Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Tireman4]

I believe it when I see it. I recall we were suppose to have a very wet and cold winter last year and poof nothing.

Agreed. Worst. Winter. Ever.

[Brent]

I believe it when I see it. I recall we were suppose to have a very wet and cold winter last year and poof nothing.

Agreed. Worst. Winter. Ever.

^^^

I refuse to even call last year a winter...

[CaptinCrunch]

October on pace to record warm month.

As we are in the last week of October 2016 this month is on pace to be in the top 5 warmest Octobers on record. While October is usually the transition month from late summer to Fall this October has been anything but that. October has been very warm across much of the US, with many cities tying or breaking records for warmest October dates from New Mexico all the way up to New Hampshire.

Here in NCTX with 6 days remaining in the month and high temperatures forecast to be 7 to 14 degrees above average through Halloween, this October has definitively been a major let down for Fall lovers. October is currently +5.3 degrees above the monthly mean and we are -1.19" below the average precip for the month, (October is usually our 2nd wettest month of the year) and with weak La Nina conditions currently present (SST's -0.6) and expected to continue into January, the early forecast for a warmer/drier winter across much of Texas except for maybe the northern Panhandle where winter conditions are expected to be closer to normal looks to be good.

So there is no need to wait till Halloween to figure out what the 2016/17 winter will be like, So here my take on this winter....

Last years super El Nino was a once in a 50 year event, and not many long or short range forecast held up (Bust) over the course of last winter. (what Winter)
So it's of my own opinion that this winter will be (colder/cooler) than last winter, even with weak La Nina/ENSO conditions expected, and still be considered a (warmer) than normal winter.

First official freeze of the season on average for NTX (DFW Airport) happens around the 22nd of November. My first official freeze forecast is November 29th. (will see freeze earlier in the outline counties around DFW metro)

December - above avg temperatures and below average precip chances.
January - slightly above avg temps and average precip chances. (current weak La Nina to transition back to ENSO neutral by late January)
February - Average temps and slightly above average precip. (February will be the target month for winter precip as the northern jet slides further south.) this will also enhance our precip chance as storm systems will drop further south before ejecting out over the lower plain states.

I'm going to add March in to the mix as I think winter will carry over into the first 10 days of the month and wouldn't count out a possible early March winter storm.


There you have it, (IMO) the 2016/17 NTX Winter Outlook.

[Portastorm]

This forecast gets the Grey Goose Seal of Approval from the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County.

I like the ideas forwarded and generally agree with the logic and the layout, chronologically, of how winter might play out for us. Good work Captin!

[Ralph's Weather]

The models seem to be sniffing out the expected early season Arctic intrusion next month. This will be the beginning of a roller coaster type winter which averaged out I expect will be somewhere around 3 degrees below normal. There are few if any warm indicators for us and the dominant players will be strong blocking over the GoA and Arctic and at times the N Atl, little to no STJ to speak of so many blue northers are in our future.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The models seem to be sniffing out the expected early season Arctic intrusion next month. This will be the beginning of a roller coaster type winter which averaged out I expect will be somewhere around 3 degrees below normal. There are few if any warm indicators for us and the dominant players will be strong blocking over the GoA and Arctic and at times the N Atl, little to no STJ to speak of so many blue northers are in our future.

I remember numerous blue northers when I was a kid. I feel like we really haven't seen any true northers in many years.

[Ntxw]

I am not comfortable making a call for any type of winter. You don't quite have an El Nino and you don't quite have a La Nina. It MAY achieve a weak La Nina, but that is currently in limbo. These type of years are a tough forecast. You can almost bet that in a cold neutralish year that there will be an ice storm in December!

[JDawg512]

I am not comfortable making a call for any type of winter. You don't quite have an El Nino and you don't quite have a La Nina. It MAY achieve a weak La Nina, but that is currently in limbo. These type of years are a tough forecast. You can almost bet that in a cold neutralish year that there will be an ice storm in December!

I'm on board with you in your assessment. I'm not ready to settle on a particular winter forecast just yet. Sure we are experiencing a warmer and drier Autumn but as we have seen over the past couple of years, patterns tend to stagnate in 4-6-8 week intervals, then a major flip to a very different pattern which then stagnates for 4-6-8 weeks.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It looks as if the waters on the equator are cooling even further. The warm pool took a slight hit this past month, but a warmer body of water to the SW of the GOA is getting stronger.

[Brent]

This better be a hard pattern flip after this endless warmth...

[wxman57]

Here's an outlook for winter across the U.S.

[Stormcenter]

Winter outlooks are like NFL preseason picks....not worth much. IMO

[Tireman4]

Here's an outlook for winter across the U.S.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvyYKxqXgAAqXD-.jpg

Ok, did you do this map? Alaska..NOPE..that so sounds like you..LOL

[CaptinCrunch]

Fall Heat Wave Will Smash Records From Halloween Into the First Days of November

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/record-warmth-west-central-south-late-october

The warmest October on record for NTX is 1963 with a monthly avg temp of 73.6 degrees. Currently thru October 30th 2016 the monthly avg is 74.3 degrees (+6.5 above avg) with another record high (86) expected today.

[Tireman4]

Fall Heat Wave Will Smash Records From Halloween Into the First Days of November

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/record-warmth-west-central-south-late-october

The warmest October on record for NTX is 1963 with a monthly avg temp of 73.6 degrees. Currently thru October 30th 2016 the monthly avg is 74.3 degrees (+6.5 above avg) with another record high (86) expected today.

Ok, Captin..how did you find those numbers? Do you know HGX?

[Portastorm]

Larry Cosgrove came out today with his winter forecast. He sees a pretty good cold snap for us by mid November into the end of the month. He believes Thanksgiving could be a chilly one for Texas. December will be variable with periods of warmer/colder than usual ... and then things go downhill quickly as January-March will be quite cold. Larry did a great job with last winter's forecast as well as this past Fall ... which he nailed. I'm hoping he's right about this winter!

[Tireman4]

Larry Cosgrove came out today with his winter forecast. He sees a pretty good cold snap for us by mid November into the end of the month. He believes Thanksgiving could be a chilly one for Texas. December will be variable with periods of warmer/colder than usual ... and then things go downhill quickly as January-March will be quite cold. Larry did a great job with last winter's forecast as well as this past Fall ... which he nailed. I'm hoping he's right about this winter!

Ok Porta. I will state this. You will get your snow. Champ the Charger will get to run in the ice. The weather gods have spoken. The Grey Goose will be a'flowin.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Larry Cosgrove came out today with his winter forecast. He sees a pretty good cold snap for us by mid November into the end of the month. He believes Thanksgiving could be a chilly one for Texas. December will be variable with periods of warmer/colder than usual ... and then things go downhill quickly as January-March will be quite cold. Larry did a great job with last winter's forecast as well as this past Fall ... which he nailed. I'm hoping he's right about this winter!

I really respect him. I remember him being the one guy who didnt think Houston folks would get much out of a snow system in Feb 2011 and he was right. :/ Love his work.

[vbhoutex]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/793226675567861760

[Ralph's Weather]

All of the talk of 1983 being as good of an analog as any bring to mind this 500mb chart from 12/23/1983.