Eastern/Southern Midwest storm Threat Growing!!!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
215 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS S/W TROF...ASSOCD WITH WKNG BLOCKING EVENT
ON WEST COAST...MOVG W OVR NRN OK/SRN KS TDA. RADAR SHOWS SOME LGT
PCPN OVR CNTRL KS SPRDG SE INTO SW MO...BUT NOTHING REPORTED IN
MTRS. EXPCT CHC SPRINKLES IN SRN PTN OF CWA THIS EVENING GIVEN LOW
LVL DRY AIR. SFC TROF IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CNTRL IA WSW INTO
WRN OK. THIS TROF WILL MOV THRU THE CWA TNGT INTO WED MRNG...BRINING
NWLY FLOW TO THE CWA.

ETA/UKMET DEPICTS STNG 850 MB CAA ACRS CWA WED MRNG...MAKING TEMPS
MUCH CLDR FOR WED. ETA/UKMET/GFS DEPCIT LOW STRATUS DECK/FOG WITH
INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE...MAINLY BLW 850 MB. PLAN TO MENT
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES FOR WED. NEXT CHNC FOR PCPN WILL BE FRI AFTN
AS 500 MB TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. EXPECT THE PCPN TO START AS RA
GIVEN STNG WAA AND SLY WINDS. HWVR...MDLS DO NOT AGREE ON TEMPS FOR
FRI NGT INTO SAT...WHICH WILL MAKE TIMING OF PCPN TYPE DIFFICULT.

...EXTENDED...
COMPLICATED EXTENDED FORECAST AS UPPER AIR PATTERN MODULATING FROM A
WESTERN RIDGE TO A PROGRESSIVE TROF. ECWMF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX IN LINE
TIL SATURDAY EVENING WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE REGION.

WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW FRIDAY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN -RA/-FZRA. LOOK FOR -RA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST. STRENGTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE KEY TO REST OF THE FORECAST.

ECWMF HOLDS MAIN UPPER ENERGY BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
THE TROF/CLOSED LOW OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENT UNFOLDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. 00Z/12Z GFS VERY SIMILAR
WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS TEXAS AND MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY ON MONDAY...ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OBVIOUS IMPLICATION OF THIS STORM
TRACK WOULD BE A HEAVY SNOW EVENT ACROSS CWA ON MONDAY WITH
DEFORMATION ZONE. ALTHOUGH...DGEX AND CANADIAN ARE FURTHER SOUTH
WITH LOW TRACK/RESULTANT PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND ECWMF HAS MUCH
WEAKER LOW MOVING ACROSS GULF COAST. WITH THIS WIDE RANGE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HAVE ONLY ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS TO FORECAST AND
MENTIONED RAIN OR SNOW. SYSTEM PULLS OUT BY TUESDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

Only 6-7 days away, I think it really has the potential to be a very big storm. As I said in the last Thread... The Midwest especially southern and central midwest's turn is coming for a possible 1 foot plus storm, and maybe in of all cities St. Louis, MO!!! Nothing to hype up yet... But gotta watch the next several days.

[ohiostorm]

East Central Ohio needs a storm. We've missed every storm this year so far by less the 50 miles. Help us out!

[dawgpound]

Did you miss the ice storm and the flooding?????????

[ohiostorm]

OHHHHH we've had our fair share of flooding. Some places still flooding from rains earlier this month. We missed the big ice storm. We haven't had any real winter storms this year. Just threats and forecasts that never come true.

[krysof]

That's what they said about the northeast, except snowbound Boston, they are so lucky and they will get hit again tonight with up to 6 inches or more. It makes me so angry. That's why I'm moving to Boston soon and watch for the ice storm in the south, could be severe in a few places. It's only Tuesday though.

[sertorius]

Gothpunk-Il-Wx:

This could possibly be the one that lays down snow from Salina to Saint Louis. Still way early, and south and east would get more based on the track as of now, but I even get in on the fun here in Lawrence/Kansas City. The 12z euro is the first run of the euro to bring it that far south-will be interesting to watch future runs. But first, I need to watch Friday/Saturday as the gfs, eta, and ukmet (12Z) runs bring some lt. precip to myu area. All this of course depends on the track and the cold-at least we have something to think about!!!

[Guest]

East Central Ohio needs a storm. We've missed every storm this year so far by less the 50 miles. Help us out!

For your sake i hope the low takes a further southward track then talked about above. A track like mentioned above would more then likely mean another snow/mixed event going to rain for your area and keep most of the heavier snows well to your north and west.

Believe it or not i am pulling for you and the rest of those in the eastern most areas of the OV (Columbus-South and East)into the MA. You all have waited long enough.

[sertorius]

Hey King of Weather:

I always enjoy your posts and analysis-could you please pull for my area as well??? I have only had 1 inch of snow this year and 1 inch of ice all at the same time(Well we had that freak of nature in November)-I need this deal either Friday/Saturday or Sunday/Monday to pan out or I'm looking down the barrell of a 1930's winter here-cold but now snow!!!!

[madscientist]

That's what they said about the northeast, except snowbound Boston, they are so lucky and they will get hit again tonight with up to 6 inches or more. It makes me so angry. That's why I'm moving to Boston soon and watch for the ice storm in the south, could be severe in a few places. It's only Tuesday though.

You can bet on there being a snow drought when you do decide to move there.

[madscientist]

You people in Michigan get to have all the fun. Besides, King, weren't you in the path of the blizzard? We need snow here in the southern Midwest. Sertious hasn't seen a huge snow in god knows how long. Here in St. Louis, we haven't had a six incher since December of 2000. We've seen bust, after bust, after bust. Hell, when a meteorologist predicts 6 or more inches for St. Louis, you can almost count on the forecast busting.

[BlizzzardMan]

And please pull for Pittsburgh to get a good snowstorm in the near future! First, we miss out ONCE AGAIN on the big snow and get a wintry mix instead, as usual. Then, our football team blows another AFC Title game! I think we've suffered enough!

[madscientist]

And please pull for Pittsburgh to get a good snowstorm in the near future! First, we miss out ONCE AGAIN on the big snow and get a wintry mix instead, as usual. Then, our football team blows another AFC Title game! I think we've suffered enough!

I was pulling for the Steelers to beat the crap out of the Patriots. The only reason why you guys lost is because roethlesberger threw 2 or 3 interceptions. He is, however, very good as a rookie, and I hope to see you guys make it to the big game next year. I will, however, pull for whatever NFC team is in the superbowl to beat you guys, though.

And that sucks that you guys missed out on the big storm.

[sertorius]

Man guys, the 0z gfs does not look good-the track is great-lots of precip-main problem, if you look at the soundings, it is all rain from Salina-Saint Louis untill you get on the back side. I posted on this in the Lawrence/Kansas City thread. Even if the low goes further south, which it prob. will (follow the euro!!) and we don't get massive Warm air pumped in here, the cold air gets scoured out by the storm on Friday/Saturday. It is wild: Atlanta will prob. have an ice storm on Saturday while here in Lawrence, I will have rain and 35 on Saturday. Such is life 50 miles from the dry line!!!!