Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

[Portastorm]

It's my fault. I don't want it to snow or ice or sleet for Christmas or next week. And that's what I had my kid ask Santa for. Looks like Santa will deliver.

Again, sorry.

gboudx, you better get him to ask for a New Year's week winter storm for Texas while the asking's good, ok?!

[wxman22]

Although the full run of the 12z GFS is not complete yet. But I did find it intresting that the new model run shows the disturbance further north than previous runs? See for yourselfs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054m.gif

(In hour 54 im not sure if the system suddenly gets shoved off to the south or what?)

[wxman22]

Looks like finally a CHANGE in the GFS???!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[KatDaddy]

There will be no ice/sleet/snow for SE TX this time around. Time to face the facts.

[wxman22]

There will be no ice/sleet/snow for SE TX this time around. Time to face the facts.

I did'nt mean that southeast texas would get anything I meant that there is a change in the GFS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like finally a CHANGE in the GFS???!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

yeah, I noticed that too. The GFS certainly looks more promising now than it did in the 0z run.

[jasons2k]

....Maybe for Dallas not Houston

[gboudx]

Since this run is different from the past runs that were consistent in the low placement, why not discount it for now and wait for later runs to show consistency?

[Extremeweatherguy]

There will be no ice/sleet/snow for SE TX this time around. Time to face the facts.

I think that may be a pretty bold statement. Not that I think we will, but at 3 days out with a tricky low to forecast, and a still questionable amount of cold air there is a pretty decent chance that someone in SE Texas sees wintry precipitation. SE Texas is a pretty large area.

Remember a few weeks back when it sleeted in Victoria and some of the southern counties? No one expected that either until the day of (and for the most part AFTER it already was happening). Just goes to show that anything can happen.

We will know a lot more once the low forms, the front moves in, and the precip. develops. Once that happens then we will have a much better idea of how cold it will be and how much moisture there will be to work with. Until then, I don't expect any forecast to be exact. All it takes are a few minor changes in the atmosphere to make major changes to the forecast.

[vbhoutex]

There will be no ice/sleet/snow for SE TX this time around. Time to face the facts.

I think that may be a pretty bold statement. Not that I think we will, but at 3 days out with a tricky low to forecast, and a still questionable amount of cold air there is a pretty decent chance that someone in SE Texas sees wintry precipitation. SE Texas is a pretty large area.

Remember a few weeks back when it sleeted in Victoria and some of the southern counties? No one expected that either until the day of (and for the most part AFTER it already was happening). Just goes to show that anything can happen.

We will know a lot more once the low forms, the front moves in, and the precip. develops. Once that happens then we will have a much better idea of how cold it will be and how much moisture there will be to work with. Until then, I don't expect any forecast to be exact. All it takes are a few minor changes in the atmosphere to make major changes to the forecast.

Yes it is a bold statement, but unless things change dramatically, it will hold too. Those in the Hill country up through Waco and Westward will more than likely see some white stuff for Christmas(enough to say they had a White Christmas) whereas those in SE TX(all of it) may be able to say I think I saw a sleet pellet or maybe that was a lone stray snowflake. IE, in SE TX it is going to be COLD, WET AND MISERABLE weatherwise, but I am certainly not holding my breath waiting for snow. NEVER SAY NEVER, but a possible maybe is as close as I will go for now. Admittedly, it is close to the same set up as 2004, and the models were all over the place then, but the big difference this year is no strong intrusion of Arctic air. I am happy it will be cold for Christmas, but like many others I would love to see the white stuff!!

[jasons2k]

(deleted)

[Kennethb]

Snow and wintry precip is harder to forecast and model, especially in the south. And what the models are trying figure out is the strength and timing of the upper level disturbance that follows the surface low. What is likely is that someone in the south will see some wintry precip, its just a factor of timing. I think someone and forecasters will be surprised this weekend and next week.

[jasons2k]

There will be no ice/sleet/snow for SE TX this time around. Time to face the facts.

I think that may be a pretty bold statement. Not that I think we will, but at 3 days out with a tricky low to forecast, and a still questionable amount of cold air there is a pretty decent chance that someone in SE Texas sees wintry precipitation. SE Texas is a pretty large area.

Remember a few weeks back when it sleeted in Victoria and some of the southern counties? No one expected that either until the day of (and for the most part AFTER it already was happening). Just goes to show that anything can happen.

We will know a lot more once the low forms, the front moves in, and the precip. develops. Once that happens then we will have a much better idea of how cold it will be and how much moisture there will be to work with. Until then, I don't expect any forecast to be exact. All it takes are a few minor changes in the atmosphere to make major changes to the forecast.

I disagree. There is not even a "decent" chance someone in SE Texas will get wintry precip. out of this system.

If you want to believe Lucy go ahead. Just make sure you put a pillow down to land on first.

[vbhoutex]

There will be no ice/sleet/snow for SE TX this time around. Time to face the facts.

I think that may be a pretty bold statement. Not that I think we will, but at 3 days out with a tricky low to forecast, and a still questionable amount of cold air there is a pretty decent chance that someone in SE Texas sees wintry precipitation. SE Texas is a pretty large area.

Remember a few weeks back when it sleeted in Victoria and some of the southern counties? No one expected that either until the day of (and for the most part AFTER it already was happening). Just goes to show that anything can happen.

We will know a lot more once the low forms, the front moves in, and the precip. develops. Once that happens then we will have a much better idea of how cold it will be and how much moisture there will be to work with. Until then, I don't expect any forecast to be exact. All it takes are a few minor changes in the atmosphere to make major changes to the forecast.

I disagree. There is not even a "decent" chance someone in SE Texas will get wintry precip. out of this system.

If you want to believe Lucy go ahead. Just make sure you put a pillow down to land on first.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'd have to agree with Jason here. The mid-level synoptics clearly do not support any significant frozen precipitation over southeastern portions of Texas. Even inland, the possibilities are fairly low except for some further interior locales.

[Portastorm]

Still looks like me, Kelarie, and doubleD though are still in the game. Check out Jeff Lindner's forecast issued in the last 30 minutes ...

***


Significant storm system to affect TX over the holiday weekend.

First in a series of cold fronts has pushed off the coast this morning taking with it the balmy conditions of the past week. 100kt jet streak over Mexico into EC TX is providing isentropic lift over the shallow cold dome and with increasing lift this afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop. Per radar trends activity is already increasing to our SW with a fairly nasty looking cell over CO County.

Secondary cold front over the panhandle this morning will push through the area late tonight clearing the region for the next 24 hours. GFS and shorter term ETA models are at odds as to when to onset the next event of adverse weather.

Weekend into Next Week:

Vigorous piece of energy carves out a deep upper level trough over TX and northern Mexico Saturday. Strong jet dynamics will spill out of northern Mexico and across TX Saturday evening with upper forcing firing off a rapidly deepening surface low off the TX coast. Impressive insentropic upglide should quickly saturated the air column allowing widespread rains to develop. Track of the surface low is offshore leading to cold NNE winds howling Saturday night and Sunday with temps falling into the 30's and 40's and holding. Moderate to heavy rains can be expected Saturday night and Sunday.

Main upper level system moves across the state late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Model forecast profiles have warmed over the last 24 hours suggesting very little chance of frozen precip. in SE TX, however the track of the mid level cold pocket is very far south (through SC TX) and rain may change to or mix with snow over SC and C TX late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Exact temp. profiles and track of the upper level low will determine this potential, however there remains the threat of accumulating snows from N of San Antonio to near Austin to Waco and westward Christmas Eve morning.

A Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for portions of C TX, the Hill Country, and Edwards Plateau region sometime Friday or Saturday. Persons with travel plans to central TX should be aware of the threat of winter precip. and hazardous driving conditions.

Powerful secondary vort rotates through TX on Christmas Day, however low level air mass should be bone dry by this period with mid level based precip. evaporating before reaching the ground. Temps. will run well below normal from Saturday through Christmas Day due to cold air advection, clouds, and rain...it will feel like winter!

****

(Portastorm is lacing up his shoes and is about to tell Lucy that he wants another shot with that football!)

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think someone within this area will see some form of wintry precip. before it is over:

http://www.optimist.org/Graphics/Maps/SE_Texas.jpg

That is just too big of an area to say that nothing will happen. Thus the reason I feel there is a decent chance that someone sees sleet/snow in SE Texas.

However, I am not expecting anything significant out of this system such as accumulations at this time.

Like I said before...we should know much more after the systems actually take shape over the area and we have a better idea of the exact conditions. Just because a model is saying the upper-levels will not be favorable now, doesn't mean it will still be saying that 2-3 days from now.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 AM CST THU DEC 21 2006

.UPDATE...
...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS WEEKEND SYSTEM AND
CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT. WILL AWAIT THE NEW ECMWF/UKMET MODELS
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES...AS 12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT.

[double D]

Since this run is different from the past runs that were consistent in the low placement, why not discount it for now and wait for later runs to show consistency?

If I remember correctly, isn't this when the gfs started shifting this weeks upper low north with about 3 days to go? I wonder if it's starting the trend again?

[jasons2k]

I think someone within this area will see some form of wintry precip. before it is over:

http://www.optimist.org/Graphics/Maps/SE_Texas.jpg

That is just too big of an area to say that nothing will happen. Thus the reason I feel there is a decent chance that someone sees sleet/snow in SE Texas.

However, I am not expecting anything significant out of this system such as accumulations at this time.

Like I said before...we should know much more after the systems actually take shape over the area and we have a better idea of the exact conditions. Just because a model is saying the upper-levels will not be favorable now, doesn't mean it will still be saying that 2-3 days from now.

I think the map you found is a bit too generous. Buffalo, etc. are not considered SE Texas:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Texas

A good map of North Texas:

http://images.ibsys.com/2002/0927/1691286.jpg