HPC discussion Jan 20

[cycloneye]

CONCERNING THE SYS MOVING OFF THE MID ATL COAST ON DAY 3/SUN...THE
00Z ETA AND ECMWF WERE THE MOST NLY SOLN WITH THE SFC LOW. BOTH
SYS WERE IDENTICAL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW OVER NRN WV AT
00Z/23 AND ARE WITHIN 2 MB OF EACH OTHER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYS ATTM. BOTH OF THESE MODELS..ALONG WITH THE 00Z NOGAPS...BUILT
MORE H5 RIDGING AHEAD OF THE TROF ATTM THAN THE OTHER OP MODELS
AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEMBS. AT THIS
TIME...WE PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD THE 00Z/20 GFS SOLN. THIS SEEMS
TO HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE MAJORITY OF THE OP RUNS AND THE NCEP
ENS MEMBERS WITH THE MORE SLY TRACK OF THE SYS. HOWEVER WE WILL
HEDGE JUST A BIT MORE N WITH THE SYS...TOWARD THE IDEA OF THE
ETA/ECMWF. THE ECWMF HAS BEEN THE MODEL ALL OF THE OTHERS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WE DID NOT WANT TO
TOTALLY DISCOUNT ITS FARTHER N TRACK.


I say that by friday we will have a better idea of the track and intensity of the storm.