Current Thoughts for sun-tue

[whiteoutwx1796]

GFS goes out the window. Eta is not the best either, somewhere in between, but if i'd have to choose which one to ride i'd have to choose the eta as it has support from the highly talented euro. 12z eta has the low going across southeast tip of ohio into southern nj norther va-- 12z Euro has a similar track- if this would to occur A swath of 3-6" of snow would fall from PHL THROUGH CTRL NJ nORTH East into NYC- . Li would get 2-5" from this particular event as winds from the ocean easterly sometimes southeasterly would change some snow to rain for them, while for western sections by the time the changeover occurs it might be very light rain/drizzle as the moisture should have subsided by then-- The High stays strong enough to damn the cold, retreats just in time as pcp starts to wind down in many southern affected areas by this sytem. A band of 4-8" would fall across the mid hudson valley....North of the tappanzee bridge because of limited mixing. Ratios should start off 15:1 during the onset of the sorm and then gradually decrease to normal levels of 10:1.


So heres my take:

Bstn: 7-8"

North west CT: 6-7"

Northeast NJ: 5-6"

NYC: 5" for CPK.

Eastern LI: (UPTON on east) 2-3 " Upton on west 3-4"

PHL: 4-5"

DC: 1-2"

Overall moderate event with many more chances into early march for places anwyhere north of Baltimore. This is my Initial thoughts with final call/thoughts with a map tomorrow night.- Enjoy