Texas Winter 2010-2011

[SouthernMet]

The 12Z GFS has Wintry Precip for North Texas, the end of the first week of December.
Still far out for certain though, anything can happen.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Here we go again, thats a massive storm if it pans out of course. Austin, Dallas and Houston would be slammed

[Ntxw]

Here we go again, thats a massive storm if it pans out of course. Austin, Dallas and Houston would be slammed

I don't really buy into that yet. The cold I can see with the pattern, and perhaps the Texas panhandle along with Oklahoma getting wintry precip (this is how it usually ends up verifying to be when you're talking this far out, long range GFS has advertised several snowstorms this season and none have actually verified for Ntx/Okla beyond 100 hrs). I will say this, the GFS has done a decent job with pattern recognition. It certainly did a better job than the EC with the latest cold shot.

[srainhoutx]

I posted this on the 'local forum', but it certainly fits here as well...

Another thing that is 'working in our favor' is the blocking pattern across the N Atlantic (Greenland Block). The -NAO continues to be a plus as well and the models keep extending that regime as time has gone on while 'trying' to weaken it. A +PNA would be ideal, but is generally not a La Nina pattern, so more 'help' from the Atlantic would be needed as the Pacific will more than likely not be a friend to those looking for a favorable pattern to bring wintry weather into TX. We will see and the Euro persistence does raise an eyebrow.

12Z Euro Ensemble 850mb Temp Anomalies 240 hours...

[Ntxw]

One of the rare, in depth explanations from FW AFD this afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE THRU
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS IT PUSHES EAST THRU THE
REGION IT WILL SEND MORE OF A TRUE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THRU NORTH
TX. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MODELS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
SATURATE THE MID TO UPPER LVLS OF THE TROPOSPHERE FROM 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SATURATION SEEMS TO BE
DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AROUND THE H600 LEVEL. A CROSS
SECTION THRU NORTH TX ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO
SHOW THIS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OCCURS WITHIN A NARROW
SLOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS LOCATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER THE GOMEX AND SLOPES UP THRU THE H700 TO H550 LAYER OVER
NORTH TX FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. ABOVE THIS AXIS OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 100 TO 150 MB
THICK LAYER HAVING LOW STATIC STABILITY. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT
THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL BRING 150 MB OR SO OF STRONG LIFT OVER NORTH TX AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THIS LIFT OCCURRING
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD EXPECT THAT THIS LAYER WILL BE
AN EFFICIENT PRODUCER OF ICE CRYSTALS FOR A FEW HRS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE SUB H700 LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
TO LOOK DRY AND DOMINATED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE.
WITH THIS IN MIND WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THE
MID LVL CLOUD DECK TO EVAPORATE/SUBLIMATE BEFORE REACHING THE SFC
MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS NOT AS DRY AS
FORECAST IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OF FLURRIES TO
REACH THE SFC MONDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME
ALL SIGNIFICANT UPPER LVL ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEREFORE HAVE THE FRONT COMING THRU DRY AT THIS
TIME. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /BEGINNING DEC 7TH/ OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE
ECMWF ADVERTISES A POWERFUL CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. AT
THIS TIME THERE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SUPPORT
FROM THE NAEFS FOR THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION OVER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AS NEXT WEEK
APPROACHES AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION DOES FORECAST A MAJOR WINTER
WEATHER EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF TX FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME THIS SOLUTION REPRESENTS AN OUTLIER THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO
VERIFY...HOWEVER IT REMAINS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS.

Keep in mind the GFS has been the one flip/flopping recently. So calling the Euro a crazy outlier wouldn't be so wise imho. The EC has shown a storm for some time now given the strength and location has been iffy. Snow cover is going to increase the coming week, I'd keep an eye on that time frame.

[Portastorm]

I have learned over many years to not bet against the Euro. It's not perfect but it doesn't pull the Lucy-Yanking-The-Football trick nearly as often as the GFS.

[HockeyTx82]

Last Christmas one of the models predicted snow on Christmas a week or so out (I think I found the posts around Dec 9th or so), if I remember correctly, and it verified. Which one was that? Just curious if there are any similarities with the current model runs..............

[Ntxw]

Last Christmas one of the models predicted snow on Christmas a week or so out (I think I found the posts around Dec 9th or so), if I remember correctly, and it verified. Which one was that? Just curious if there are any similarities with the current model runs..............

If I remember correctly, it was the GFS. Many of us were trying to compare the new parallel (updated) version vs. the old one and saw the storm for a lot of Texas. Of course it turned out to be an all out blizzard north of I-20. GFS lost it a few times but ultimately had it back a few days later. It was the middle of Dec. when the Euro and ensembles came together in line with the GFS.

[HockeyTx82]

Last Christmas one of the models predicted snow on Christmas a week or so out (I think I found the posts around Dec 9th or so), if I remember correctly, and it verified. Which one was that? Just curious if there are any similarities with the current model runs..............

If I remember correctly, it was the GFS. Many of us were trying to compare the new parallel (updated) version vs. the old on and saw the storm for a lot of Texas. Of course it turned out to be an all out blizzard north of I-20. It was the middle of Dec. when the Euro and ensembles came together in line with the GFS.

So this current storm people are starting to talk about, any reason to get excited so far out? I realize it could always change but I don't recall the NWS even talking about the Christmas Eve or storms thereafter till they started or right up to the last minute. So why would they mention a model run so far out in a writeup today?

[Ntxw]

So this current storm people are starting to talk about, any reason to get excited so far out? I realize it could always change but I don't recall the NWS even talking about the Christmas Eve or storms thereafter till they started. So why would they mention a model run so far out in a writeup today?

It would be fatal to pick out a storm this soon. The key to predicting what could happen (as many pro mets have mentioned) is to look at the pattern set up and compare it to analog years, setups prior to see if it can work. Pick a model that has been consistent (over the years the Euro has been king at pointing out patterns). What many of us are saying really is that cold will come down around that time frame. The blocking over Greenland will provide some aid in doing so (a +PNA is what we need alongside for the best chances). Now for the storm, we'll just have to wait and see how the models 'trend' in the coming days to know for sure.

As for the NWS, I'm not sure exactly why. It's been awhile since our region has seen enough set ups for wintry weather until last year which may have given the forecasters at the NWS more confidence/experience in pointing out things that might happen.

[HockeyTx82]

It would be fatal to pick out a storm this soon. The key to predicting what could happen (as many pro mets have mentioned) is to look at the pattern set up and compare it to analog years, setups prior to see if it can work. Pick a model that has been consistent (over the years the Euro has been king at pointing out patterns). What many of us are saying really is that cold will come down around that time frame. The blocking over Greenland will provide some aid in doing so (a +PNA is what we need alongside for the best chances). Now for the storm, we'll just have to wait and see how the models 'trend' in the coming days to know for sure.

As for the NWS, I'm not sure exactly why. It's been awhile since our region has seen enough set ups for wintry weather until last year which may have given the forecasters at the NWS more confidence/experience in pointing out things that might happen.

Ntwx, thanks for the response. I wanted to say, incase any NWS mets are reading this, that I was not calling out the NWS just saying I found it of interest that this far out they would mention that run. Winter weather in Texas is hard to forecast and I have learned that over the last two years I have been following this board. But like you said last winter gave all of us a real treat and good data to use on future storms. I guess all we can do now is wait and see.

[gboudx]

One of the rare, in depth explanations from FW AFD this afternoon.

Cavanaugh writes great AFD's. Very detailed and informative.

[frigidice77]

Lol this topic got active over the last couple of hours. How far deep into texas does the snow make it with the storm that the euro shows

[somethingfunny]

Lol this topic got active over the last couple of hours. How far deep into texas does the snow make it with the storm that the euro shows

It depends which run of the Euro you're looking at.

[HockeyTx82]

Lol this topic got active over the last couple of hours. How far deep into texas does the snow make it with the storm that the euro shows

It depends which run of the Euro you're looking at.

Yup, Steve McCauley on Ch. 8 here in Dallas just showed the graphic. He showed the High parked over us with winds blowing overland, but then went to show the High tapping into Gulf Moisture. He always does this, shows this stuff. It gets people talking and watching. Anyone know his name here on the board? lol............

[CaptinCrunch]

Last Christmas one of the models predicted snow on Christmas a week or so out (I think I found the posts around Dec 9th or so), if I remember correctly, and it verified. Which one was that? Just curious if there are any similarities with the current model runs..............

If I remember correctly, it was the GFS. Many of us were trying to compare the new parallel (updated) version vs. the old one and saw the storm for a lot of Texas. Of course it turned out to be an all out blizzard north of I-20. GFS lost it a few times but ultimately had it back a few days later. It was the middle of Dec. when the Euro and ensembles came together in line with the GFS.

It was the GFS, and I had talked about the that system a good 2 weeks out. As for the coming possibility of winter precip for NTX after the 7th of Dec? Yes there are good signs that the EURO is on to something.

[HockeyTx82]

From the NWS in Ft. Worth this moring.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST MON NOV 29 2010/
BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING SATURATED WITH DRIZZLE AND LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OR
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OF I-35 BY MID MORNING AS WINDS VEER
TO THE SW AT 850 MB AND QUALITY MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND IT...WHILE THE TRUE COLD
FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES...DYNAMIC FORCING WILL LIFT THE CAP ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES WHERE CAPE OF UP TO 500 J/KG BECOMES AVAILABLE BY
LATE MORNING. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA WHERE STORMS WILL
HAVE MORE TIME/INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS WEST OF I-35. COMBINATION
OF FREEZE-DRIED VEGETATION...WEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND RH BELOW
20 PERCENT NECESSITATES A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN CWA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY EVIDENT WITHIN THE 400-600MB
LAYER. WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SATURATION
AND EXPECT FORCING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR FORMATION OF SNOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD RENDER MUCH OF
THIS PRECIPITATION INTO VIRGA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THE SE ZONES BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALSO SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER...SO WILL MENTION SPRINKLES SE OF A LAMPASAS TO
CANTON LINE. RADARS SHOULD BE LIT UP WITH THIS ACTIVITY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT ALL ECHOES/CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
VACATE THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE SUN...BREEZY NW WINDS AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE CHILLY SIDE. RH WILL BE LOW
AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER FREEZE AT MOST LOCATIONS. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...SO
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE
A BLOCK FROM GREENLAND SOUTHWARD WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHS LOCATED
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN. STATIONARY
LOW PRESSURES AT EACH EDGE OF THE CONTINENT WILL FOSTER THE GROWTH
OF A LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CELL ACROSS CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW TO TAP INTO SOME
CANADIAN AIR AND GRADUALLY BRING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS. THUS IT IS
WITH REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A
PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON
THE DETAILS...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL COOLING INTO THE NEXT WEEK...AND THE GFS IS
DELAYING THE COOL DOWN UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND. THE CANADIAN/UKMET
AND MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THUS HAVE KEPT HIGHS WARM SATURDAY...BUT DID
START TO TREND THINGS COOLER SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SO ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE THE ECMWF ALSO REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH THE STRENGTH OF
A MON-TUE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...BUT IT DID TREND TOWARD THE WEAKER
AND LESS AMPLIFIED FORECASTS OF THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH THE COLUMN COOLING IT IS
POSSIBLE IT MAY BE OF FROZEN VARIETY ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE
UPPER PATTERN DOES FIT INTO A CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL FOR SNOW...BUT
ONE THAT ONLY PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SNOWS NORTH OF I-20 WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES USUALLY TOO WARM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. STILL A
LONG WAY OUT AND EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE TO WAFFLE...SO
CONFIDENCE IN WINTER PRECIPITATION REMAINS VERY LOW.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF winter snow storm next week in Texas!

Looks like an El Nino pattern, not a La Nina!

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF winter snow storm next week in Texas!

Looks like an El Nino pattern, not a La Nina!

About time you showed up.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, where ya been, txagwxman? Good to see you back!

Now what about next week?!