2011/2012 Denver Winter Weather: Maybe this year!

[denversnowlover]

alright will do

[SCMedic]

3" so far here in Broomfield and 28 degrees. Not as cold or windy as I expected at this hour. Still snowing ok.

[PTPatrick]

had about 3 at home when for work this am...still coming down pretty good. If it keeps up like this til noon see no trouble getting 6 inches in most of the central denver area...we shall see.

[Dencolo]

Some snow totals below. Overall, slightly on the high side of the 3"-7" expected. I got 3" on the driveway, 5" on the grass and 7" on patio furniture on the SW side of town. Looks like another few inches on the way Sat night....

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
825 PM MST THU DEC 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 PM SNOW 3 SE DENVER 39.69N 104.93W
12/01/2011 M4.8 INCHES DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 PM SNOW 1 NNW LOUISVILLE 39.98N 105.15W
12/01/2011 M8.1 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0705 PM SNOW 2 SSE FEDERAL HEIGHTS 39.84N 105.00W
12/01/2011 M5.0 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0655 PM SNOW 1 SW EVERGREEN 39.62N 105.36W
12/01/2011 M8.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0653 PM SNOW 15 N ELIZABETH 39.58N 104.60W
12/01/2011 M7.0 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0646 PM SNOW 3 WSW CONIFER 39.50N 105.35W
12/01/2011 M10.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 PM SNOW 10 N ELIZABETH 39.50N 104.60W
12/01/2011 M4.0 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 PM SNOW 3 ESE TINY TOWN 39.58N 105.16W
12/01/2011 M7.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 PM SNOW 1 WNW ELDORADO SPRINGS 39.93N 105.28W
12/01/2011 M12.3 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM SNOW 1 W FIRESTONE 40.12N 104.95W
12/01/2011 M7.0 INCH WELD CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0510 PM SNOW 1 NW NIWOT 40.10N 105.17W
12/01/2011 M5.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0411 PM SNOW ADAMS 39.92N 104.9W
12/01/2001 M5.1 INCH 2 NE THORNTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

[PTPatrick]

Yeah the combo of wind and funky ground temps played havoc. I had 6 inches I grass, 5 inch on the garden bed wall.

Looks like around 3 inches tomorrow night/Saturday and now Sunday night/Monday another wave of cold air like today comes with more upslope. Both gfs and nam advertising another 2-5 in storm then...craziness but I love it.

[VoodooCadillac]

3" in Fort Collins Wednesday night/Thursday morning. 22" total to date for year. Already snowing tonight (Friday) @ 9:00 PM.

[SCMedic]

3-4" as of 8am. Still coming down pretty good. I'm pretty bullish on the Sunday storm. 3-5" possible.

[Dencolo]

Lately even though the storms have met expectations, it seams I usually wake up to less snow than expected. Not with this little storm. Last storm they downgraded from a WSW to a WWA. This storm went from nothing to a WWA.

Hard to measure because there was still snow on the ground from the last storm and it is quite windy with larger drifts.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
415 AM MST SAT DEC 3 2011

COZ039-040-031800-
/O.EXA.KBOU.WW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-111203T1800Z/
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARVADA...BOULDER...GOLDEN...LAKEWOOD...
LONGMONT...AURORA...BRIGHTON...CITY OF DENVER...
DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...HIGHLANDS RANCH...LITTLETON...
PARKER
415 AM MST SAT DEC 3 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS
MORNING. THE WIND WILL BE STRONGEST EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.

[SCMedic]

7.5" here at my house with the last burst. Snow slowing.

This storm- 7.5"
Thursday Storm - 8"
Two october storms- 18" total on the low end.


I still say we could see 5" from the Sunday storm.

[PTPatrick]

I don't think they expected these bursts of heavy snow. In fact, through all of Thursday's system there was never anything really "heavy"...woke this morning and it was nuking. I had about 5.5 from last storm and now another 5 or 6 , and still coming down. Agree tomorrow night is looking good. 12z Nam still has a 3-6 inch while 12 gfs looks more Like 2-4. Snow ratios tomorrow night will be even better. 3, 6 inch storms within a week and cold temps is good week for me

[PTPatrick]

Whew...left aboutb1000 this am and roads were just trash but things have thawed nicely this afternoon.

Should be some more road thawing tomorrow before lunch with clouds increasing as the day goes and more cold. PM discussion says this storm will be about .1 inch drier but with 30:1 ratios They are saying 2-4 but I could see it ending up more like last nights with some 5-8 inch totals. NAM as usual wetter than gfs with around .3 inches for the entire metro...while gfs is around .2 for the metro. At 30:1 even gfs would mean 6 inches...wetter nam could mean 8+. With single digit lows and most if the snow falling overnight, Monday commute should be a hoot!

[VoodooCadillac]

A light and fluffy 4" + in Fort Collins - bringing our tally to 26" for the year to date. Should tack a few more inches on to that total tomorrow.

[Dencolo]

Went to Summit County today. Most of the sidewalks were completely void of snow, along with most of the grass in both Silverthorne and Frisco. Denver looked like a winter wonderland compared to the mountains!

Looks like AFD mentioned 30:1 snow ratios, so Sunday night should be interesting. Hard to remember the last time we had so many back to back storms.

[Dencolo]

My point forecast I just looked at kind of surprised me...

Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -12. North northwest wind between 7 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Monday: Snow, mainly before 9am. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as -7. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[PTPatrick]

I noticed that. Central denver point forecast 3-5... Pueblos disc update tonight really seemed like they bugged out at the 0z nam...and indeed, I suspect nam totals even up here would boarder warning criteria as opposed to wwa. I think theyll hoist a wwa tomorrow, and as long as models don't change prolly leave it. Denver wfo updated the disc tonight and mentioned higher totals, and started hinting at who would get advisories.

[SCMedic]

Nice to see the local office come around to the idea I've been sqwaking about for a few days and that's the underperforming models. I was bullish for 4-7" tonight and they've finally. Come around to the same idea. Good week for snow!

[PTPatrick]

Will be interesting to see what afternoon discussion says. 12z runs of both nam and gfs are much dryer north of palmer divide. Nam swung from .25-.5 for the metro area to now around Barely .1 inch. Gfs swung less...and still around .1-.2. It's concerning that nam swung back so much but it could be a fluke and next run will go back. Either way .15 inches of moisture could still create a few inches for Denver, but it likely wouldn't make as much as 7 as currently advertised. Models haven't really done well with these past few systems, like SC said, so they may just nowcast from here out.

[denversnowlover]

so ideas on tonights storm??
hope we are pleasantly surprised

[Dencolo]

Based on radar, looks like it's just about to start here. GFS is giving us very little to work with. Point forecast is saying 4-8", but I am not quite as bullish on this storm as the others. Hope I'm wrong, but we'll see.

[PTPatrick]

Been snowing lightly about an hour. It's very fine snow, so I expect they were right about the high ratio of snow to liquid...but liquid doesn't appear to be much. I'm with you Den..not looking as good I'll be happy to wake up to 3inches.