but the cold air may lock-in longer maybe somewhat closer to the coast then the 15 or so miles. I'm just an amatuer but have lived in my area nearly 40 years and have learned a lot about New England winter weather and hopefully can learn a lot more from your advanced knowledge. I like the snowfall totals, seem right on target. If the High would anchor to our north during this event instead of sliding offshore to our east then prolonged icing could persist even this far south deep into the storm.

[wxguy25]

Ouch, I am in the #2 area on your 2nd map... Things might get very messy and nasty here........

( I live west of NYC, about 18-25 miles)

So I'm guessing you are either in morris or Somerset counties. Morris county is one of the cold air traps in the state aside from Sussex county during CAD events.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yep, Morris it is on the border of Essex and Morris...

[wxguy25]

Thanks for update. I have a couple of observations. In southern New England I feel that F.Rain will not be an issue for Cape Cod and Boston area southward within say about 15 miles of south and east coastal sections. Winds shifting to east and southeast should erode shallow cold layer and bring in milder maritime air(water temps still low to mid 40s). Even if we get a secondary development I think wind directions closer to the coast would be E or SE but the cold air may lock-in longer maybe somewhat closer to the coast then the 15 or so miles. I'm just an amatuer but have lived in my area nearly 40 years and have learned a lot about New England winter weather and hopefully can learn a lot more from your advanced knowledge. I like the snowfall totals, seem right on target. If the High would anchor to our north during this event instead of sliding offshore to our east then prolonged icing could persist even this far south deep into the storm.

The cape and SE CT, LI are in area 2 on map #1. Some ice THEN a change to rain.

[Dave C]

I might have read it wrong, it appeared that the boundry between 2 and 3 runs along the south coast and across Cape Cod, my location is between Boston and Cape Cod and looks to be in zone 3 which is the heavy icing zone. Sorry if I've read it wrong.

[IndianaWxOnline]

Think your icing area across the Ohio Valley should be pulled south about 75 miles, but other than that not to bad.

[Wnghs2007]

*Hangs Self*

Worst winter ever. Nuff Said.

[Chris the Weather Man]

*Hangs Self*

Worst winter ever. Nuff Said.

Hmm, I seen worst......

Take 1982-1983, Of course, I was not here, but that winter was a Warm one, and we got one MECS/HECS in Feb... Ah, The Great Blizzard of 1983

[Wnghs2007]

Ill be surprised if we in Georgia even see 1 event this year. NAO is going to be positive forever. The heat anomilies keep getting stronger and expanding in the atlantic. The evil Atlantic Jet wont let up so its over. The GOA Anomilies are cooling and the weak warm anomilies there were are mirgrating back towards the west.


So West Coast trough, southeast ridge all winter. It will just get warmer...By February with the higher sun angle we will have highs in the 80's. With are luck the NAO will go negative and pna positive in Late March Thru May and ruin are spring.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Ill be surprised if we in Georgia even see 1 event this year. NAO is going to be positive forever. The heat anomilies keep getting stronger and expanding in the atlantic. The evil Atlantic Jet wont let up so its over. The GOA Anomilies are cooling and the weak warm anomilies there were are mirgrating back towards the west.


So West Coast trough, southeast ridge all winter. It will just get warmer...By February with the higher sun angle we will have highs in the 80's. With are luck the NAO will go negative and pna positive in Late March Thru May and ruin are spring.

Well, The NAO forecast are showing a drop, but I will believe it when I see it.... Stick with Wxguy25 Jan outlook, it looks to be right on the money, and perhaps one of the best outlooks I've read in some time...

[weatherlover427]

Ill be surprised if we in Georgia even see 1 event this year. NAO is going to be positive forever. The heat anomilies keep getting stronger and expanding in the atlantic. The evil Atlantic Jet wont let up so its over. The GOA Anomilies are cooling and the weak warm anomilies there were are mirgrating back towards the west.


So West Coast trough, southeast ridge all winter. It will just get warmer...By February with the higher sun angle we will have highs in the 80's. With are luck the NAO will go negative and pna positive in Late March Thru May and ruin are spring.

Oh come on now, we have to get some drought relief sooner or later...