NEW MM5 CRUSHES WESTERN NC

[QCWx]

The new MM5 has trended back to the cold side. It buries GSO with at least a foot of snow with the entire 321 corrdior from Boone to gastonia doing very well. Charlotte could even see significant snow if this model verifies. Images will be forthcoming as soon as I can get the meteograms ready.

[DS]

I think the MM5 is not alone. Its got the European, UKMET and even the GFS (new run pending) on its side. The canadian is in the mix too.

[krysof]

what about the nyc suburbs?

[MWatkins]

The good news is...its the MM5.

Actually I shouldn't say that...I'm not entirely sure how well the Airforce model handles winter patterns.

It looks like the 00Z GFS guidance so far is in line with the 12Z guidance...with the low hugging the SC coast a little more closely in 30 hours (overnight tomorrow)...I believe they are putting out some public advisories in NC alerting folks to the possibility of snow tonight though...looks like it's gonna be a close call.

MW

[MWatkins]

The new MM5 has trended back to the cold side. It buries GSO with at least a foot of snow with the entire 321 corrdior from Boone to gastonia doing very well. Charlotte could even see significant snow if this model verifies. Images will be forthcoming as soon as I can get the meteograms ready.

The 0Z GFS also places the 850MB freeze line across the northern 1/3 of NC in 30 hours...it is only a tad north of that position now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030m.gif

I'm no winter weather expert...but it looks like a very close call to me.

MW

[QCWx]

New GFS says at least a foot N&W of Charlotte and 6-10" in the city.

[krysof]

and than it nails nyc

[DS]

Raleigh NWS is considering winter storm watches/ warnings. I bet the GSP NWS will issue a winter storm warning for CLT up the I-77 corridor. With this much model support, it seems like a no brainer. Winter weather advisories will probably go out for upstate SC into CLT

[QCWx]

I dont throw heavy terms around like this usually but...

If the GFS and MM5 are correct...you can throw around the B word for the mountains, possibly even foothills and western piedmont.

[Brent]

I dont throw heavy terms around like this usually but...

If the GFS and MM5 are correct...you can throw around the B word for the mountains, possibly even foothills and western piedmont.

I wish I was in Gatlinburg THIS Weekend...

[QCWx]

I dont throw heavy terms around like this usually but...

If the GFS and MM5 are correct...you can throw around the B word for the mountains, possibly even foothills and western piedmont.

I wish I was in Gatlinburg THIS Weekend...

I'm not usually this pumped but if the GFS is correct I am hit with comma head snow. Quite possibly there could be snowfall rates matching or exceeding the 93 blizzard in this area. I dont even want to think about what would happen in the mountains given what could happen in my backyard. Lets just say it wouldnt be historic, it would be biblical.