Any new updates on next weekends snowstorm?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Noreaster_Jer_04
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donsutherland1
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Re: Any new updates on next weekends snowstorm?
John,
My idea remains unchanged from that listed in my March 13-26, 2005 pattern discussion: A storm moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast and heading northeastward from there could bring at least some accumulations of snow from Philadelphia to Boston during the 3/17-19 period. Parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could see a significant snowfall.
A shot of colder air should follow the storm before moderation sets in.
Several points:
1) The PNA has gone negative. A negative to strongly negative PNA has been the norm for big East Coast snowstorms in March and April
2) The extreme block remains exceptionally strong. The March 13 NAO value was -5.264. This largely rules out any inland cutters. One wrinkle is possible: a system tries to head for the Ohio Valley but fizzles out while strong secondary cyclogenesis occurs on the East Coast.
Such blocks have not been common, the data sample on which the modeling has been developed is limited with respect to such extreme blocks. Therefore, don't be surprised if the modeling varies widely. The changing of the seasons also reduces overall modeling reliability.
3) In the past, extreme blocks, particularly during El Niño winters, have been followed at some point by a major snowstorm. It remains to be seen whether this will happen this year but until the NAO goes positive, one cannot rule out such a prospect.
4) At this point in time, Philadelphia remains very much in the game for accumulating snow during the March 17-19 period.
My idea remains unchanged from that listed in my March 13-26, 2005 pattern discussion: A storm moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast and heading northeastward from there could bring at least some accumulations of snow from Philadelphia to Boston during the 3/17-19 period. Parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could see a significant snowfall.
A shot of colder air should follow the storm before moderation sets in.
Several points:
1) The PNA has gone negative. A negative to strongly negative PNA has been the norm for big East Coast snowstorms in March and April
2) The extreme block remains exceptionally strong. The March 13 NAO value was -5.264. This largely rules out any inland cutters. One wrinkle is possible: a system tries to head for the Ohio Valley but fizzles out while strong secondary cyclogenesis occurs on the East Coast.
Such blocks have not been common, the data sample on which the modeling has been developed is limited with respect to such extreme blocks. Therefore, don't be surprised if the modeling varies widely. The changing of the seasons also reduces overall modeling reliability.
3) In the past, extreme blocks, particularly during El Niño winters, have been followed at some point by a major snowstorm. It remains to be seen whether this will happen this year but until the NAO goes positive, one cannot rule out such a prospect.
4) At this point in time, Philadelphia remains very much in the game for accumulating snow during the March 17-19 period.
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