southern plains freezing rain/sleet thread

[wxman22]

(NWS in Houston)DISCUSSION...
CF ALONG A TEXARKANA TO CORSICANA LINE THIS EVENING. IT WILL REACH
EXT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SE TX AROUND 11 PM. HAVE SPED UP THE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA AN HOUR OR TWO...SO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST. LOWERED MIN TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE CEN AND
COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT...ALSO INCREASED WINDS ACROSS INLAND AREAS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. NW ZONES WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT. BELIEVE THAT THE ATMOS IS TOO CAPPED
FOR TSTMS ACROSS SE TX...SO REMOVED THEM FROM TONIGHT`S FORECAST AND
LEFT IN SHWRS. COULD SEE FOG AFT MIDNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL ZONES AND 1ST
INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES...BUT WINDS MAY REMAIN TOO HIGH...WE WILL SEE.
DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FZRA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUN MORNING ACROSS THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
30S...SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE. FUTURE SHIFTS HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO
EVALUATE HOW MUCH OF A THREAT FZRA MIGHT BE ACROSS THE NW. STAY TUNED.
33
&&

[aggiecutter]

GP, We, Texarkana, had around an inch of ice accumulation, freezing rain, in December of 2000. It devastated everything around here.

[cheezyWXguy]

ya...I think we may have a little more sleet than forecasted...I hope so...after all, they have been putting more sleet into my forecast than before

[aggiecutter]

Updated Texarkana forcast...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

[cheezyWXguy]

yay! both my highs are at or below freezinf...ive already reached my high today...it was 38 and now the temp is 31

[cheezyWXguy]

hey plainsman, what do u think our accumulations will be by tomorrow morning?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is my prediction for North Houston:

Today = Dropping through the 40s all day with breezy winds and a 30% chance of light showers. Overcast.

Tonight = Mostly cloudy and cold with lows in the upper 30s to near 40F. 20-40% chance of light rain.

Saturday = Cloudy and very cold. Highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s. 50-60% chance of light rain...may be a sleet pellet or two.

Saturday night = Cloudy and very cold. Lows in the lower to middle 30s. 50% chance of rain, mixing with freezing rain or sleet in a few areas.

Sunday = Cloudy and very cold. Highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s. 40-50% chance of light rain...may be some sleet or freezing rain in the morning.

Sunday night = Mostly cloudy and cold. Lows in the middle to upper 30s. 30-40% chance of light rain.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS update:

.UPDATE...
1105 AM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN COMANCHE...AND
ATHENS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN AREAS WHERE THE LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING...THUS NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. A BIT OF GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING LIGHTER QPFS THAT YESTERDAY ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. WE WILL LEAVE THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW...AND
WILL ISSUE WHATEVER ADVISORIES...OR WARNINGS IF NEEDED...WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME.

[plainsman]

i think will see and inch of ice at least total out of this.. just like the nws said no major changes have been made... let the fun of ice and sleet begin this evening and last till monday morning.... just cus the nws said precip looks lighter now.. dont put too much stock into that gboudx... we all know how 1/4 of an inch of ice can be devestating.. im saying 1/4 inch of ice by tomorrow morning and at least an inch of ice total out of this 1-3 inches of ice and sleet is what im saying maybe 4.. we shall see...

[gboudx]

You lost me there. Are you predicting an inch of ice from freezing rain, with an additional 2-3" of sleet?

[gboudx]

BTW, the high temp for my area was supposed to be 38. Currently, it's 43.

[plainsman]

ya like 1 maybe 2 inches of inch of solid ice and one inch of sleet/snow... it could easily be more though most mets and accuweather still think some snow will be mixed in but this will mainly be a freezing rain sleet event

[CaptinCrunch]

BTW, the high temp for my area was supposed to be 38. Currently, it's 43.

Current temp at 1:25pm in Downtown Ft Worth TX is 37 degrees!!

[gboudx]

Winter Storm Watch for DFW area cancelled. Precip not as impressive as first thought.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
RADARS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO FAR ALL WE/VE SEEN IS JUST SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN AS TMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS MOST OF TEH FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY
COOL...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ACROSS ALL
BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE 1000-850 MB PARTIAL THICKNESS CHARTS...
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE FROM RAIN THIS
EVENING...TO SOME FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OVERNIGHT.
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS...THUS WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM
WATCH AND REPLACE IT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO CANTON
LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND GIVEN THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THEN...SOME TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. #58

[gboudx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTH TEXAS IS CANCELED. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SLEET FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...TO CANTON...

.COLD AIR OVER NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN PLACE BUT IT IS A BIT DRIER
AND NOT QUITE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EVEN
THOUGH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED...FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. IN ADDITION...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
RELATIVELY WARM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MELT ANY FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET EVEN THOUGH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATIONS.
WINTER WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE ADVISORY
MAY BE EXTENDED TO COVER THAT PERIOD.

[cheezyWXguy]

personally, I think well see about 1/10th to 1/4th of an inch tonite and i think that winter weather advisory will get turned into a winter storm warning tomorrow sometime as the bulk of the moisture mves into the area

[plainsman]

me too cheezy! light freezing rain and sleet will move in tonight causing a glaze on the roads.. but the bulk of the winter precip for Dallas is not going to hit until saturday afternoon through sunday afternoon but i still expect 1 inch of ice.. theres still plenty of moisture to work with! accuweather has the bulk of the wintry precip right over Dallas on the ice storm map if you look...... a winter storm warning will be issued tomorrow at noon i can gurantee that! i think this will be a whopper of an icestorm fro North Texas.......

[cheezyWXguy]

man i kindaa like this...I hope its not a full inch of ice...im hoping its only about 1/2 inch with about 1-2 inches of sleet on top of that....I hope we get a good one...but not so much that its totally devastating

[gboudx]

So plainsman, what is the DFW NWS missing? I would think that if they thought we'd get an inch of ice/sleet that the WSW would been left up. But they canceled it due to QPF being lower and the air being drier. Why do you think they're wrong?

[cheezyWXguy]

well for one thing its only one model run from each model...who knows...it can change i mean look at houston's forecast...they have ice, at least at nite...besides...I remember valentines day 2004....the nite before we were barely supposed to get a dsting...that pulled out to 6 inches in my neighborhood