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ntxweatherwatcher wrote:Do the models look favorable for freezing rain to happen? I would prefer snow!!! Freezing rain is a mess....
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL UNDERGO SOME DRASTIC CHANGES TODAY. UPPER RIDGING
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND WILL FACILITATE
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A 1050MB+ ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA FALLING TO -10
TO -20F AS SPRAWLING HIGH EXPANDS SOUTHEAST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND ARRIVE
IN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AND 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS OCCURRING EARLY.
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER NORTH AMERICA AND NORTH TX WILL BE UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUS ONLY A SHALLOW...3000 FT DEEP...LAYER
OF COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLD AIR IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ON WHETHER
TO HOLD THE COLD AIR IN ALL WEEK OR ERODE IT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
IN FACT MOST OF THE 0Z GUIDANCE IS SHOWING US NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS NEVER FORECAST THESE SITUATIONS
WELL AND THEY ARE ALMOST ALWAYS TOO WARM. THE NAM IS PROBABLY THE
ONE MODEL TO TRUST...BUT IT ONLY FORECASTS OUT THROUGH NOON TUES.
THEREFORE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY IS EXTREMELY
LOW...AND THE FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN MEX MOS.
SHORTWAVE IN FAST UPPER FLOW COMES ACROSS TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THE LOW LEVELS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR BY THE NAM/GFS WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS. WHERE EVER
THE FREEZE LINE ENDS UP WILL BE THE LOCATION OF CONCERN FOR
FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A CHANCE OF FZRA NORTH OF COMANCHE...TO DENTON...TO PARIS
LINE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE JUST
COLD RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES COLDER WITH THE INITIAL SURGE...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
THAT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MORE DEFINITION AND STALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SURGE
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.
Charlie Brown, you're the only person I know who can take a wonderful model like the GFS and turn it into a problem. Maybe Lucy's right. Of all the Charlie Browns in the world, you're the Charlie Browniest.
NWS FTW TX
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON SURGES INTO NORTH TEXAS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE REACHED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO FROPA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY BUT WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
LIKE IT IS IN THE 20S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
LIMITED MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL
AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS
LIGHT RAIN.
Patty:Try to catch snowflakes on your tongue. It's fun.
Lucy Van Pelt: It's too early. I never eat December snowflakes. I always wait until January.
NWS FTW TX
STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW BARRELING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND WILL
CROSS THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE TEMPS FROM 0 TO -20F ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
MONTANA. GFS 6 HOUR FORECAST WAS 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
OBSERVATIONS AT 6Z...WITH THE NAM FORECASTS MARGINALLY BETTER.
THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS PROBABLY UNDERESTIMATED BY
THE MODELS AND WILL SIDE WITH THE FASTER TIMING FOR FROPA TONIGHT.
WE HAVE FROPA IN THE METROPLEX AT 6Z AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN
ZONES JUST AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S WITH NORTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE COLDEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE STILL IS SOME CONCERN THAT WE HAVE NOT GONE
COLD ENOUGH. WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA ON HOW COLD IT WILL GET
HERE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS/TRENDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE FRONTAL LAYER WILL BE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET DEEP OVER NORTH
TEXAS WITH A CLOUD DECK LIKELY DEVELOPING AT THE INVERSION ZONE.
COLD ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG...BUT WANE BY AFTERNOON AS
NORTH WINDS WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOUTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
COLD AIR WILL END...AND PRESSURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE COLD LAYER TO INTENSIFY WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING THE REGION. -RA/DZ IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF N TX MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOS/MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL EXIST NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO PARIS TUESDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A
MAJOR ICE EVENT...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
EXACT LOCATION OF THE 32F LINE IS UNCERTAIN...AND IF THE INITIAL
SURGE IS COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WE WILL NEED TO BRING
FZRA FARTHER SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NAM IS PREFERRED FOR TEMPS TUE-WED...AS OTHER MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE AN UNREALISTIC RAPID EROSION OF THE COLD AIR.
ECMWF/NAM FORECASTS SHOW A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE CELL PUSHING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE RED RIVER COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT STALLING/WAVERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A MESS WITH COLD AIR HANGING
AROUND IN THE PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
FOR IT TO GO ANYWHERE. GFS SHOWS STRONG FRONT NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS JUST YET. A USE OF ENSEMBLE GFS MOS FOR
TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE COURSE
OF ACTION AT THIS TIME.
NWS FTW TX
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008/
426 AM
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AND TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND 30S. WEAK RADAR RETURNS HAVE DEVELOPED
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDING IN LIFT.
VERY DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS HAS PREVENTED ANY
PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. MODELS FCST FRONTOGENESIS
BAND TO INTENSIFY FROM ACT-CRS-PRX BY MID MORNING. WILL MENTION A
LOW CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS FOR THIS AREA...BUT WITH TEMPS
FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AS THE CYCLONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
MINNESOTA PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF
ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD. ALREADY THERE IS EVIDENCE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING DEFLECTED EASTWARD AS TEMP GRADIENTS WEAKEN TO OUR NORTH.
THUS...COLD ADVECTION OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING FALLING TEMPS THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP...BUT THE EAST/SOUTH CWA SHOULD STAY CLOUDY
WITH STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
DENSE CLOUD COVER AND MINIMAL ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH SUNRISE. WARM ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ORGANIZING. MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER THE EAST. ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW UPGLIDE AT THE INVERSION
ZONE...WITH LITTLE OR NO QPF...AND WE BELIEVE THAT THIS SHALLOW
LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRIZZLE. THE MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIP
IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HEARNE TO GAINESVILLE WHERE A
BRIEF ICING EPISODE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MID MORNING TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED THE TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS BY STAYING
CLOSE TO THE NAM FOR TEMPS TUES-THURS. OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW
EROSION OF THE COLD AIR WAY TOO QUICKLY...AND THEREFORE ARE 10-20
DEGREES WARMER. WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EVENTUALLY...AS WILL A PROLONGED EPISODE OF ADVECTION FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE EXTENDED MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING SATURDAY...SO HAVE
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CaptinCrunch wrote:NWS FTW TX
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008/
426 AM
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AND TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND 30S. WEAK RADAR RETURNS HAVE DEVELOPED
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS AIDING IN LIFT.
VERY DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS HAS PREVENTED ANY
PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND SO FAR. MODELS FCST FRONTOGENESIS
BAND TO INTENSIFY FROM ACT-CRS-PRX BY MID MORNING. WILL MENTION A
LOW CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS FOR THIS AREA...BUT WITH TEMPS
FLIRTING WITH FREEZING IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AS THE CYCLONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
MINNESOTA PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF
ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD. ALREADY THERE IS EVIDENCE OF THE COLD AIR
BEING DEFLECTED EASTWARD AS TEMP GRADIENTS WEAKEN TO OUR NORTH.
THUS...COLD ADVECTION OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING FALLING TEMPS THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP...BUT THE EAST/SOUTH CWA SHOULD STAY CLOUDY
WITH STEADY TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S.
DENSE CLOUD COVER AND MINIMAL ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS THROUGH SUNRISE. WARM ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN ATOP THE COLD AIRMASS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ORGANIZING. MODELS ARE INDICATING LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER THE EAST. ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW UPGLIDE AT THE INVERSION
ZONE...WITH LITTLE OR NO QPF...AND WE BELIEVE THAT THIS SHALLOW
LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRIZZLE. THE MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIP
IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HEARNE TO GAINESVILLE WHERE A
BRIEF ICING EPISODE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MID MORNING TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED THE TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS BY STAYING
CLOSE TO THE NAM FOR TEMPS TUES-THURS. OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW
EROSION OF THE COLD AIR WAY TOO QUICKLY...AND THEREFORE ARE 10-20
DEGREES WARMER. WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
EVENTUALLY...AS WILL A PROLONGED EPISODE OF ADVECTION FOG TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THE EXTENDED MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING SATURDAY...SO HAVE
TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Forecast shows temps back into the lower 70's by friday, before next arctic front arrives on Saturday. current temp here is a warm 29 degrees, with a brisk north wind, dont think we'll see any measureable precip, maybe a sleet pelet or 2.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008
.UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF FANNIN TO NAVARRO COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM...THEN
RE-EVALUATE REISSUING A LARGE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR
TONIGHTS EVENT.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BY
EXTENDING THE FREEZING PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO LOWER TONIGHT`S
MIN TEMPS ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES AFTER SEEING THIS MORNING FWC AND
MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS. SOME TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY HAS ONLY MINOR CHANGES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS WE GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WED-FRI AND ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
239 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THOSE PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF A BOWIE...WEATHERFORD...
CLIFTON...KILLEEN LINE...
.SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN SETTLED OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...
RESULTING IN PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME
SLEET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
TXZ091>093-102>104-117>120-131>134-144-145-147-148-157>162-174-
175-160400-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.081215T2200Z-081216T1700Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-BOSQUE-HILL-FREESTONE-
ANDERSON-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-
ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...
FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...
COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...
WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...
JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...
CALVERT
239 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 AM CST TUESDAY.
AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DEEPENS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FALLING TONIGHT...
PATCHY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO LIGHT SLEET. ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL ACCUMULATE FIRST ON
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THESE WILL BECOME SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS. BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION...AS TRAVEL
DELAYS MAY OCCUR.
IT IS A VERY TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS COLD ARCTIC
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND WARM MOIST AIR MOVES UP AND
OVER IT. WE/VE ISSUED ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT COVERS
THE EASTERN 2/3S THROUGH 1100 AM TUESDAY. THE 295-300 ISENTROPIC
SURFACES HAVE FAIR LIFT INDICATED OVER THE EASTERN 2/3S FOR
TONIGHT AND A PLUME OF GOOD LIFT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX
SOUTHEAST BACK INTO NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS ABOVE THE COLD SURFACE AIR
TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS WE/RE LOOKING FOR CONSIDERABLE FOG...LOW CLOUDS
AND DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER MAJOR
WINTER STORM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOME RAIN EAST OF
I-35. COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY BY SATURDAY...THIS WINTER SYSTEM SWINGS ANOTHER
MASS OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS WHICH LINGERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
WE/VE DECIDED TO USE THE NAM MODEL FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPS FOR
THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. WE WILL HEDGED CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT
GFS MOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES DOWN INTO
THE REGION.
SIDE NOTE - CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS (GFS...ECMWF...
CANADIAN AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES) REMAINS LOW BEYOND (DAY 4) AS
CHANGES CONTINUE TO OCCUR DAILY. CURRENTLY...THE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN FAVORS A DEEP HUDSON BAY VORTEX AS THE SEPARATE SIBERIAN
VORTEX DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE NORTH POLE BY DAY 10. NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES FAVOR THE WESTERN U.S COAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CANADA
AND INTO THE DAVIS STRAIT WHILE POSITIVE ANOMALIES FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN STATES INCLUDING TEXAS.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2008
...FREEZING FOG AND DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...
.WARM AIR IS MOVING UP AND OVER THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHILE
SOME AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. FOG SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND SHOULD BECOME DENSE SOUTH
OF A HAMILTON TO HILLSBORO...ATHENS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN AND MARLIN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND INTO AREAS
NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO MINERAL WELLS...DALLAS AND BONHAM LINE.
AREAS SOUTH OF CLEBURNE AND WAXAHACHIE SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING
AROUND MIDNIGHT THUS ENDING THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING FOG OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ELSEWHERE
IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
TXZ091>094-100>104-116>119-133-134-170545-
/O.NEW.KFWD.ZF.Y.0001.081216T2134Z-081217T1300Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...
WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS
334 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2008
...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE NIGHT AS AREAS
OF FOG FORM. THIS WILL RESULT IN ICE BEING DEPOSITED ON EXPOSED AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN BECOME VERY ICY
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
ntxweatherwatcher wrote:So is freezing fog as bad as this nasty drizzle or worse?
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