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000
FXUS64 KMRX 200219
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
917 PM EST WED JAN 19 2005
.DISCUSSION...THE LOW CLOUDS ERODED THIS EVENING OVER ALL BUT EXTREME NE TN AND SWRN VA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM SE IN THE STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT...AND ALSO THE LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM OR SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z GFS MODEL RUN DEPICTS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RATHER WELL...AND
KEEPS SE TN AND MOST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS WITH LOWEST RH AT THE 850 MB LEVEL OVERNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ARE INDICATED FOR ANY SOURCE OF LIFT...WITH AREA WSR-88D RADARS REMAINING ECHO FREE. PROBABLY WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY SE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NE OVERNIGHT...AND SEE HOW THAT AFFECTS MIN TEMP FORECAST AS WINDS HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...WILL FRESHEN THE GRIDS...WEB PRODUCTS AND ZFP SHORTLY. SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO UNFOLD...AT THIS POINT...IN LINE WITH LATEST FORECAST AND SPS.
&&
and their currentSPS
SPS:SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST WED JAN 19 2005
NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-201000-
315 PM EST (215 PM CST) WED JAN 19 2005
...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN SATURDAY WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. TRAVEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND MAY BE DIFFICULT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS.
RESIDENTS OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE RADIO AND TV STATIONS...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
$$
