SW LA/SE TX Winter 2013-2014

[PTrackerLA]

Best Christmas weather in recent memory here! Christmas Eve morning and Christmas morning both had lows of 29 degrees with highs barely making it above 50 with mostly sunny skies. We have already had 9 freezing nights since Thanksgiving which means we have already more than doubled our total freezes last season (4). One thing I have noticed is we have been undercutting the forecast low temperatures several times this season as not one forecast had us reaching the 20s for Christmas. Looks like the cool/cold will continue through the new year and I wouldn't be surprised to see some true hard freezes in January.

[vbhoutex]

HIgh temp so far today, if you discount it was 46f at midnight is the 42.3f it is right now. Totally overcast with TONS OF VIRGA showing up on radar. Nothing making it to the ground. If the models are to be believed this could be the start of a colder trend for our Winter here in SE TX. I've seen the "step down" before. I will be watching closely to see what happens.

[LaBreeze]

Local met mentioned tonight that there is lots of arctic air pooling in Canada over the next week, and with an active/energetic polar jet stream, there is the possibility of a real-deal local arctic blast for Acadiana in about 10 days time...and while there is very little skill in forecasting beyond 8 days, the long range GFS model delivers arctic air in the 8-9 day period (Jan 11-13th) and perhaps some wintry precipitation to follow. Something to watch, but not to get overly excited about just yet.

[Jagno]

Wow, I just checked the local weather and we have wind advisories (20-30mph winds), flood warnings and freeze advisories for tomorrow as well as a hard freeze advisory for the Sunday night/Monday timeframe. Looks like a real winter for a change. Stay warm!

[LaBreeze]

Wow, I just checked the local weather and we have wind advisories (20-30mph winds), flood warnings and freeze advisories for tomorrow as well as a hard freeze advisory for the Sunday night/Monday timeframe. Looks like a real winter for a change. Stay warm!

Yep, but no precip of any kind after tonight.

[vbhoutex]

Wow, I just checked the local weather and we have wind advisories (20-30mph winds), flood warnings and freeze advisories for tomorrow as well as a hard freeze advisory for the Sunday night/Monday timeframe. Looks like a real winter for a change. Stay warm!

Yep, but no precip of any kind after tonight.

No hard freeze advisory here, but have a wind advisory. Expected low in the morning is 29f. Currently 36f and still falling with winds gusting to 30mph and a wind chill of 26f.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner's email from this morning:

Strong cold front has progressed across the area this morning leaving cold and gusty north winds in its wake.

Temperatures have continued to fall this morning under strong cold air advection regime in progress with current readings in the low to mid 30’s up north and near 40 along the coast with N winds of 15-25mph and gusts to 40mph. In the past hour Galveston has gusted to 40mph. Low temperatures combined with the strong winds have driven wind chill values into the low 20’s over our northern counties. A wind advisory is in effect for the central and southern parts of the area today, but think this will be marginal with only a few gust to near 40mph mainly before noon. High level cirrus clouds continue to spill NNE across the area, but should gradually push southward leaving mainly clear skies by late afternoon. Not sure temperatures will warm much…and think the mid to upper 40’s this afternoon will be all we can manage under continued cold air advection and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Quick hitting polar high will be situated over N TX tonight leading to a very cold night across the region. Dewpoints falling into the 10’s and 20’s by late this afternoon with clear skies and expected light winds will result in a widespread freeze across the area tonight. Lows will likely range from the mid 20’s up north to upper 20’s along US 59 to near freezing along the coast. Could see a few locations very near hard freeze criteria tonight especially in those usually cold locations (Conroe).

Polar high moves quickly eastward Friday with southerly wind returning. Clouds expand northward on Saturday and possibly enough moisture return for a few showers with temperatures warming back into the 60’s in a similar day to New Year’s Day.

Big question is how strong will be next front be on Sunday. Pretty good pool of very cold air currently over NW Canada and this appears poised to head SE into the US this weekend. Appears TX will be on the SW edge of this bitter cold air mass, but close enough to possibly produce some of the coldest weather since early 2011. Arctic boundary should pass across the region Sunday morning with temperatures quickly falling during the day on Sunday. GFS model is forecasting some “really” low dewpoints into the 10’s and 1’s across the region by next Monday and with mainly clear skies and a 1038mb arctic high centered over OK by Monday evening it could get fairly cold by Tuesday morning. Current GFS model guidance shows IAH falling to 25 Tuesday morning suggesting hard freeze criteria will be possible for a large part of the region NW of US 59 with lows possibly in the 10’s over our northern counties (GFS currently showing a 21 for College Station). Will have to keep a close eye on just how much of this cold air moves southward and potentially how cold it could get across the area early next week.

Climate:

2013 ended just as the previous four years with below average rainfall across much of the area. BUSH IAH ended the year with 38.84 inches of rainfall or 10.93 inches below normal. Hobby Airport ended 11.59 inches below normal and Galveston 11.52 inches below normal. College Station faired the best with a rainfall departure of only .71 of an inch below normal. I took a look back at the climate for the past 10 years at BUSH IAH and some impressive rainfall statistics emerged.

The normal annual rainfall for BUSH IAH is 49.77 inches:
Recorded rainfall by year:

2003: 45.76

2004: 65.06

2005: 41.21

2006: 57.86

2007: 65.52

2008: 53.00

2009: 47.01

2010: 42.72

2011: 24.57

2013: 42.32

2013: 38.84



The 5-yr total from 2003 to 2008 was 328.85 inches or 79.56 inches above normal for that 5-yr period

The 5-yr total from 2009 to 2013 was 195.46 inches or 53.39 inches below normal

Note that 2013 is the second driest year in the past 10 years only behind the severe drought year of 2011.

To put this into some perspective there is a 132.95 inch rainfall difference between the first 5-yr block and the second 5-yr block. The last 5 years have been very dry across the region and this dry pattern started after the landfall of Hurricane Ike in September 2008. However if you average out the rainfall over the past 10 years BUSH IAH is running a 26.17 inch rainfall surplus and this is due to the “very wet” years from 2003 to 2008 especially 2004 and 2007. A longer term trend in the climate signal would show a rainfall surplus for the area even though the last five years have been dry. It is also interesting to note that the rainfall deficit from 2009 to 2013 of 53.59 inches is over an entire year’s worth of rainfall missing (49.77 inches) where the period from 2003 to 2008 has a surplus of 79.56 inches or well over a year’s worth of rainfall on the positive side…so both astounding statistics effectively cancel each other out in the 10 year averaging of the rainfall.

On the temperature side of things 2013 ended slightly below normal (-.3 of a degree) and this coming off of the hottest year ever recorded for Houston in 2012 and previous very warm years in 2011 and 2010. Much of this cooling was in December which averaged almost 2-4 degrees below normal across the region…so yes it has been cold so far this winter.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner's email from this am:

Widespread freeze ongoing this morning across the area with lows down into the mid 20’s from Conroe to Huntsville and NE toward Lake Livingston. However a much bigger and stronger cold snap is on the way for early next week.

Upper level pattern will remain amplified through the period with high pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific into Alaska which will send another shot of very cold arctic air southward this weekend. Models continue to come in colder and colder with this air mass as more of the air mass pours southward down this plains before shifting eastward. This air mass means business and may set low temperature records in the northern plains which for January is very impressive…the forecast high temperature for Fargo, ND early next week is around -20F. Arctic boundary will plow through the region on Sunday with temperatures quickly falling into the 30’s and 40’s during the day. Luckily winds will stay up Sunday night, but still expect a widespread freeze and wind chill values into the 10’s and 20’s over the entire region.

Big concern is Monday night into Tuesday morning as arctic high builds overhead and winds go nearly calm under clear skies and very low dewpoints (8-16 degrees over the area). Expect temperatures to fall below freezing shortly after sunset and remain below freezing for up to 12-15 hours. Looks like lows could fall into the upper 10’s across our northern counties with low to mid 20’s along the US 59 corridor and even freezing at the coast. Will likely need a hard freeze warning for most areas for next Monday night as many areas will fall below 25 degrees for more than 2 hours. Tropical plants will need protection along with any exposed outdoor pipes and sprinkler systems. We are still a good bit of time before the event so temperatures could trend upward or downward over the weekend…but residents should take advantage of the “warmer” weather on Saturday to prepare for the upcoming very cold conditions.

[CajunMama]

Colder weather coming next week. NWS has forecasted it to be 22F Tuesday morning. Of course I drive to New Orleans on Tuesday morning about 5am to fly out to Orlando where it will be 38F on Wednesday morning.

[vbhoutex]

Our local OCM are finally coming around with 26f for Mon. morning and 24f for Tues. morning. I think they will have to come down some more as we get closer. Have fun in cold Orlando!!
Our southerly flow off the Gulf ahead of the next front started around midnight last night when it was 41f. Woke up to 47f this am.

[southerngale]

NWS has my low Tuesday morning at 20°! Brrrrrr.... my body is already shivering! wxman57, can you do something about this, please?

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

[CajunMama]

Our local OCM are finally coming around with 26f for Mon. morning and 24f for Tues. morning. I think they will have to come down some more as we get closer. Have fun in cold Orlando!!
Our southerly flow off the Gulf ahead of the next front started around midnight last night when it was 41f. Woke up to 47f this am.

I've already "thanked" AJC3 on fb for the cold weather in SUNNY WARM Florida.

[PTrackerLA]

18 degrees is our forecast low Monday night with the NWS saying it could even be colder. Coldest since 1996! Goodbye Queen Palms .

[BreinLa]

That is just too cold PT I just spent a week in Tennessee with 20's in the morning, had enough of being frozen. Won't be getting out of this house till the warm up lol

[CajunMama]

Bre, I'll be leaving for the New Orleans airport about 5am on Tuesday morning. Thank goodness my new car has heated seats and steering wheel!!!

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's take on the incoming cold:

Arctic cold front will bring very cold conditions to the region Sun-Tues…coldest air in 3 years is likely.

Preparations for a damaging hard freeze should be underway.
Arctic boundary is blasting down the plains this morning and will plow across TX tonight and off the coast early Sunday. High temperatures will occur prior to the frontal passage with a quick drop and continued fall of temperatures all day on Sunday even under mostly clear skies. Strong north winds of 25-30mph will drive wind chills into the 20’s and 30’s on Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday morning:

Damaging advective freeze is likely across much of the area along with gusty north winds and low wind chills. Large 1040mb arctic high building into TX will continue winds overnight and this would usually save the region from a freeze however this air mass is so cold that the freezing line will push south under the influence of the strong cold air advection. Expect temperatures to fall to freezing by mid evening north of HWY 105 and midnight north of US 59. Lows Monday morning will range from 24-27 north of HWY 105 to 26-30 along and N of US 59 to 31-35 along the coast. Gusty north winds will hamper the typical freeze precautions of covering tropical vegetation as this process does not work well with the wind blowing and removing the ground warmth away from the vegetation. These types of freezes tend to be damaging for vegetation for this area. Wind chills Monday morning will range from 15-22 across the region. Duration below freezing 6-10 hours.

Cold air advection will continue on Monday with highs only reaching the low to mid 40’s under sunny conditions and continued north winds.

Monday night-Tuesday Morning:

Large arctic high pressure dome will be nearly overhead with very low dewpoints (1’s to 10’s) over the region with clear skies and near calm winds. This supports an excellent setup for a hard radiative freeze across much of the area. One item that may keep the temperatures from really bottoming out is that the large high will be moving eastward during this time and may get just far enough east to allow a weak onshore wind flow to develop between 300am and 600am Tuesday morning…however this will likely not save the area from a hard freeze…but may keep areas out of the upper 10’s. Expected lows will range from 19-22 north of HWY 105, 21-26 along and N of US 59, and 28-32 along the coast. Interior coastal counties could be in the 26-29 range. Some of the latest model guidance is even colder than this for Tuesday morning with the GFS forecasting a low of 15 at Conroe….think this is a bit too cold at the moment…but will have to watch. Duration below freezing 12-16 hours.

Large arctic high moves eastward Tuesday allowing southerly winds to return and a fairly quick return of moisture. Dewpoints will rise into the 50’s by Thursday and with very cold nearshore temperatures may start to see sea fog and drizzle move inland from Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

I've already covered our plants and put the faucet covers on. Pipes in the attic have been wrapped for years so they should be ok.
Based on Jeff's email, Larry Cosgrove and local OCM calls I am expecting 22-24 Monday morning and 18-22 Tuesday morning and I am talking about where I live near W Sam Houston Tollway and I-10 as opposed to the real burbs where 15-20 will not be a surprise to me on Tuesday.

[BigB0882]

Our local met called for a low of 17 Tuesday morning in Baton Rouge. Yikes.

[BreinLa]

Bre, I'll be leaving for the New Orleans airport about 5am on Tuesday morning. Thank goodness my new car has heated seats and steering wheel!!!

So where ya going Mama? Hope there is no wind at the airport for you when we left Christmas Night it was a rough trip from the parking lot to the warmth lol

[Jagno]

Our local mets are saying temps at 20º with wind chills Tuesday morning possibly as low as 11º. OMG, I don't remember it being that cold since I got married in 1980 when it was 16º here. My homes pipes are not exposed to the north but our business is a whole different story so we've got a lot of work to do today.

I've got to make arrangements to bring my labs in. The last time I brought them in they chewed my staircase through and through two risers, ate part of the couch and wooden bench seats. It cost me almost $300 just to have the wood repaired/replaced and thank God my son does upholstery repair or it would have been much higher. I think I'm going to find another location for them this time.

[vbhoutex]

woke up to 64f this am. In the last hour since the front came through we are now down to 42f with winds NW @ 20 gusting to 27. Hoping we don't keep dropping but it would not be a surprise. Not looking forward to the next 2-3 days unless of course something strange happens and we get a snowprise.