3/23-24/2005 Event: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

Based heavily on the 12z guidance using the 18z NAM to refine things, I believe parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England will see an accumulating snow, mainly tomorrow night.

Several factors will be important:

• Overcoming the warm ground (rain/cool day tomorrow should help ahead of the snow)
• VVs/Dynamic cooling
• Elevation
• The fact that the bulk of the snow will fall at night
• Temperatures close to freezing (somewhat below to barely above depending on the location)

I believe the greatest accumulations will occur on non-paved surfaces. However, in some areas where the snow is heaviest, accumulations likely will occur on paved surfaces, as well.

My initial estimates are as follows:

Boston: 1"-3"
Bridgeport: 1"-3"
Hartford: 3"-7"
New York City: 1" or less
Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"
Providence: 1"-3"
White Plains: 1"-2"
Worcester: 4"-8"

Possible daily snowfall record that could be challenged:

Hartford: 0.7" 3/23/1993

[Windtalker]

I think Harfords record will be broken by a long shot. If this storm CRANKS up off the coast of the Carolinas, we could get 8" Plus for the Hartford area.

[donsutherland1]

Per the 3/23 12z guidance, my revised estimates are as follows:

Boston: 2"-5"
Bridgeport: 2"-5"
Danbury: 4"-8"
Hartford: 4"-8"
New York City: 2" or less
Newark: 2" or less
Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"
Providence: 3"-7"
White Plains: 2"-4"
Worcester: 4"-8"

[donsutherland1]

Final Estimates:

Boston: 4"-8"
Bridgeport: 2"-5"
Danbury: 4"-8"
Hartford: 4"-8"
New York City: 2" or less
Newark: 2" or less
Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"
Providence: 3"-7"
White Plains: 2"-4"
Worcester: 4"-8"

The only location that was changed was Boston from 2"-5" to 4"-8".

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

Boston: 4"-8"; Actual: 0.5" (Bust)
Bridgeport: 2"-5"; Actual: 2.5"
Danbury: 4"-8"; Actual: 5.8"
Hartford: 4"-8"; Actual: 5.2"
New York City: 2" or lessl; Actual: 1.0"
Newark: 2" or less; Actual: 1.6"
Poughkeepsie: 4"-8"; Actual: 7.0"-8.0" (Rhinebeck: 7.0"; Red Hook: 8.0")
Providence: 3"-7"; Actual: 2.2" (Bust)
White Plains: 2"-4"; Actual: 3.1"-4.0" (Mamaroneck: 3.1"; Armonk: 4.0")
Worcester: 4"-8"; Actual: 3.6" (Bust)

Notes: For Poughkeepsie, I had to use two nearby locations, as the latest report was from 3/23 7:30 pm; For White Plains, I had to use two nearby locations because no final figure was reported for HPN on the PNS.