Winter storm update, 12Z NAM beginning to hammer big cities.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Just glimpsed at the 12Z NAM model and it advertizes higher snowfall totals for DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. This following link is the NAM model for 30 and 36 hours or Thursday afternoon and Thursday night .

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036s.gif

The storm track is slightly further north and stronger. Consequently there maybe a mix of precip in southern Maryland and the lower eastern shore while areas from DC, Annapolis, and Baltimore points north and east to Philadelphia could see all snow with the highest snowfall totals of possibly 5-10 inches. Locally higher amounts maybe realized with this. I have not received the 12Z GFS yet. But the consesus is for a track further north, possibly up along the coast and consequently snowfall totals maybe quite a bit higher than previous model estimates.

Will keep an eye on this. I suspect winter storm warnings maybe needed later tonight for this storm from DC to Philadelphia. Even NYC could see a 4-8" snowstorm if the NAM solution is correct, especially in the southern burbs near Sandy Hook and into the Staten Island vicinity as well as NYC itself.

Jim

[Persepone]

Here is the Winter Weather Watch posted by the Taunton, MA office. Apparently they expect it to come this far north....

More snow for RI, MA... (and Cape Cod)

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
230 PM EST WED FEB 23 2005

MAZ017>024-RIZ001>008-250900-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-DUKES MA-EASTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATTLEBOROUGH...BARNSTABLE...BARRINGTON...
BRISTOL...BROCKTON...FALL RIVER...FALMOUTH...NANTUCKET...
NEW BEDFORD...NEWPORT...NORTH ATTLEBOROUGH...PLYMOUTH...PROVIDENCE...
SOUTH KINGSTOWN...TAUNTON...VINEYARD HAVEN...WARWICK AND WOONSOCKET
230 PM EST WED FEB 23 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH. THE WATCH INCLUDES RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY SNOW
TO RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY BECOME HEAVY
BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE
ENDING BY MID MORNING.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH 8 INCH
AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER
WEATHER DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

$$

JWD/WTB