Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[double D]

The NWS forecasts remain unchanged this morning. Austin has even risen their temps! Makes me wonder a little bit about whether or not we will get as cold as I have been hearing. Still such a confusing situation.
The 6Z GFS does still show winter precip. for the state and even has it reaching Houston (still) Friday morning. That is pretty significant, yet the NWS offices are reluctant to even mention the chances it seems...except Dallas who is now calling for a rain/sleet mix as far SE as Athens, TX on Friday night.

Looks like it will still take another few days to figure this all out.

Also, the strange thing is that Houston referred to this yet again as "arctic air" moving this way, yet their numbers (high of 53F, low of 30F on the coldest day) don't really reflect what "arctic air" should do.

Hopefully we know more by this afternoon..

BTW: KHOU.com is forecasting a high of 49F on Friday for Houston.

The San Angelo NWS still has Mason, Tx with a high of 41 for Thursday. San Antonio/Austin NWS has Fredericksburg with a high of 65 which is only 40 miles south of Mason. That is a 24 degree difference. Like I said earlier someone is going to bust big.

[Portastorm]

The NWS forecasts remain unchanged this morning. Austin has even risen their temps! Makes me wonder a little bit about whether or not we will get as cold as I have been hearing. Still such a confusing situation.
The 6Z GFS does still show winter precip. for the state and even has it reaching Houston (still) Friday morning. That is pretty significant, yet the NWS offices are reluctant to even mention the chances it seems...except Dallas who is now calling for a rain/sleet mix as far SE as Athens, TX on Friday night.

Looks like it will still take another few days to figure this all out.

Also, the strange thing is that Houston referred to this yet again as "arctic air" moving this way, yet their numbers (high of 53F, low of 30F on the coldest day) don't really reflect what "arctic air" should do.

Hopefully we know more by this afternoon..

BTW: KHOU.com is forecasting a high of 49F on Friday for Houston.

The San Angelo NWS still has Mason, Tx with a high of 41 for Thursday. San Antonio/Austin NWS has Fredericksburg with a high of 65 which is only 40 miles south of Mason. That is a 24 degree difference. Like I said earlier someone is going to bust big.

double D, you're on to something good here ... in the past, I have always tracked what San Angelo and Fort Worth forecast for areas just north of Austin and the Hill Country. Nearly every episode, the Austin-San Antonio forecasters end up being too warm. You'll see this discrepancy probably until 24 hrs before frontal passage.

Indeed, SOMEONE will bust here unless they get closer on the temp spread.

[Portastorm]

One other thought I wanted to share early this AM. I often look to the NWS forecasters in Norman, Oklahoma, when looking at polar fronts. They always seem to have a good read on these things. Check out this snippet from their morning forecast discussion ... at the very least, NORTH Texas should be concerned not only for later this week but early next week ...

"UPPER PATTERN FEATURES TROFING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AND HANGING BACK INTO THE SW STATES. GFS
AND DGEX FORECAST A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW BY NEXT SUN. WITH BROAD
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE... THIS IS A CLASSIC LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE S PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MOST LIKELY MON OR THEREABOUTS. FAR TOO MANY IFS TO NAIL
THIS ONE DOWN YET...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THINGS CLOSELY AS THESE
EVENTS OFTEN HAPPEN IN BUNCHES ONCE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETS UP."

[wx247]

Keep in mind... we are still 4 days out from the event. The NWS has to stay somewhat middle of the road until things become a little more certain. Watch over the next 24 hours for these forecasts to congeal.

[wx247]

One other thought I wanted to share early this AM. I often look to the NWS forecasters in Norman, Oklahoma, when looking at polar fronts. They always seem to have a good read on these things. Check out this snippet from their morning forecast discussion ... at the very least, NORTH Texas should be concerned not only for later this week but early next week ...

"UPPER PATTERN FEATURES TROFING
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AND HANGING BACK INTO THE SW STATES. GFS
AND DGEX FORECAST A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW BY NEXT SUN. WITH BROAD
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE... THIS IS A CLASSIC LARGE SCALE PATTERN
FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE S PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MOST LIKELY MON OR THEREABOUTS. FAR TOO MANY IFS TO NAIL
THIS ONE DOWN YET...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THINGS CLOSELY AS THESE
EVENTS OFTEN HAPPEN IN BUNCHES ONCE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETS UP."

NWS Tulsa also mentions this potential this morning.

[jasons2k]

Just got an email from Jeff. He is predicting mid-upper 20's on Saturday morning. Here is a quote from his email:

"Temps. will be below freezing for several hours and will kill unprotected tropical vegetation."

That's the part that scares me. If this verfies, then the following plants that are widely planted in Houston are in danger of serious leaf burn or death:

-Palms: Queen Palms, Pygmy Date Palms, Majesty Palms, King Palms, Alexander Palms
-Bedding/Shrubs: Philodendrons, Bouganvilliea, Mandevilla, Bottle Brush, Cannas, Hibiscus
-Trees: Citrus (excluding kumquats), Norfolk Island Pine, Banana

Take cold weather measures now to save your plants!

{edited to add Hibiscus to the list - cover those too!}

[jasons2k]

Here is a shameless plug:

Check out the Hurricane Season - Revisted article I posted in the Talkin' Tropics forum. I have info. from Stacy Stewart's presentation here in Houston back in May.

[Portastorm]

Well, the 12z GFS run is out now for the most part ... and it shows little continuity from previous runs, especially with regards to the weekend. I might also add that this particular run has little in common with the 0z run of the Euro. The former looks warm early week in Texas followed by a snowstorm later in the week. The Euro, however, shows a reinforcing cold blast on Monday but is a bit drier.

I'm going to throw out this GFS run as it doesn't match well with its previous runs or the Euro.

[double D]

Well, the 12z GFS run is out now for the most part ... and it shows little continuity from previous runs, especially with regards to the weekend. I might also add that this particular run has little in common with the 0z run of the Euro. The former looks warm early week in Texas followed by a snowstorm later in the week. The Euro, however, shows a reinforcing cold blast on Monday but is a bit drier.

I'm going to throw out this GFS run as it doesn't match well with its previous runs or the Euro.

yeah that run does not look very "arctic" at all. It doesn't show a strong push down the plains, instead it starts to retreat the cold air to the north way to quick.

Also as EWG said earlier the GFS does not initialize the 1054 high pressure in Canada, instead it keeps it at 1044. I don't know if that is causing some of the problems or does it even matter?

[richtrav]

JS

Some of those tropicals are definitely tender, but others on that list should not be seriously threatened by temps in the upper 20s (queen palms, citrus, bottlebrush etc).

[Johnny]

What's the infamous JB saying today about this today?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What's the infamous JB saying today about this today?

Same as he has said for the past couple of days. Things will crash and surprise some folks. The 10 days starting Dec 1 will be quite below normal.

Regarding the GFS. Is it not a fact it seems to backtrack big time a few days out before a front comes in ?

[Portastorm]

What's the infamous JB saying today about this today?

Johnny (and others), I know you will be shocked by this revelation: JB is saying "winters worst" for southern Plains!

He is bullish on GFS-busting cold temps with potential for wintry precip for the northern half of Texas. He's also saying by mid December, we'll see normal to below to normal followed by a "wild rather than mild" last 10 days of December.

If he's right, then those of us in Texas are in for a very cold, potentially icy next 10-15 days with several possible storms.

I don't know ... like my Charlie Brown analogy ... I'm not so sure that Lucy is going to hold that football down for me. I'm not totally conviced yet.

[gboudx]

Been laid out on your back one-too many times eh Porta?

I hear ya though. I've learned to buy into wintry precip when I look outside and see it falling. Had that football pulled away too many times.

If the Norman AFD from this morning is correct, then we could do this again next week. They're talking about a potential Winter Storm Watch for them.

The ball is in place. Who wants to take a kick?

[jasons2k]

JS

Some of those tropicals are definitely tender, but others on that list should not be seriously threatened by temps in the upper 20s (queen palms, citrus, bottlebrush etc).

True, upper 20's those you listed will be OK. But if Houston Metro hits mid 20's then they will be in trouble, esp. if it is below freezing for several hours. Moreso for young/unestablished plants and in the suburbs.

FWIW I'm not sold that we'll be that cold in the first place, but IF we get the numbers Jeff is calling for, it could be bad news for gardeners.

IMO it'd be a good idea to do cold-weather prep. on the aforementioned plants - especially the less-hardy ones - just to be safe.

[jasons2k]

Just my $.02 on something - after reading AFDs for ~10 years online, being a Texan since 1988, and reading Bomar's Texas Weather cover-to-cover at least a dozen times:

Norman, Amarillo, Lubbock, DFW, and San Angelo often do a fine job with winter forecasts.

Norman & sometimes Amarillo (& SJT) have a track record of forecasting Arctic fronts before the other offices give in. They are a good source to get a "heads-up".

However (and here's the point) - be careful of assuming the same will occur across the Red River. Often the Panhandle & Oklahoma are in a different world when it comes to winter weather. You can have a blizzard in Amarillo and OKC, snow in Wichita Falls, and nothing but a cold rain in Dallas.

With stronger systems the same can be said further south: An Ice Storm in Dallas, rain in Austin, and still in the 40's in Houston.

With arctic systems in Texas/OK, there is often a HUGE delineation in temps from N-S, NW-SE, or even W-E depending in the trajectory of the high.

Just something to keep in mind....

[Kennethb]

With the potential for clouds and rain, that could be the saving grace for a killing freeze.

[JenBayles]

One of the key things to do for plants prior to a freeze is to water thoroughly. Dry roots freeze-dry and die a lot faster than wet ones. If you have a particularly sensistive plant than can't come inside, water well, cover with a sheet - no plastic! - and put a light bulb under the sheet. That should hopefully give you about 5 degrees of warmth, and just enough to prevent too much freeze damage.

Jen, the Bear Creek Gardener

edited for idiocy - Jen, the Blonde Bear Creek Gardener

[CaptinCrunch]

One of the key things to do for plants prior to a freeze is to water thoroughly. Wet roots freeze-dry and die a lot faster than wet ones. If you have a particularly sensistive plant than can't come inside, water well, cover with a sheet - no plastic! - and put a light bulb under the sheet. That should hopefully give you about 5 degrees of warmth, and just enough to prevent too much freeze damage.

Jen, the Bear Creek Gardener

You mean non-wet roots freeze-dry and die a lot faster than wet ones, right

[JenBayles]

Thanks for the catch Capn'! <slinks out of room>