Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Track the front...it is moving....


http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Getting worried boys???

I would be......I told my daughter how you fellows wished this cold upon us.

Now she's cold

and she too has fans and has this to play with:
"Bone Cold out there Windchill Warnings for Lethbridge in Southern Alberta windchills near -45 this am, We also have Windchill Warnings in Saskatchewan includes Saskatoon, Swift Current and Coronach"

and when she gets cold she gets nasty
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=618167174885620

So in the words of Julie Roberts

Big Mistake….BIG….HUGE!!

Hope you found your winter coats!!!

[ndale]

My point forecast calls for temp dropping to 42 by 5pm. It has been holding steady at 39 for a couple of hours, temps may have been underestimated as well or should I say overestimated.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the meteograms, wxman57. I think we're getting to the point where we should be watching radar and examining the short-term models (HRRR, RAP, SREF) ... I know what the NAM is showing but I can already tell you that it didn't show the expanse of precip in West Texas that we're seeing this morning.

[rainman]

Ice Storm warning is only when freezing rain is expected. Because there is sleet also expected it is a winter storm warning for freezing rain and sleet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That precip shield is massive. Woah. Headed to Atx around 12, im sure the temp will be plummetting in the car on the way there. Already 63F here in SL. Its great to feel nice fresh Siberian air again. #Dork

[Ellsey]

Ice Storm warning is only when freezing rain is expected. Because there is sleet also expected it is a winter storm warning for freezing rain and sleet.

Ah, ok. Thanks.

[sooner101]

It's already down to 34 in carrollton. We weren't supposed to drop to freezing until later tonight. I feel like it will be around 1 or 2..

[Texas Snowman]

Ice storm preparation tips I found from Georgia Power:

If you lose electric service, the following safety tips can help you stay safe:

Non-electric, unvented space heaters can be a hazard. Use them only in well-ventilated areas.

Cook with a camp stove, fireplace or can of Sterno (cooking fuel). Never use charcoal or other fuels in unventilated areas.

If you use an electric generator, plug appliances directly into it. Never plug a generator directly into your home's electrical wiring.

Disconnect or turn off appliances you were using when the power went off. Leave one light on to tell you when service is restored.

Avoid opening refrigerators or freezers. Food will stay frozen in a fully loaded freezer for 36 to 48 hours if the door is closed. In a half-full freezer, food will keep 24 hours.

Be Prepared

Good preparation makes winter storms more bearable. Follow a storm's progress by monitoring a weather radio. Prepare for a possible power outage. Make sure you:

Stock up on non-perishable foods, heating fuel and medications.

Fill your bathtub and spare containers with water in case your electric water pump or the local water system goes out.

Have a flashlight, a battery-powered radio and fresh batteries handy.

Prepare older family members, friends or neighbors who live alone for the weather.

[downsouthman1]

The main message we all should be getting right now is that CLEARLY the models are not grasping this situation well! The expansive precip shield in west Texas was not predicted to the degree it is showing up now. All of us "downstream" should keep that in mind as we progress through this event.

I wonder about the southern extent of this precip shield as it treks east. Also, will the freezing line move south today or wait until tonight? What impact will the precip have on temps? These are rhetorical questions. The models are no longer necessary. Time to start looking at reports.

[orangeblood]

Current Radar returns somewhat reflect what the European Model was showing last night. Shortwave energy moving out in pieces rather than bundled as it moves along the Arctic Boundary. I don't think it's any worse QPF wise but just a quicker onset of Precip. Now, the saving grace might be that some of the precip won't freeze on contact as Temps are still above freezing

[iorange55]

Update from DFW NWS

UPDATE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT WILL
NEGATE THE EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR CURRENT READINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAY IN FACT DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN A FEW
SPOTS. RADAR INDICATES A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE BOWIE AND JACKSBORO AREAS. MUCH OF THIS MAY NOT
BE ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WE EXPECT THIS AREA TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. THE 18Z / NOON LOCAL ONSET OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS FARTHER EAST...INCLUDING
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW FREEZING IN THE REST OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA AS
PRECIPITATION INCREASES LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 6
PM / 00Z START TIME OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE METROPLEX
AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES...EVEN THOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 9 PM - 12 AM TIME FRAME. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF ICE IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA...AND ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

[downsouthman1]

Update from DFW NWS

UPDATE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT WILL
NEGATE THE EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR CURRENT READINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAY IN FACT DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN A FEW
SPOTS. RADAR INDICATES A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE BOWIE AND JACKSBORO AREAS. MUCH OF THIS MAY NOT
BE ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...BUT WE EXPECT THIS AREA TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. THE 18Z / NOON LOCAL ONSET OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS FARTHER EAST...INCLUDING
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW FREEZING IN THE REST OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA AS
PRECIPITATION INCREASES LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 6
PM / 00Z START TIME OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE METROPLEX
AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES...EVEN THOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 9 PM - 12 AM TIME FRAME. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKELY THAT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF ICE IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA...AND ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

I like how they did not even mention the WWA area or CTX at all.

[Snowman67]

:uarrow:

Thanks for the meteograms, wxman57. I think we're getting to the point where we should be watching radar and examining the short-term models (HRRR, RAP, SREF) ... I know what the NAM is showing but I can already tell you that it didn't show the expanse of precip in West Texas that we're seeing this morning.

I know what you mean Porta. I like using metrograms, but have been burned several times when it comes to shallow cold air masses. Even when relying on them 24-48 hrs out. At this point I'm relying on watching upstream temps and the radar.

[ndale]

Update from EWX


HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO REDUCED POPS FOR TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WAS EXITING SOUTHERN ZONES AS OF WRITING WITH
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALLING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN ZONES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIRMASS FROM SFC TO H9 IS WORKING
SOUTH AND SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. UPDATED
PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSLubbock: Roads hazardous in Terry County. At least 1/4" ice across the southern and eastern sections of the county. Radar showing moderate rain.

[wxman57]

New meteograms off 12Z GFS. For Dallas-Ft. Worth, all I can say is HOLY COW! It looks nasty. For Austin, a little freezing rain but nothing remotely close to Dallas. Nothing but light cold rain in Houston.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Ice storm preparation tips I found from Georgia Power:

If you lose electric service, the following safety tips can help you stay safe:

Non-electric, unvented space heaters can be a hazard. Use them only in well-ventilated areas.

Cook with a camp stove, fireplace or can of Sterno (cooking fuel). Never use charcoal or other fuels in unventilated areas.

If you use an electric generator, plug appliances directly into it. Never plug a generator directly into your home's electrical wiring.

Disconnect or turn off appliances you were using when the power went off. Leave one light on to tell you when service is restored.

Avoid opening refrigerators or freezers. Food will stay frozen in a fully loaded freezer for 36 to 48 hours if the door is closed. In a half-full freezer, food will keep 24 hours.

Be Prepared

Good preparation makes winter storms more bearable. Follow a storm's progress by monitoring a weather radio. Prepare for a possible power outage. Make sure you:

Stock up on non-perishable foods, heating fuel and medications.

Fill your bathtub and spare containers with water in case your electric water pump or the local water system goes out.

Have a flashlight, a battery-powered radio and fresh batteries handy.

Prepare older family members, friends or neighbors who live alone for the weather.

Below is courtesy of Scoutmasters.org...some really good advice included in it.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =1&theater

And getting more cold from here probably would be a good idea...snow would be so much kinder!

[ndale]

If I am reading that last meteogram right it looks like almost .10 for possible ice, that would be enough to drive this city crazy (pun intended for driving on ice). Correct me if I am wrong Portastorm or someone else.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Some light returns are beginning to show up on the radar across Dallas-Fort Worth. Doubt any of it is reaching the ground at this point, but it'll be interesting to see how these returns evolve.

[Portastorm]

If I am reading that last meteogram right it looks like almost .10 for possible ice, that would be enough to drive this city crazy (pun intended for driving on ice). Correct me if I am wrong Portastorm or someone else.

That amount would be enough to create chaos here in Austin. But then again, it doesn't take much. I remember having a freezing drizzle event here which laid down less than 0.10 but the "black ice" effect enabled numerous crashes on I-35, including some crazy pileup of 20-30 vehicles downtown. In this case at least it may occur on a weekend. We shall see.