Texas Winter 2023-2024

[weatherdude1108]

I never thought a stronger Niño would underperform so much.

[Iceresistance]

I never thought a stronger Niño would underperform so much.

-PDO is being problematic, it is slowly vanishing though

[Stratton23]

Overnight model runs look like a pile of dung, seems like alot of folks are going to miss out with this bowling ball low, the trends are not you’re friend

[Brent]

Overnight model runs look like a pile of dung, seems like alot of folks are going to miss out with this bowling ball low, the trends are not you’re friend

Lmao the GFS doesn't even rain I mean I don't understand it anymore oh you can't make this pattern up if you tried. Just awful really

Every single thing that looks good in fantasy land falls apart

[Stratton23]

Brent seems like the only thing the models are good at right now is getting you’re hopes up, and then quickly crushing them a few runs later lol

[CaptinCrunch]

Please don't get overly disappointed with what the models are putting out this far out. The models will flip-flop so much in 7 days it will make to sea sick. As the -PDO slowly weakens the pattern over the U.S will change and start shifting to a more typical El Nino pattern. December has never been that great for Winter weather in NTX, yes it can get crazy cold but that usually last only 4-5 days then it's back to false spring. I don't expect our Winter in NTX to get going till mid January thru mid March as the PDO moves into a neutral/positive phase.

I enjoy all the model watching like everyone else, just don't go all Fansville over it, it's just the 1st play of the game!

[Stratton23]

CaptainCrunch its not even the winter weather part, its the fact that the models keep showing some promising system for rain every time, and it almost always ends up being a bust for widespread rain, the track of this bowling bowl is almost a lock now, most of the state wont get much rain out of this, until that -PDO weakens appreciably, its going to be difficult to get a good widespread rain event here

[Yukon Cornelius]

Forecasted low last night/this morning was 33, it ended up being 26.

[Brent]

CaptainCrunch its not even the winter weather part, its the fact that the models keep showing some promising system for rain every time, and it almost always ends up being a bust for widespread rain, the track of this bowling bowl is almost a lock now, most of the state wont get much rain out of this, until that -PDO weakens appreciably, its going to be difficult to get a good widespread rain event here

Exactly my point. I'm not even worried about wintry weather yet it's the fact the rain continues to disappoint. I thought we had a favorable SOI index didn't that used to mean something?

[Cpv17]

CaptainCrunch its not even the winter weather part, its the fact that the models keep showing some promising system for rain every time, and it almost always ends up being a bust for widespread rain, the track of this bowling bowl is almost a lock now, most of the state wont get much rain out of this, until that -PDO weakens appreciably, its going to be difficult to get a good widespread rain event here

Exactly my point. I'm not even worried about wintry weather yet it's the fact the rain continues to disappoint. I thought we had a favorable SOI index or whatever ???

Exactly! This -PDO is stubborn as hell.

[bubba hotep]

Only positive so far from the 12z models is that the GEFS is loading up our source region with cold air before Christmas. Will it get delivered on time?

[Iceresistance]

CaptainCrunch its not even the winter weather part, its the fact that the models keep showing some promising system for rain every time, and it almost always ends up being a bust for widespread rain, the track of this bowling bowl is almost a lock now, most of the state wont get much rain out of this, until that -PDO weakens appreciably, its going to be difficult to get a good widespread rain event here

Exactly my point. I'm not even worried about wintry weather yet it's the fact the rain continues to disappoint. I thought we had a favorable SOI index or whatever ???

Exactly! This -PDO is stubborn as hell.

The -PDO literally wastes our precip. potential.

[Iceresistance]

Only positive so far from the 12z models is that the GEFS is loading up our source region with cold air before Christmas. Will it get delivered on time?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023120312/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

Also this

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SibUT.png

The ECR (East Coast Ridge) will block the cold from spilling east and funnel it down to Texas and Mexico

[CaptinCrunch]

Exactly my point. I'm not even worried about wintry weather yet it's the fact the rain continues to disappoint. I thought we had a favorable SOI index or whatever ???

Exactly! This -PDO is stubborn as hell.

The -PDO literally wastes our precip. potential.

A -PDO minimizes/suppresses the effect of El Nino/La Nina while a +PDO does the exact opposite.

[Iceresistance]

Exactly! This -PDO is stubborn as hell.

The -PDO literally wastes our precip. potential.

A -PDO minimizes/suppresses the effect of El Nino/La Nina while a +PDO does the exact opposite.

I thought the -PDO encourages the La Nina effects

[CaptinCrunch]

The -PDO literally wastes our precip. potential.

A -PDO minimizes/suppresses the effect of El Nino/La Nina while a +PDO does the exact opposite.

I thought the -PDO encourages the La Nina effects

El Nino and La Nina effects are mostly felt during our Winter months.

[Stratton23]

Man these overnight model runs are an absolute snooze fest, looks like a very boring next couple of weeks here across the state

[Cpv17]

I wonder when the firehose is gonna turn off for the Pacific NW. They’ve been getting hammered for what seems like weeks now.

[WacoWx]

Found this in another forum. Pretty interesting.

NWS:

chances for the northeast quarter. Latest global model forecasts
are now in good agreement with how the Asian- Pacific (AP) jet
stream evolves late in the week. Typhoon Michaung (TC08B) in the
Bay of Bengal is resulting in quite the lack of deep tropical
convection in the WPAC and Maritime Continent, leading to a very
weak AP jet stream over the NPAC late in the week.

Why do a typhoon and tropical thunderstorms 9,000 miles away
matter? During El Nino, WPAC convection is typically below
average, but still plenty active at times to result in an enhanced
AP jet off the east coast of Japan. Now there is so little
convection forecast in the WPAC late next week into next weekend
that the AP jet splits in two off the coast of Japan instead of
much farther downstream north of HI. Clear as mud? All of this
means the typical El Nino influences are muted by a typhoon and
other deep convection in the Arabian Sea that are able to exist
for long periods of time this year during El Nino thanks to warmer
than average waters in the Indian Ocean. ECMWF ENS model
continues to key on late December into early January as active
periods for the Southwest U.S. and NM as this pattern slowly
breaks down. A Typhoon like Michaung and the deep convection in
the Arabian Sea are in no way unprecedented, but their long- lived
presence during El Nino lowers forecaster confidence during the
extended forecast period. Above average precipitation in NM during
the month of December 2023 just got harder for the atmosphere to
generate.

[cstrunk]

15% severe risk outlined on the Day 6 SPC Outlook covers much of ETX, LA, and AR. All hazards possible. Saturday will be a day to watch.