Well, I said if something interesting popped up:
Tonight-according to 0Z NAM, I may see a few flakes late tonight early tomorrow morning
The 18Z GFS shows a blockbuster storm for the plains next Tuesday-Thursday. Must be noted, this storm has been hinted at by other models as well-if the 18Z GFS were to verify, I could actually see my biggest snow of the season next Wed,/Thursday. Do I buy it-not for a minuet!!! However, it does look like next week may shape up to be stormy and a bit below average temp. wise for this area. The EURO has some similar ideas as well in regards to temps. Something to watch-of course, how many times have I said that this winter??LOL!!!
Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
One quick note before I hit the slopes with a 2 and 5 year old
Today-Yesterday: Windy!!!!! Had wind gusts close to 40 mph yesterday and looking for the same today.
Sunday-next week: Most models agree on below average termps. Prob. in the 40's-of course our normal high is now 55 and our normal low is now above freezing so if we are in the upper 40's, we are almost about 10 degrees below normal. Translation: it takes one heck of a cold air mass to give use snow-would have to be one of the coldest of the season to give us a significant snow. Difference: the EURO is very progressive and does not show much of a storm. The GFS has for the past few days in varying degress and varying tracks given this area and the Northern Plains a pretty good storm Tuesday-Thursday. Most likely be mostly rain here as 850 temps. are real boarder line but areas to our North could see a pretty good snow if the 0z and 06z GFS were to verify. Personally I think you have to follow the EURO-why: 1. it is a better model. 2. it follows the pattern of this winter. We have only had 2 stroms all year really intensify in the southern plains this year and one of those was in November (I should have known when that happened we were done for the winter-if we get a big snow in November, 9 out of 10 times, the rest of the winter is bland!!!) Thus, my call is for below normal temps. with varying chances of lt. rain here for next week. Areas North-say Nebraska (possibly even North of Omaha) could see snow but for here mostly rain. Have a great week!!
Today-Yesterday: Windy!!!!! Had wind gusts close to 40 mph yesterday and looking for the same today.
Sunday-next week: Most models agree on below average termps. Prob. in the 40's-of course our normal high is now 55 and our normal low is now above freezing so if we are in the upper 40's, we are almost about 10 degrees below normal. Translation: it takes one heck of a cold air mass to give use snow-would have to be one of the coldest of the season to give us a significant snow. Difference: the EURO is very progressive and does not show much of a storm. The GFS has for the past few days in varying degress and varying tracks given this area and the Northern Plains a pretty good storm Tuesday-Thursday. Most likely be mostly rain here as 850 temps. are real boarder line but areas to our North could see a pretty good snow if the 0z and 06z GFS were to verify. Personally I think you have to follow the EURO-why: 1. it is a better model. 2. it follows the pattern of this winter. We have only had 2 stroms all year really intensify in the southern plains this year and one of those was in November (I should have known when that happened we were done for the winter-if we get a big snow in November, 9 out of 10 times, the rest of the winter is bland!!!) Thus, my call is for below normal temps. with varying chances of lt. rain here for next week. Areas North-say Nebraska (possibly even North of Omaha) could see snow but for here mostly rain. Have a great week!!
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Just something interesting: the 12Z GFS gives this area a true bonifide snow strom at 102-120 hours. the column remians below freezing for the whole event and gives us close to 3/4 inch of moisture. If this were to verify, it would be our single biggest snow of the winter and of course, I'll be Colorado!!! A couple of things: 1. the mosture is very narrow-heaviest precip. stays in Kansas/Missouri and never goes further North untill the low reaches eastern Oklahoma when it hits Iowa. 2. We have seen this before at this time frame on the gfs all winter. The low will either track further south and leave us dry, further north and suck in warm air here (thus giving Nebraska the snow) or it will weaken it as we get closer. 3. Will be interesting to see what the EURO shows today on the 12Z. To be sure, the GFS has stuck to a stronger storm than the EURO for the past 4 days and the EURO has stuck to a weaker storm. 4. Climotology says this would be rain. 5. This winter's pattern says this will massevely weaken as we approach the time frame. 6. As far as balance, a big one in November and a big one in mid-March would balance the winter out. 7. I'll be out of town-count on us getting 10 inches with 50 mile an hour winds!!!! All in all, I think you really have to give this run about a 10% chance of verifing and would have to believe that by the 18Z and 0Z runs this is totally different. Still, it was quite a surprise!!!!
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Well the 18z GFS has the same precip, but it has began to track the low further North thus, our column is now above freezing. Things could change, but this does seem like a rain event for this area. One other note: still have the battle between the GFS and EURO. The EURO does not have any kind of storm for this area next week-at least one of any significance. Interestin gthat both models are sticking to thier guns for sure at least for now. Time will tell, but it looks like temps. way below normal for most of next week-lower 40's to possibly even upper 30's for highs with the possibility of a pretty good system in the Tuesday/Wed. time frame. If the GFS is correct, somebody from say Kansas City North could see a pretty significant snow for this time of year. This could be the biggest weather maker (if the GFS is correct) for the central plains in almost a month!!!! (by the way, the 0z GEM (Friday's) and the 0z NAM for Saturday has a similar solution to the GFS) Still, have to side with the EURO for now and go with colder temps. and not much of a storm.
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Just when you thought it was all over-I'm back!!! Had a great time in Colorado-my 5 year old loved to ski!! My 2 year old-well, let's just say it was too early!!! I promise, this thread will now die a slow death as we are now really approaching spring here in this area. Only reason to post, is that the GFS and MRF this morning want to bring a pretty vigorous low south of here Monday/Tuesday. Gee, where have I seen this before-could it have been for this week?? Well, the low went north and will give the Northern Plains a good snow and me just some sprinkles (I'm really getting concerned about lack of moisture here now if this pattern persists for any amount of time-had some dust blowing around yesterday!!) About the next low for early next week-I would imagine it would track North again just like everything this winter but I will watch it, as this is our final shot at something. I would like to see from rain from it but we will see. have a great day!!!!
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If only this storm could have formed in January!!!! What a perfect track for us in regards to snow if only there was more cold air to work with!!!! Quite a strong low wrped up in Oklahoma and we have gotten some much needed rain. Currently: Strong East-North East Wind-20-25 MPH with drizzle. On the radar, you can really see the precip rotating around the low-pretty awesome really!!
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