Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Snowman67]

Just for fun, here's a meteogram for Houston (IAH) from the 12Z run compared to the 6Z run. See if you can spot any difference.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZGFSDec12.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/6ZGFSDec12.JPG

What does your cold monger co-worker think at this point?

[Snowman67]

Just for fun, here's a meteogram for Houston (IAH) from the 12Z run compared to the 6Z run. See if you can spot any difference.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZGFSDec12.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/6ZGFSDec12.JPG

What does your cold monger co-worker think at this point?

[South Texas Storms]

Just for fun, here's a meteogram for Houston (IAH) from the 12Z run compared to the 6Z run. See if you can spot any difference.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZGFSDec12.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/6ZGFSDec12.JPG

What does your cold monger co-worker think at this point?

He's all aboard the cold train, as am I, his other coworker.

[Ntxw]

Surface snow maps and whatnot notwithstanding, doesn't look drastically different early on 18z GFS run. Think the flaws in runs prior of models trying to jam the systems and cold eastward into the blocks have halted at the moment.

[Iceresistance]

1068 mb HP in NW Canada in under 1 week!?
(18z GFS)

[Ntxw]

1068 mb HP in NW Canada in under 1 week!?
(18z GFS)

It's faster than the 12z GFS with initial cold.

[Iceresistance]

1068 mb HP in NW Canada in under 1 week!?
(18z GFS)

It's faster than the 12z GFS with initial cold.

I get snowed on December 19th-20th. The 18z GFS is going to be even crazier than the already insane 12z GFS.

[BigB0882]

That one Euro map shows a stout SE Ridge. Does the cold make it further south and east or is it stopped up?

[Brent]

Snowstorm here on the GFS Monday. We didn't even get much last run

Yeah this run is headed for big things again

[Iceresistance]

That one Euro map shows a stout SE Ridge. Does the cold make it further south and east or is it stopped up?

The SW Ridge denys any cold air from coming here, the SE Ridge may slow it down to prevent it from reaching the Coastal regions and the Southeast.

[Ntxw]

Snowstorm here on the GFS Monday. We didn't even get much last run

Yeah this run is headed for big things again

Compared to other runs and other models, this GFS run is more impressed with the leading cold wave. Doesn't send it east as quick. The motherlode is still up in the white north.

[Iceresistance]

Snowstorm here on the GFS Monday. We didn't even get much last run

Yeah this run is headed for big things again

Compared to other runs and other models, this GFS run is more impressed with the leading cold wave. Doesn't send it east as quick. The motherlode is still up in the white north.

Yep, with a monstrous 1070+ mb HP over the Arctic Ocean.

1065 mb might be the new minimum for the strength of the Arctic HPs for this outbreak unless something crazy happens.

[Ntxw]

Snowstorm here on the GFS Monday. We didn't even get much last run

Yeah this run is headed for big things again

Compared to other runs and other models, this GFS run is more impressed with the leading cold wave. Doesn't send it east as quick. The motherlode is still up in the white north.

Yep, with a monstrous 1070+ mb HP over the Arctic Ocean.

1065 mb might be the new minimum for the strength of the Arctic HPs for this outbreak unless something crazy happens.

Oh yes, what's a few decades between 1065hps? We get them every few hours now .

[bubba hotep]

If the image below were to verify for system placement, then you can almost bet on surface teams being colder than modeled. This would push the freezing rain threat farther south.

[Iceresistance]

Compared to other runs and other models, this GFS run is more impressed with the leading cold wave. Doesn't send it east as quick. The motherlode is still up in the white north.

Yep, with a monstrous 1070+ mb HP over the Arctic Ocean.

1065 mb might be the new minimum for the strength of the Arctic HPs for this outbreak unless something crazy happens.

Oh yes, what's a few decades between 1065hps? We get them every few hours now .

Snow Miser has the big plan for Christmas week with these monstrous Arctic HPs.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like 18z wants to cancel the 12z's 1899 party . Still cold but there's no 1060mb HP dropping into Montana this run around 200hrs...still watching.

Edit: nevermind, 1064mb in southern BC at 222hrs, party on

[txtwister78]

That one Euro map shows a stout SE Ridge. Does the cold make it further south and east or is it stopped up?

The SW Ridge denys any cold air from coming here, the SE Ridge may slow it down to prevent it from reaching the Coastal regions and the Southeast.

The cold will "push" but it doesn't necessarily "deny" cold air from eventually making it into that area. The strength of the arctic airmass we're talking about here is different and eventually the cold will win out and overwhelm the pattern.

[Ralph's Weather]

If the image below were to verify for system placement, then you can almost bet on surface teams being colder than modeled. This would push the freezing rain threat farther south.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022121218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.png

We get chilly late this week and maybe some light rain or sleet this weekend but that early week system next week is what will really kick this event into high gear. That could well lay down a solid blanket of snow across the Southern Plains. The rest of the week before Christmas will be very cold.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS ridge off the west coast is oriented different so no big storm for TX/LA this run, compared to the 12z.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS ridge off the west coast is oriented different so no big storm for TX/LA this run, compared to the 12z.

The GFS is still likely in the dust after December 19th for storm systems and ridges.