January 26, 2005 Clipper: More Snow for Parts of Northeast

[donsutherland1]

An energetic clipper system will bring a swath of accumulating snow, mainly from the far nothern Mid-Atlantic region to central New England. Several inches of snow are likely in New York, Boston, and Providence. Cape Cod could see a significant snowfall (greater than 6") in areas. A few spots on the Cape could see 10". As one heads south of Newark, snowfall amounts will likely rapidly diminish given the system's track.

My initial estimates are as follows:

Baltimore: Coating or less
Boston: 3"-7"
Danbury: 2"-5"
Islip: 3"-6"
New York City: 2"-5"
Newark: 2"-4"
Philadelphia: Less than 1"
Plymouth: 4"-8"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-5"
Providence: 3"-7"
White Plains: 2"-5"

[Anonymous]

Don,

When will the NW suburbs of DC get into the snow action? We are snow starved 3.5 inches YTD. Just been horrible!

[donsutherland1]

BEF,

A week ago, Washington, DC (DCA) had seen just 0.1" snow for the season. That figure has risen to 4.1". This trend should continue.

The new ENSO regional data has finally been posted (there had been a server problem) and I'll be taking a closer look at it tonight. At first glance, there are a number of indications that:

1) The cold will relax somewhat for a week to 10 days (reaffirms analogs though a little earlier in terms of timing) but the cold pattern will not be decimated. There will be no return to the balmy days of the first half of January through at least mid February and probably beyond.
2) The cold will return.
3) Snowstorm opportunties will be present/there could be a suppressed system
4) Emerging data appears to support the analog idea of a snowier than normal February in DCA.

[Anonymous]

Thanks Don. Hopefully, you enjoyed your 12+ inches from the Blizzard in New York.

Even DCA has received more snow than the Northern Shenandoah Valley this year, all be it only a small amount more, still this is not the norm.

History does support our biggest snows usually come in Feb/Mar. I would like to see at least one "BIG" snowstorm this season.

Your early season predicts seem to be $$$! Most of the action in NE, with Boston doing quite well, and NY in the action as well. DCA always seems to be on the borderline and all the stars have to line up for decent snow in our region.

[Stephanie]

Last night that little clipper was predicted to give us only flurries. It surprised me and many other commuters last night when we were faced with a nice squall.

It seems like tonight and perhaps even tomorrow we may be hit with other "clippers".

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

Baltimore: Coating or less; Actual: None
Boston: 3"-7"; Actual: 5.4"
Danbury: 2"-5"; Actual: 2.3" (Carmel, NY nearest reporting location)
Islip: 3"-6"; Actual: 0.8"
New York City: 2"-5"; Actual: Trace
Newark: 2"-4"; Actual: 0.1"
Philadelphia: Less than 1"; Actual: Trace
Plymouth: 4"-8"; Actual: 4.8"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-5"; Actual: 3.0" (Newburgh, NY nearest reporting location)
Providence: 3"-7"; Actual: 2.2"
White Plains: 2"-5"; Actual: 1.4"

For the second event in a row, my bias was on the high side.