WXBLOG returns!! Complete update and FEB outlook...

[wxguy25]

Hmmm........... This might be a doozy...


By the way, I heard of a 3 wave pattern happening? What is a 3 wave patten? I heard of it, has 3 PVs? Not really sure....

three predominant longwave troughs over the northern hemisphere

Thank You very much.... Now, I heard that if that forms, there could be a Major Arctic Outbreak?

Yes, B/c of the amplified pattern.

[stormman]

unbelievable, this winter absolutely sucks, I was really looking forward to the poss storm for next weekend, now you say philly will be on the fence, what does that mean, here in philly we will get the frinze and be lucky to get an inch.

[Anonymous]

unbelievable, this winter absolutely sucks, I was really looking forward to the poss storm for next weekend, now you say philly will be on the fence, what does that mean, here in philly we will get the frinze and be lucky to get an inch.

I hear u man i live in philly 2. This winter does suck. I still have hope tho on 1 reason. If you look at the maps at the bottom of wxguys page (http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/test_page.htm) we still have a good shot all of febuary. And i am wondering what on the fence means too wxguy? Philly is gunna miss out on this storm to arent they. Does on the fence mean well still see some snow like more than an inch or 2?

[Wnghs2007]

I like the Cad Signature....Hopefully the 50/50 will be further south than the models are currently showing when the 3rd Clipper comes in and force it to move and dig even further to the south than its currently showing. Maybe we can get some overrunning type precip.

In the long run of things, i have heard from various sources that day 7 12z ECMWF shows a dual sturcture between the pv and 50/50 with a Mod. Neg Nao.

[roebear]

wxguy 25,
FWIW, I am noting natural indications of a very severe winter event within 5-10 days in my area (PA). Indications for a mid to late winter superstorm such as 1993 or January 1996 or even the great NE Blizzard of 1888 , may or may not be included within the 5-10 day period. Such precision is beyond my methods of natural indications.

To explain what I mean by natural indications:

the majority of my work is what I call natural indicators, daily observation of changes in the environment such as wildlife movements, natural cycles variations, etc. The remainder is mostly by charting weather patterns of analog years. My meteorological knowledge is definitely unequal to most here, being about 25 years out of date, but I am updating that knowlege as best I can. My forecasts tend to be long range, seasonal, and somewhat general. At times (such as this) dramatic natural indicator changes can be combined with meteorological work in shorter time frames to give an added push to a met forecast probability. Forecasts are also targeted to the environment I observe in my local area, but of course the local weather is shared by adjoining areas according to the size of the weather systems so there is a larger footprint to the forecast. My local area indicated in all my forecasts is about 80 miles ENE of Philadelphia.

BTW, I do not forecast professionally, it is a hobby, but I do a winter weather forecast since 1992 and the same for a forum of energy traders since 1997. They are mostly interested in if it is going to be a colder or warmer than normal winter or summer, grin. My biggest bust was the winter of 2001-2002, which I thought would be a lot colder than it turned out, my largest success was forecasting a "winter hurricane" type storm for the Jan-March 1993 period. (Forgive the winter hurricane term, I tend to lapse into almanac weather terms)

My compliments on your always interesting and informative posts and discussions.

[Anonymous]

wxguy 25,
FWIW, I am noting natural indications of a very severe winter event within 5-10 days in my area (PA). Indications for a mid to late winter superstorm such as 1993 or January 1996 or even the great NE Blizzard of 1888 , may or may not be included within the 5-10 day period. Such precision is beyond my methods of natural indications.

To explain what I mean by natural indications:

the majority of my work is what I call natural indicators, daily observation of changes in the environment such as wildlife movements, natural cycles variations, etc. The remainder is mostly by charting weather patterns of analog years. My meteorological knowledge is definitely unequal to most here, being about 25 years out of date, but I am updating that knowlege as best I can. My forecasts tend to be long range, seasonal, and somewhat general. At times (such as this) dramatic natural indicator changes can be combined with meteorological work in shorter time frames to give an added push to a met forecast probability. Forecasts are also targeted to the environment I observe in my local area, but of course the local weather is shared by adjoining areas according to the size of the weather systems so there is a larger footprint to the forecast. My local area indicated in all my forecasts is about 80 miles ENE of Philadelphia.

BTW, I do not forecast professionally, it is a hobby, but I do a winter weather forecast since 1992 and the same for a forum of energy traders since 1997. They are mostly interested in if it is going to be a colder or warmer than normal winter or summer, grin. My biggest bust was the winter of 2001-2002, which I thought would be a lot colder than it turned out, my largest success was forecasting a "winter hurricane" type storm for the Jan-March 1993 period. (Forgive the winter hurricane term, I tend to lapse into almanac weather terms)

My compliments on your always interesting and informative posts and discussions.

FINALLY some good news for philly!!! SEVERE WINTER WEATHER!!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Hmmm........... This might be a doozy...


By the way, I heard of a 3 wave pattern happening? What is a 3 wave patten? I heard of it, has 3 PVs? Not really sure....

three predominant longwave troughs over the northern hemisphere

Thank You very much.... Now, I heard that if that forms, there could be a Major Arctic Outbreak?

Yes, B/c of the amplified pattern.

I would not mind that....... Do you see this a possible outcome in the later terms?

[Yankeegirl]

Ug... i saw a Robin yesterday....

[Chris the Weather Man]

wxguy 25,
FWIW, I am noting natural indications of a very severe winter event within 5-10 days in my area (PA). Indications for a mid to late winter superstorm such as 1993 or January 1996 or even the great NE Blizzard of 1888 , may or may not be included within the 5-10 day period. Such precision is beyond my methods of natural indications.

To explain what I mean by natural indications:

the majority of my work is what I call natural indicators, daily observation of changes in the environment such as wildlife movements, natural cycles variations, etc. The remainder is mostly by charting weather patterns of analog years. My meteorological knowledge is definitely unequal to most here, being about 25 years out of date, but I am updating that knowlege as best I can. My forecasts tend to be long range, seasonal, and somewhat general. At times (such as this) dramatic natural indicator changes can be combined with meteorological work in shorter time frames to give an added push to a met forecast probability. Forecasts are also targeted to the environment I observe in my local area, but of course the local weather is shared by adjoining areas according to the size of the weather systems so there is a larger footprint to the forecast. My local area indicated in all my forecasts is about 80 miles ENE of Philadelphia.

BTW, I do not forecast professionally, it is a hobby, but I do a winter weather forecast since 1992 and the same for a forum of energy traders since 1997. They are mostly interested in if it is going to be a colder or warmer than normal winter or summer, grin. My biggest bust was the winter of 2001-2002, which I thought would be a lot colder than it turned out, my largest success was forecasting a "winter hurricane" type storm for the Jan-March 1993 period. (Forgive the winter hurricane term, I tend to lapse into almanac weather terms)

My compliments on your always interesting and informative posts and discussions.

What? 1996? Would be VERY hard to get it now...

[wxguy25]

wxguy 25,
FWIW, I am noting natural indications of a very severe winter event within 5-10 days in my area (PA). Indications for a mid to late winter superstorm such as 1993 or January 1996 or even the great NE Blizzard of 1888 , may or may not be included within the 5-10 day period. Such precision is beyond my methods of natural indications.

To explain what I mean by natural indications:

the majority of my work is what I call natural indicators, daily observation of changes in the environment such as wildlife movements, natural cycles variations, etc. The remainder is mostly by charting weather patterns of analog years. My meteorological knowledge is definitely unequal to most here, being about 25 years out of date, but I am updating that knowlege as best I can. My forecasts tend to be long range, seasonal, and somewhat general. At times (such as this) dramatic natural indicator changes can be combined with meteorological work in shorter time frames to give an added push to a met forecast probability. Forecasts are also targeted to the environment I observe in my local area, but of course the local weather is shared by adjoining areas according to the size of the weather systems so there is a larger footprint to the forecast. My local area indicated in all my forecasts is about 80 miles ENE of Philadelphia.

BTW, I do not forecast professionally, it is a hobby, but I do a winter weather forecast since 1992 and the same for a forum of energy traders since 1997. They are mostly interested in if it is going to be a colder or warmer than normal winter or summer, grin. My biggest bust was the winter of 2001-2002, which I thought would be a lot colder than it turned out, my largest success was forecasting a "winter hurricane" type storm for the Jan-March 1993 period. (Forgive the winter hurricane term, I tend to lapse into almanac weather terms)

My compliments on your always interesting and informative posts and discussions.

IF this pans out I will proclaim you a genus roebear. But I must say i'm skeptical. This doesn't make you wrong but events such as JAN 1996 and MAR 1993 are so rare and feature near perfect timing that you only get them once a decade or even longer.

As far as my forecasting is concerned, ill think i'll stick to my NWP data, pattern recognition and teleconnections.

[wxguy25]

I like the Cad Signature....Hopefully the 50/50 will be further south than the models are currently showing when the 3rd Clipper comes in and force it to move and dig even further to the south than its currently showing. Maybe we can get some overrunning type precip.

In the long run of things, i have heard from various sources that day 7 12z ECMWF shows a dual sturcture between the pv and 50/50 with a Mod. Neg Nao.

yes. I noted that In my graphics. the data does not handle low level cold air very well -- and especially NOT from 5-7 days out so I would keep an eye on this.

My idea is that the PV and 50-50 will phase together (which is what a dual structure can indicate) and form one large 50-50 low / vortex in SE canada sending the Ridge over the NATL into severe amplification establishing the first strong -NAO of the season.

[Wnghs2007]

I like the Cad Signature....Hopefully the 50/50 will be further south than the models are currently showing when the 3rd Clipper comes in and force it to move and dig even further to the south than its currently showing. Maybe we can get some overrunning type precip.

In the long run of things, i have heard from various sources that day 7 12z ECMWF shows a dual sturcture between the pv and 50/50 with a Mod. Neg Nao.

yes. I noted that In my graphics. the data does not handle low level cold air very well -- and especially NOT from 5-7 days out so I would keep an eye on this.

My idea is that the PV and 50-50 will phase together (which is what a dual structure can indicate) and form one large 50-50 low / vortex in SE canada sending the Ridge over the NATL into severe amplification establishing the first strong -NAO of the season.

Coolio.

[wxguy25]

I like the Cad Signature....Hopefully the 50/50 will be further south than the models are currently showing when the 3rd Clipper comes in and force it to move and dig even further to the south than its currently showing. Maybe we can get some overrunning type precip.

In the long run of things, i have heard from various sources that day 7 12z ECMWF shows a dual sturcture between the pv and 50/50 with a Mod. Neg Nao.

yes. I noted that In my graphics. the data does not handle low level cold air very well -- and especially NOT from 5-7 days out so I would keep an eye on this.

My idea is that the PV and 50-50 will phase together (which is what a dual structure can indicate) and form one large 50-50 low / vortex in SE canada sending the Ridge over the NATL into severe amplification establishing the first strong -NAO of the season.

Coolio.

this is what you need for a real good CAD situation

[Chris the Weather Man]

wxguy 25,
FWIW, I am noting natural indications of a very severe winter event within 5-10 days in my area (PA). Indications for a mid to late winter superstorm such as 1993 or January 1996 or even the great NE Blizzard of 1888 , may or may not be included within the 5-10 day period. Such precision is beyond my methods of natural indications.

To explain what I mean by natural indications:

the majority of my work is what I call natural indicators, daily observation of changes in the environment such as wildlife movements, natural cycles variations, etc. The remainder is mostly by charting weather patterns of analog years. My meteorological knowledge is definitely unequal to most here, being about 25 years out of date, but I am updating that knowlege as best I can. My forecasts tend to be long range, seasonal, and somewhat general. At times (such as this) dramatic natural indicator changes can be combined with meteorological work in shorter time frames to give an added push to a met forecast probability. Forecasts are also targeted to the environment I observe in my local area, but of course the local weather is shared by adjoining areas according to the size of the weather systems so there is a larger footprint to the forecast. My local area indicated in all my forecasts is about 80 miles ENE of Philadelphia.

BTW, I do not forecast professionally, it is a hobby, but I do a winter weather forecast since 1992 and the same for a forum of energy traders since 1997. They are mostly interested in if it is going to be a colder or warmer than normal winter or summer, grin. My biggest bust was the winter of 2001-2002, which I thought would be a lot colder than it turned out, my largest success was forecasting a "winter hurricane" type storm for the Jan-March 1993 period. (Forgive the winter hurricane term, I tend to lapse into almanac weather terms)

My compliments on your always interesting and informative posts and discussions.

IF this pans out I will proclaim you a genus roebear. But I must say i'm skeptical. This doesn't make you wrong but events such as JAN 1996 and MAR 1993 are so rare and feature near perfect timing that you only get them once a decade or even longer.

As far as my forecasting is concerned, ill think i'll stick to my NWP data, pattern recognition and teleconnections.

So Would I.......

[wxguy25]

ALright Lets let this thread die.