The Death of El Nino

[snow_wizzard]

I think we can all expect a major reshuffling of the deck with our weather pattern very soon! The El Nino has totally collapsed over the past couple of weeks, and is actually showing signs of turning into a minor cold event.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

Once you arrive at this site click on NCODA and then SST anomaly. You will see the cold water taking over off the west coast of South America. This should spell, much drier weather for Cal, and much more active in the Pacific NW. The rest of the nation should expect a much less amplified pattern. It should be noted that the atmosphere could take a few more weeks to react to this change in SST's.

[azsnowman]

I think we can all expect a major reshuffling of the deck with our weather pattern very soon! The El Nino has totally collapsed over the past couple of weeks, and is actually showing signs of turning into a minor cold event.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

Once you arrive at this site click on NCODA and then SST anomaly. You will see the cold water taking over off the west coast of South America. This should spell, much drier weather for Cal, and much more active in the Pacific NW. The rest of the nation should expect a much less amplified pattern. It should be noted that the atmosphere could take a few more weeks to react to this change in SST's.

"Adios, hasta la vista baby!" I "KNOW" I'll be eating my words in a few months....but I cannot walk around in the yard due to 3" of standing water, trees in the forest are falling over due to the roots being water logged.....roofs are leaking and I haven't played GOLF ALL WINTER LONG

Dennis

[MWatkins]

I think we can all expect a major reshuffling of the deck with our weather pattern very soon! The El Nino has totally collapsed over the past couple of weeks, and is actually showing signs of turning into a minor cold event.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

Once you arrive at this site click on NCODA and then SST anomaly. You will see the cold water taking over off the west coast of South America. This should spell, much drier weather for Cal, and much more active in the Pacific NW. The rest of the nation should expect a much less amplified pattern. It should be noted that the atmosphere could take a few more weeks to react to this change in SST's.

"Not so fast...my friend."

-Lee Corso.

I think the cold expansion east of the dateline will ultimately keep another nino from brewing...there is a post in the tropical forum that covers the topic well...the chances of a nino return have actually gone up a little...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=58246

Also...I wrote a quick update right on my homepage on this topic replete with links if you want to check it out...i would cut and paste but the links wouldn't be retained so here it is...

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/

But at least...we should see neutral conditions in the next few months...

MW

[snow_wizzard]

MW...This stuff really interests me, and I'm sure there is a lot I don't know about it yet. I have noticed that the OLR decreased sharply in the 160W - 160E zone recently. Last fall I noticed that the OLR was not reacting to this El Nino as it has to past warm events. The OLR remained at or above normal levels, whereas in every past El Nino back to 1975 or so the OLR went sharply below normal.

Do you think the OLR not reacting in a normal way to the El Nino is why the observed weather patterns this winter lacked a true El Nino forced signature? Also, do you think the recent sharp drop in OLR is related to the burst of westerly winds?

[MWatkins]

MW...This stuff really interests me, and I'm sure there is a lot I don't know about it yet. I have noticed that the OLR decreased sharply in the 160W - 160E zone recently. Last fall I noticed that the OLR was not reacting to this El Nino as it has to past warm events. The OLR remained at or above normal levels, whereas in every past El Nino back to 1975 or so the OLR went sharply below normal.

Do you think the OLR not reacting in a normal way to the El Nino is why the observed weather patterns this winter lacked a true El Nino forced signature? Also, do you think the recent sharp drop in OLR is related to the burst of westerly winds?

I believe you're referring to Outgoing Longwave Radiation when you refer to ORL...

OLR...as you probably know...is a way to measure the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation)...and MJO's can indeed initiate Kelvin waves and correspondingly warm the Pacific.

I know that MJO's can be in phase with wind bursts (and perhaps may be the actual cause of them)...but there is a considerable school of thought that positive MJO's can initiate El Nino events such as the one in 1997.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/08012001/

In an effort to be international...the UK research community is looking into whether the combination of an MJO and WWB may have been responsible for the rapid development of the 1997 nino...

http://www.atm.ch.cam.ac.uk/acmsu/newsl ... ingo1.html

Also...I ran across this presentation from the ECMWF (a well-respected bunch of modelers)...it's not as detailed as a paper but you can get some good info from it as well on the same subject...

http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meeting ... jo%20enso'

So...it would make sense to me that ORL anoms should be running negative over the eastern and central Pacific right now as the event in question is just getting underway...what will be interesting to see is if the ORL positive anoms propogate across the Pacific in phase with the current WWB/Kelvin wave.

As far as your question...I'd have to know over which area you're measuring the ORL anoms...160W to 160E is a pretty small area...and ORL anoms can pass through that window fairly quickly...

Hope that I have kinda sorta helped here...that's not an easy question to go after...

MW

[snow_wizzard]

Thank you! That is helpful. I was under the impression that 160W to 160E is a crucial area in some way....

It is puzzling how the SST anoms continue to drop in all regions!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ssta_c.gif

Seemingly no response to the Kelvin wave. This El Nino episode seems to be making its own rules!