Mid Atlantic Winter Storms 2009-2010 updated

[Stephanie]

Nope, just the before and after pictures above.

[attallaman]

Nope, just the before and after pictures above.

So is the snow still there or has it all melted by now? Picture postcard pics, nice snow scenes, something I see very little of down here in my neck of the woods here in the deep south. Enjoy your Christmas you hear.

[Stephanie]

Some has melted but we still have a ton more. I have a mountain in front of my house where the snow plows piled up some of the snow from my court.

We received our average annual snowfall from this storm and it was just days before winter officially started. From what the experts are predicting for this year due to El Nino and the jet stream, we may be seeing several more sizable storms this year.

I'm glad that you enjoyed the pictures. It looks like the Midwest and the Rockies are getting walloped by a big storm. There's lots of members that will be sharing their photos in those threads as well.

[Stephanie]

Now you see it, now you don't.

I only have a few snow-plow made mountains of snow left from our "Blizzard" last week. We would've been in deep do-do if that 1 inch plus rain we received yesterday was snow.

[lester]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
217 PM EST WED DEC 30 2009

MDZ003>007-009>011-501-502-VAZ027-028-030-031-040>042-051>053-
WVZ050>053-055-501>504-310330-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0031.091231T0900Z-091231T1800Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-
CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...
MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...
BAYARD...PETERSBURG...EMORYVILLE...HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY
217 PM EST WED DEC 30 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY.

* PRECIP TYPE...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AROUND 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS. SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
MPH ALONG THE RIDGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[lester]

A general 1-3" across the m/a..a decent storm here

[Stephanie]

We had a coating and it started just in time for rush hour. Many accidents and icy patches. The Atlantic City Expressway had brine put on it last night so it helped, but the slushy mixture was still dangerous. It was definitely a white-knuckle, 50 mile trip to work. I needed a drink!

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Happy New Year to all. Here is the most recent from the National Weather Service, Reagan National Airport:

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY.

REPEATED SURGES OF ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG WINDS THROUGH
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TRANSPORTED TO THE
SURFACE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
PRESENT. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Currently it's 25 degrees F, few clouds, but breezy, and feels like 10 degrees Fahrenheit.

How you doing up there in NJ Stephanie?

WLD.

[Stephanie]

It's friggin' cold up here in NJ, WLD!

Actually, if it wasn't for the wind, it wouldn't feel so uncomfortable. The day time temperatures are supposed to be in the low to mid 30's, except for today:

Point Forecast: 3 Miles ENE Glassboro NJ
39.7°N 75.09°W Mobile Weather Information | En Español
Last Update: 7:59 am EST Jan 3, 2010
Forecast Valid: 10am EST Jan 3, 2010-6pm EST Jan 9, 2010

Today: Scattered flurries after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Windy, with a west wind between 26 and 31 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Breezy, with a west wind between 14 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.

Monday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind between 9 and 11 mph.

Tuesday: A chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind between 11 and 14 mph.

Tuesday Night: A chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Wednesday: A chance of flurries. Partly cloudy, with a high near 37.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 31.

I see we have another chance of snow in the forecast!

[Stephanie]

Winter Weather Advisory up for tonight until noon tomorrow:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
413 PM EST THU JAN 7 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ067>071-082115-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
413 PM EST THU JAN 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES BUT COULD CAUSE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

$$


Can someone explain to me why the snow always has to start BEFORE rush hour???

[Stephanie]

Just received an inch of snow as predicted. The main roads were all treated with a brine solution so the majority of the roads were wet. Was very pretty.

[Stephanie]

We're breaking into a nice THAW. It was up near 50 today and the same for tomorrow. The rest of the weekend and next week will see temps in the low 40's as well.

[Stephanie]

That California storm is going to throw something our way Thursday night through Friday:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND WEAKEN OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

AS FAR AS OUR THU NGT/FRIDAY SYSTEM GOES, ITS JUST COMING ONSHORE
ATTM IN SOUTHERN CA. THE GFS VERIFIED THE BEST WITH ITS 6HR FCST
VS THE WRF-NMM AND ECMWF. THE TROF WAS ANALYZED WELL, THERE IS
SLIGHTLY MORE RIDGING THAN PROGGED BY ANY OF THE MODELS TO THE
EAST, WITH THE GFS CAPTURING IT THE BEST. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS COMING ONSHORE, THE NEXT TWO SOUNDING MODEL RUNS
SHOULD HOPEFULLY BRING A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES IN OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30
IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN COULD BEGIN
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE SECONDARY
LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA AND
WILL BECOME HEAVIER. AS IT DOES SO, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL. THIS,
IN TURN, WILL BRING A CONGLOMERATION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO OUR
AREA. MAINLY SNOW NORTH AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND
SNOW ELSEWHERE, WITH PRIMARILY RAIN ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM,
BUT IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADVISORY OR, POSSIBLY,
WARNING CONDITIONS TO, AT LEAST, A PORTION OF OUR AREA. IF THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR THESE
WINTRY CONDITIONS, WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY
BE RAISED.

[lester]

looks like snow's in the forecast for most of the mid-atlantic friday into saturday

[Stephanie]

They're still calling for "snow showers" around here on Saturday. There is definitely a buzz about this storm's potential though. It all depends upon the track.

[Stephanie]

Looks a little more promising for snow:

000
FXUS61 KPHI 271658
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1158 AM EST WED JAN 27 2010

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --WE LOVE IT WHEN A PLAN COMES TOGETHER AND RIGHT NOW IT IS NOT.
FIRST THE GFS INITIALIZATION OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY LAST NIGHT AND OVER MAINE AT 00Z WAS 30 METERS HIGHER
THAN ITS 24 HOUR FORECAST. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS IS THAT THE
MODEL BIAS OF HANGING ON TO LOW HEIGHTS OR POLAR VORTICES TOO LONG
IN THAT PART OF NOAM IS STILL OCCURRING.

THIS BRINGS US TO THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WHICH
SUPPRESSION IS CAUSED BY THE NEXT POLAR VORTEX LINGERING IN THAT
SAME GEOGRAPHICAL AREA. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT ALWAYS AN
INDICATION OF FUTURE TRENDS, BUT THE WAY THIS WINTER HAS VERIFIED
OUR THOUGHT PROCESS IS TO EXPECT A WEAKER MODEL SOLUTION TO VERIFY
THERE. IF THIS IS TRUE, THE GULF COAST LOW WOULD BE ABLE TO TURN
THE CORNER A LITTLE SHARPER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS ALSO
DEPENDS ON IT SLOWING DOWN AND CREATING A BIT MORE OF A SEPARATION
BETWEEN IT AND THE POLAR VORTEX. THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THAT AND
THE ECMWF TENDENCY IS TO HOLD CLOSED LOWS BACK TOO FAR IN THE SWRN
CONUS. SO THE FASTER GFS TIMING SOLUTION MAY VERIFY CLOSER.

LASTLY AT ABOUT 72 HOURS LAST WINTER, THE AVERAGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACK ERROR WAS ABOUT 175 MILES, NEARLY THE DISTANCE FROM
CAPE MAY TO HIGH POINT NEW JERSEY. OF COURSE THE ERROR MAY NOT BE
NORTH/SOUTH, IT COULD ALSO BE EAST/WEST. THE MOST ACCURATE MODEL
AT THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD LAST WINTER WAS THE ECMWF AND WE
APPLIED A 175 MILE WHAT IF CORRECTION TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

WE HAVE SEEN ALL THE MODELS SLIDE NORTHWARD WITH THE 00Z RUN, THE
CAN GGEM ESPECIALLY. IT WAS TOO FAR NORTH WITH LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM
AND HAD THE MOST DRAMATIC GEOGRAPHICAL SHIFT FROM ITS 12Z RUN SO
IT WAS NOT USED. BUT EVEN USING THE ECMWF AND UKMET AT THIS
FORECAST TIME PERIOD, THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT SNOW CAN GET
NORTH THROUGHOUT OUR CWA. OBVIOUSLY THE SNOW WILL BE BATTLING A
VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS, SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LOW THE DEW
POINTS GO ON FRIDAY.

WE HOPE THAT THE DIURNAL NIGHT RUN NORTH/DAY RUN SUPPRESSED MODEL
HISTORY COMES TO A BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS ALL
OF THE METEOROLOGICAL PLAYERS WILL GET INTO DEEPER RAOB COVERAGE.

POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE TRACK ERROR,
THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION POSITION OF THE H2.5 JET AND THE
MODEL HISTORY OF HANGING ONTO TO THOSE POLAR VORTICES TOO LONG.
LIKELY POPS WERE CONFINED TO WHERE ALL MODELS FORECAST QPF IN OUR
CWA. LASTLY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL.

STAY TUNED.

&&

[xironman]

Doesn't look too good this morning, still could change but once the SREF gets this close it starts to get tougher.

[srainhoutx]

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
249 PM EST THU JAN 28 2010

VALID 00Z FRI JAN 29 2010 - 12Z SAT JAN 30 2010


...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES...

A DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SPREADING
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS SOUTH...AND SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN TO ITS NORTH. EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM WILL REFORM
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND SOUTHEAST. A SPRAWLING...INTENSE CYCLONE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL FEED COLD...DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...SHARPLY LIMITING
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW. OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THE LAST TO CLEAR
OUT. ALONG THE WEST COAST...EXPECT A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SIERRA NEVADA DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


CISCO

[Stephanie]

They're forecasting a possibility of snow in extreme Southern New Jersey and Delaware for Saturday. Looks like the VA/NC area of the East Coast will be the big winners for this storm.

Reading donsutherland1's discussion in the Artic Cold thread, it seems like I won't have to wait too long for another major snow event.

[lester]

WWAs and WSWs from maryland to north carolina

Gonna be a heck of a storm.