Pacific Northwest Weather

[W13]

33 F as of 4:00 PM ... dropping like a rock now!

[W13]

Still no new NWS Forecast Discussion as of 4:01 PM, latest I have seen it go so far this whole winter.

[W13]

Latest NWS Forecast Discussion:

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP JUST THIN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND AREAS OF SNOW
AND POSSIBLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. THAT SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A
TRANSITION TO A WET AND WARMER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...DOMINATED BY
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE NEAR 130W CONTINUES
TO ERODE AS IT IS BEING UNDERCUT BY THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
NEAR 35N/135W. THIN CIRRUS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS COOLING IS CRUCIAL SINCE IT MAY PRECONDITION THE
AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST LOCAL FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST REMAINS
ON TRACK. 18Z ETA HAS MIGRATED TO THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION SO IT
LOOKS LIKE RAIN DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST HEADACHE IS PRECIP TYPE. GIVEN THE COLD MORNING LOWS AND
SLOWER WARMING DUE TO ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...GOOD CHANCE THERE WILL
BE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING AIR LEFT-OVER. EVEN SOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING SPOTS COULD COOL BACK TO FREEZING WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. COUNTERING THAT IS THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE FREEZING RAIN THAN THE ETA...BUT ALSO SEEM
BIASED A LITTLE TOO COLD. GFS MOS TEMPS INDICATE THAT FREEZING RAIN
IS WITHIN REACH BUT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR CERTAIN. COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY ON...BUT CHOSE TO EMPHASIZE THE FREEZING
RAIN VS. SNOW IN THE GRIDS. DID INCLUDE LOCAL SNOW WORDING FOR THE
KITSAP PENINSULA AREA...WHICH PROBABLY HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SNOW.
IN SUM...EXPECT A COLD RAIN TO DEVELOP MOST AREAS...BUT SINCE
FREEZING RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT HAVE GONE WITH LOCAL FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHLIGHTS IN THE ZONES AND A STATEMENT.

WHATCOM COUNTY IS THE EXCEPTION...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR IN PLACE
HAVE GONE WITH SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING THROUGH FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS WEREN`T VERY HIGH SO ONLY
MENTIONED A COUPLE OF INCHES. WILL NEED TO PUT UP WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THERE...PROBABLY LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS
SHOULD BE BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT COULD ALSO HAVE LOCAL
FREEZING RAIN ON THE APPROACHES TO THE PASSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
EAST FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES SHOULD MAINTAIN SNOW THERE INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED...REMAINDER FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE VERY
MOIST SW FLOW ALL NEXT WEEK. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN LIKELY
FORECAST IS CONTINUED THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
SUNDAY IS KIND OF A BLAH SOMEWHAT WET TRANSITION DAY. MAIN QUESTION
FOR NEXT WEEK IS WHETHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR RIVER
FLOODING. DECENT BET IF RECENT GFS PANS OUT. ECMWF HAS LOWER QPF AND
IS PREFERRED ACCORDING TO NCEP EXTENDED DISCUSSIONS. KAM

&&

[AnthonyC]

To sum up the NWS discussion...FREEZING RAIN LIKELY OVER A MAJORITY OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AT LEAST INITIALLY. They don't mention too much snow which sucks. The discussion is very broad and uninformative. Hopefully it stays clear tonight...if we can drop to 20 F, things look better for tomorrow. Any cloud cover will limit this raditional cooling.

[W13]

To sum up the NWS discussion...FREEZING RAIN LIKELY OVER A MAJORITY OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AT LEAST INITIALLY. They don't mention too much snow which sucks. The discussion is very broad and uninformative. Hopefully it stays clear tonight...if we can drop to 20 F, things look better for tomorrow. Any cloud cover will limit this raditional cooling.

Don't worry about snow not being mentioned very much in the Forecast Discussion, it was updated by Kam, who if you remember is very pesimistic with his forecasts.

[W13]

Down to 32 F as of 4:07 PM, temperature is dropping an average of 1 degree about every ten minutes. Haven't seen the temp drop as fast as it is right now all winter long, which could be a good sign for tommorow.

[W13]

Now down to 31 F, with a Dew Point of 14 F, as of 4:16 PM

[W13]

30 F, with a Dew Point of 14 F as of 4:34 PM

[W13]

29 F with a Dew Point of 14 F as of 5:02 PM

[andycottle]

Generally clear skies here in Woodinville with a temp of 29.1 degrees and DP 19 as of 5:36pm. Humidity is 65% and baro 30.27 and steady.
-- Andy

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Southeastern Portland at my house it is 30 degrees. The temperature gauge in my back yard says 28 degrees. With a strong east wind. Ice is 2 inches...Portland Report reported at 5pm 34 degrees with 12 degrees dew point. Winds at 25 mph??? Wind chill 22 degrees.

The sky is clear at this moment. With the warm front moving northeast. Maybe some snow!!!

[R-Dub]

I still have a feeling we will see snow for at least several hrs tomarrow, then freezing rain. Just a feeling. Expecially Everett area north.

1/14/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:03:23 PM CURRENT
Clear
Temperature (ºF) 25.4
Humidity (%) 69.8
Wind (mph) NNW 0.0
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.42
Dew Point: 18.7 ºF

[AnthonyC]

Already down to 26 F, dewpoint 17 F. Clear skies all around...if that continues, definitely coldest night of the year. I'm still not getting my hopes up for tomorrow. Nothing has gone our way this winter. Until it happens, I'm a skeptic.

Anthony

[andycottle]

Ok...now we all know this winter it seems like that snow has been hard to come by, interms of getting a good amount for thoes of you who ski and snow board. Well today, I took a little walk here on the tolt pipeline late this afternoon, and to amazment...the Cascades are looking just ever so beautiful with the preaty white snow on them. Very cool looking indeed!
(see link to the pics I took today)
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004/album?.dir=646e


-- Andy

[R-Dub]

I was watching the news coverage of the Dec 96 storm to see how that storm tracked. Boy that was incredible! Don't know if I will see another snowstorm like that again in my lifetime. Hope I do, but 2" is hard to get around here let alone 2 feet! Cars on I-5 in downtown seattle bottomed out and couldn't move because of all the snow in the middle of the lanes, medics had to walk or use snowmobiles to get around! Then after the warm up, the major flooding, and landslides everywhere! That was quite the winter. 1985, 1990, and 1996 were my biggest most memorable winters!

[TT-SEA]

Man... I gotta see that coverage.

Below is a link to a website that highlights the big snowstorms in Seattle history.

As big as the 1996 storm was... they list it as the "Not-So-Big Snow of 1996".

Amazing.


http://www.historylink.org/essays/output.cfm?file_id=3681

[andycottle]

Hi folks. Looking at tonights latest UW MM5 model images for Saturday evening, it appears that I may see a little snow before the turn over to rain. Surface temps though, for this time are just a little above the freezing mark and temps near +6C at 925mb and 850MB heights 1440 or so..with temp ranging from +3 to +6C. Ahhh, but wait. Up at 700MB..temp is -4C with a height of 1300M. So maybe snow or a rain/snow mix. I will see. 500MB height is around 550DM with a temp of about -18C. As far as frozen precip goes...looks like a 20 to 30% chance at best, for the 39 to 42hr period of Saturday evening. Over all, think I might get an inch or two at best.

-- Andy

[R-Dub]

Yeah Western WA has seen major heavy snows over the last 100yrs or more. Just not much in my lifetime. Big Snowfalls I remember would be... 12" in 1983
14" in the big November chill of 1985
14" in the arctic express of Dec 1990
12" in the March storm of 1990 I think it was.
9" in November of 1996
26" in the big one of Dec 1996
8" in Dec 1998 8 degrees for my low temp one of those nights!
10" Febuary 2001
8" March 2002 first day of spring.

[AnthonyC]

The only memorable snowstorms I truly remember were Nov. 1996...the SURPRISE 10 inches...Dec. 1996...the TWO feet...the few inches we saw during the winter of 1997-1998...MOST NOTABLE because of El Nino. But that's about it. It seems we haven't had a decent snowstorm for almost 10 years. Global Warming.

Anthony

Currently 25 F, dewpoint 15 F.

[W13]

27 F with a Dew Point of 13 F as of 8:00 PM