Computer Models now with triple capacity

[cycloneye]

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The National Weather Service has tripled its computer capacity in an effort to get ahead of the weather by crunching numbers faster than ever.

Millions of weather measurements are fed into computers every day and run through programs called weather models that use complex formulas to calculate the weather and how it is likely to change.

With increased computing speed, those models can be run more quickly and can use more data to improve forecasting.

"Literally, we are going from making 450 billion calculations per second to 1.3 trillion calculations per second," David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service, said in a statement Thursday.

Louis W. Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, said the increase in computing power means the agency will be able to run higher resolution models with more sophisticated applied physics and use these models in the prediction of hurricanes, floods, tornadoes and winter storms.

"The advanced computers are critical to advancing NOAA's ability to make ever-increasingly accurate weather forecasts and climate outlooks," he said.

The new supercomputers are part of a $180 million, nine-year contract with IBM


Let's see if this now more capacity for the models can be beneficial to the forecasters to then make a better long range guidance forecast.

[NWIASpotter]

I don't know if this will necesarily help with the computer models guidance as it will with just getting them out sooner. Basically, instead of waiting until 11 for the GFS to come out we may get to see it closer to 10... This is still some great news!!!

[Stormsfury]

I don't know if this will necesarily help with the computer models guidance as it will with just getting them out sooner. Basically, instead of waiting until 11 for the GFS to come out we may get to see it closer to 10... This is still some great news!!!

The former ETA (now the NAM) has actually scored some coups lately with recognition and SFC progs this winter, and has the hot hand in the SR. Hopefully, something can be done to improve the really Good for .... GFS model ...

SF

[ALhurricane]

As my synoptic professor always preached to my class, computer models will only be as good as the data going into them. It's great we're getting faster machines, but the truth of the matter is that until we get more data into the models, then I think the improvements will not be as spectacular.

I know it's a pipe dream, but we really need more RAOB sites in the CONUS. Throw in the fact that the Pacific and Atlantic are data void and will be for some time, then I think significant modeling improvements are still a long way off.

Just my 2 cents, but of course I welcome all technological improvements.

[PurdueWx80]

As my synoptic professor always preached to my class, computer models will only be as good as the data going into them. It's great we're getting faster machines, but the truth of the matter is that until we get more data into the models, then I think the improvements will not be as spectacular.

I know it's a pipe dream, but we really need more RAOB sites in the CONUS. Throw in the fact that the Pacific and Atlantic are data void and will be for some time, then I think significant modeling improvements are still a long way off.

Just my 2 cents, but of course I welcome all technological improvements.

A joint project between Taiwan and the US will allow for roughly 3000 global soundings per day later this summer. The project is known as COSMIC in the US and was known as ROCSAT-3 (Repub of China satellite 3) in Taiwan (think it has some new acronym now). These will be highly accurate into the lower troposphere (but not to the surface) and will be available over oceans and continents once the GPS satellites are up and running. This is expanding on already-used GPS technology - expect to hear about it within the next year. Check out http://www.cosmic.ucar.edu for more info.

Having the computer power to compute more advanced physical equations that can account for all data going in (assuming it isn't garbage...or that it's only so accurate) should make the models perform much better.

Also, the NAM/Eta performed much better during the hurricane season last year than was expected. More importantly (for me) was it's performance on predicting the development of mesoscale convective vortices and their resulting convection last summer. Up until the change in physics last spring/summer, most models were unable to do this correctly. The change is a good thing.

[ChiTownMC]

As my synoptic professor always preached to my class, computer models will only be as good as the data going into them. It's great we're getting faster machines, but the truth of the matter is that until we get more data into the models, then I think the improvements will not be as spectacular.

I know it's a pipe dream, but we really need more RAOB sites in the CONUS. Throw in the fact that the Pacific and Atlantic are data void and will be for some time, then I think significant modeling improvements are still a long way off.

Just my 2 cents, but of course I welcome all technological improvements.

I agree. Once we start observing the oceans better, you will see way better accuracy outputs from the models.

[NWIASpotter]

Having the computer power to compute more advanced physical equations that can account for all data going in (assuming it isn't garbage...or that it's only so accurate) should make the models perform much better.

Also, the NAM/Eta performed much better during the hurricane season last year than was expected. More importantly (for me) was it's performance on predicting the development of mesoscale convective vortices and their resulting convection last summer. Up until the change in physics last spring/summer, most models were unable to do this correctly. The change is a good thing.

I am agreeing with you there completely, having faster and more capable computers will help in doing different equations that are harder and do them faster.

The ETA last year was a good success I thought, during the spring/summer it was always decent at picking up with the mesoscale patterns, etc..