Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[wxman57]

12Z GFS just has a little snow for the northern TX Panhandle through the OK Handle and into eastern KS next Tuesday as the low lifts out to the NE. No indication of any significant cold in western Canada through 16 days.

[ndale]

And the 12z did take away the snow cover, oh well, at least I can be grateful for all the rain we are getting.

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting tweet this morning from JB. The maps do look similar.

https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/s ... 16/photo/1

January 1985 featured several snowfall events in Austin. I remember 'em well!

Oh yeah! I lived in San Antonio in 1985. They had a record 13.5 inches of snow over a few days from late on January 11th ending January 13th. Shut the city down! So peaceful and beautiful! That snow event is really how my interest in weather started.

I came across some NOAA records on snow amounts greater than a trace in Austin and San Antonio.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/snowfalltable.pdf

[ndale]

My dad lived on the south side of San Antonio at that time, the lumber yard accross the street from his house had a roof collapse on one of their sheds from the weight of the snow.

Thanks for posting the snowfalls for Austin, very interesting, I see there was a white Christmas in 1926, I'd say we're overdue for another one.


Edited 1 time

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Well, for those of us in northern Dallas county, today's storm track has been so cruel. Substantial beneficial rains continue to skirt us to the north. Surely eventually the overall line will move eastward enough to put us under cover.

[Ntxw]

Well, for those of us in northern Dallas county, today's storm track has been so cruel. Substantial beneficial rains continue to skirt us to the north. Surely eventually the overall line will move eastward enough to put us under cover.

No worries, the radar will continue to fill in! Heaviest rain will come in the evening hours especially metroplex proper. All the stuff now is just early stages. 49 degrees and a cold rain, beautiful weather . I'll take this over 110 and relentless sunshine any day.

[Tireman4]

No worries, the radar will continue to fill in! Heaviest rain will come in the evening hours especially metroplex proper. All the stuff now is just early stages. 49 degrees and a cold rain, beautiful weather . I'll take this over 110 and relentless sunshine any day.

Can we have some please?...In Houston...




edited by vbhoutex to fix quote

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah tonight looks like a long night for the DFW. Im heading there now from Houston for High School playoff games tomorrow. At least its not snowing like last trip up there!

[CaptinCrunch]

More rain for next week and Christmas weekend, La Nina went all El Nino on us...lol


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 PM CST THU DEC 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN CENTERED BENEATH A ZONE OF
OF GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW COOL WET
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE STRONGEST LIFT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE
THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCLUDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6 DEG C/KM
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY. THE OVERALL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO REMAIN LOW. NICE DECEMBER RAINFALL TOTALS
HAVE OCCURRED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE WITH PWS REMAINING BELOW AN INCH AND A QUARTER...BUT
SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS MAY STILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAIN OVERNIGHT WHERE TRAINING CELLS DECIDE TO MATERIALIZE.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA WILL DAMPEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARDS
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
50S.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 7
TO 10 DAYS. LONGWAVE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND A SERIES OF CUT-
OFF UPPER LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST COAST
BEFORE ADVANCING EAST TOWARDS TEXAS. THE NEXT OF THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN RETURN
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORKWEEK...FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

[somethingfunny]

Well, for those of us in northern Dallas county, today's storm track has been so cruel. Substantial beneficial rains continue to skirt us to the north. Surely eventually the overall line will move eastward enough to put us under cover.

I had enough of the rainfall last night, trying to do my job delivering food across Mesquite and finding every road had portions covered in half a foot of water. The soil's saturated from all our slow soaking drizzles, but we haven't had much heavy rain for two weeks to clear all the debris through the storm drains. Result? Rapid street flooding.

[Night on the Sun]

Why does a warming of the stratosphere often come before a major arctic outbreak? Does all of the cold arctic air build up behind the warm air then break through and dive south? Thanks.

[HockeyTx82]

Why does a warming of the stratosphere often come before a major arctic outbreak? Does all of the cold arctic air build up behind the warm air then break through and dive south? Thanks.

I did a Google search and found some iteresting reads.

Here is one of them. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_19 ... c_outbreak

Here is the other. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_str ... ic_warming

Perhaps a Pro Met or someone with a better understanding can give us the short version that we can understand.

Hope this helps otherwise.

[orangeblood]

Why does a warming of the stratosphere often come before a major arctic outbreak? Does all of the cold arctic air build up behind the warm air then break through and dive south? Thanks.

From my understanding as the Stratosphere warms it expands and thus compresses the column of air beneath it, the troposphere. When air in the troposphere compresses, it cools/builds and begins to spread towards the middle latitudes - normally gravitating towards the central parts of the northern hemisphere's continents. To get a sustained arctic outbreak in the US, you need blocking to form over Greenland/Northern Atlantic to prevent the cold air from escaping out across the Atlantic.

A few things I think are still in question: 1) is the stratospheric warming going to materialize - its only forecasted by some computer models 2) if it does, where does the arctic air end up - Does it stay on the other side of the pole in Asia or Does it migrate over to North America? 3) if it makes it over to North America, does it funnel straight down into the plains or get pushed towards the east or west coast? These are all questions that appear way too early to answer

[Rgv20]

Looks like the Panhandle has a pretty good shot of snow on Monday...question is how much??


Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
344 PM CST THU DEC 15 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-161000-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
344 PM CST THU DEC 15 2011

...WINTER TO MAKE A RETURN...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
GATHER STRENGTH BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
FAR WEST TEXAS MONDAY AND INTO OKLAHOMA TUESDAY.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT...SO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY EVENING WITH SNOW CONTINUING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS VERY
UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING AT
LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS BY VISITING OUR
WEBSITE AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA...LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
FOLLOWING NWS AMARILLO ON FACEBOOK...OR THROUGH YOUR PREFERRED MEDIA
OUTLET.

$$

CLK

[Portastorm]

I don't want to get any hopes up but both the 0z GFS and 0z Euro are rather curious in sending a healthy cold front (the 0-degree isotherm was through two-thirds of the state) through most of Texas right before Christmas as well as lag some upper-level energy just to our southwest. Yesterday 0z GFS showed a more robust but similar scenario and then the 12z run removed it entirely.

Might be something to watch.

[ndale]

I don't want to get any hopes up but both the 0z GFS and 0z Euro are rather curious in sending a healthy cold front (the 0-degree isotherm was through two-thirds of the state) through most of Texas right before Christmas as well as lag some upper-level energy just to our southwest. Yesterday 0z GFS showed a more robust but similar scenario and then the 12z run removed it entirely.

Might be something to watch.

Portastorm, do you think we could actually have some cold by then, I noticied Wxman57 said he did not see any real cold in Canada for about 16 days?

[wxman57]

Euro has temps 15-30 deg above normal across the Northern Plains and western/central Canada next week. Hard to get snow very far south with those temps. Temps across the central Rockies are forecast to be 5-20 deg below normal next week. Possible for some snow in the TX Panhandle/northern OK.

[Portastorm]

ndale, my rudimentary understanding of computer models suggested to me this morning, when I saw those runs, that the pattern had some potential to get interesting. I'm far from saying snow or ice would occur. I'll include the runs below to show you what I was looking at.

Also, I've been around the block enough to learn that my fellow moderator and colleague Wxman57 has forgotten more about meteorology than I'll probably ever know. So, when in doubt, trust his word.

0z GFS run at 216 hours, 500mb level:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

0z Euro run at 216 hours, 500mb level:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ndale]

Euro has temps 15-30 deg above normal across the Northern Plains and western/central Canada next week. Hard to get snow very far south with those temps. Temps across the central Rockies are forecast to be 5-20 deg below normal next week. Possible for some snow in the TX Panhandle/northern OK.

Ok, thanks guys, I just wondered why the models or at least the gfs, keeps trying to show something in our area when there is no source for really cold air. The rain part I could accept more easily.

[orangeblood]

Euro has temps 15-30 deg above normal across the Northern Plains and western/central Canada next week. Hard to get snow very far south with those temps. Temps across the central Rockies are forecast to be 5-20 deg below normal next week. Possible for some snow in the TX Panhandle/northern OK.

Ok, thanks guys, I just wondered why the models or at least the gfs, keeps trying to show something in our area when there is no source for really cold air. The rain part I could accept more easily.

I don't believe you necessarily need below normal temps in Canada to get cold enough air for snow deep into Texas this time of year. The high pressure seems to originate over Montana, slide south and build as it anchors itself over Colorado next weekend...both the Euro and GFS are showing this. The 12Z GFS now shows quite a winter storm over Texas on Christmas day. I realize it's over a week out but the GFS operational and Euro nailed this last system sitting over the southwest now from almost 10 days out, while the ensembles showed a very different scenario. (GFS operational has had a pretty good track record of late)

This scenario seems plausible considering the very low sun angle/long nights this time of year, snow cover building across the plains, and the orientation of the trough forecast across the southwest late next week...some 500 mb heights are forecast to be over 3 standard deviations below normal!!! The pieces are on the playing field, now lets see if they can all come together.

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