Texas Winter 2015-2016

[SouthernMet]

Tornado Warning for Dallas County.

[hriverajr]

Cold front now appears to be picking up speed... like wxman57 said, the winds are howling north of it.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Really strong cold winds here. When the front came through earlier it dropped the temps from low to mid 70s to 45 in minutes it seemed like.

[Portastorm]

Cold front now appears to be picking up speed... like wxman57 said, the winds are howling north of it.

Based on the latest HRRR runs, I wouldn't be surprised if the severe threat for tomorrow morning is negated here in SC Texas due to the front outrunning the upper level support and undercutting the airmass at the surface. We'd see some showery weather with gusty winds but that would be it. I'll be curious about short term model trends as the evening progresses.

[Tireman4]

I agree Porta..for us too in Houston...tornado sirens going off in Dallas..

[Longhornmaniac8]

Cold front now appears to be picking up speed... like wxman57 said, the winds are howling north of it.

Based on the latest HRRR runs, I wouldn't be surprised if the severe threat for tomorrow morning is negated here in SC Texas due to the front outrunning the upper level support and undercutting the airmass at the surface. We'd see some showery weather with gusty winds but that would be it. I'll be curious about short term model trends as the evening progresses.

Porta, thoughts on any wintry fun here tomorrow night/Monday morning?

[Portastorm]

Highly unlikely at this point. I reserve the right to change if things look different tomorrow but as of now, it'll be to our north/northwest. Sorry man. You know I'd be the first to be blowing the horn if I thought we had a decent chance.

[Longhornmaniac8]

:uarrow:

Highly unlikely at this point. I reserve the right to change if things look different tomorrow but as of now, it'll be to our north/northwest. Sorry man. You know I'd be the first to be blowing the horn if I thought we had a decent chance.

Fair enough. It seemed fairly close as it was, and then the models kept trending south with the low, faster with the front, south with the coastal low, etc, so I started getting my hopes up a bit.

At this point, what would we need to see for there to be a material chance?

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Highly unlikely at this point. I reserve the right to change if things look different tomorrow but as of now, it'll be to our north/northwest. Sorry man. You know I'd be the first to be blowing the horn if I thought we had a decent chance.

Fair enough. It seemed fairly close as it was, and then the models kept trending south with the low, faster with the front, south with the coastal low, etc, so I started getting my hopes up a bit.

At this point, what would we need to see for there to be a material chance?

Actually the biggest problem I see is us getting dry slotted after frontal passage. If somehow that doesn't happen we'd have a shot, I think, at a flurry or two. Airmass will be cold enough. Need the moisture.

[hriverajr]

Cold front now appears to be picking up speed... like wxman57 said, the winds are howling north of it.

Based on the latest HRRR runs, I wouldn't be surprised if the severe threat for tomorrow morning is negated here in SC Texas due to the front outrunning the upper level support and undercutting the airmass at the surface. We'd see some showery weather with gusty winds but that would be it. I'll be curious about short term model trends as the evening progresses.

Winds south of the front have really slackened as well, now only about 10 kts or so from the south and southeast. ... not much resistance there.. the front only going to pick up more speed imo. You might be very well be right on the severe threat.

Front through SJT

[Tireman4]

Winds have slackended here as well..15. Gust to 25...

[TheProfessor]

is the trough still digging?

[srainhoutx]

Winds have slackended here as well..15. Gust to 25...

Not to the West of you. Had a gust to 35 here 10 minutes ago...

[Portastorm]

is the trough still digging?

Seems like it per a WV image loop I just looked at ... so ... yes.

[Tireman4]

Ahh...

[SouthernMet]

Another tornado warned, impressive cell with strong rotation moving into Dallas county, with a history of producing tornadoes.

Large cone, on the ground, with power flashes reported southwest of Red Oak.

[Portastorm]

Yeah that is one near DeSoto. Spotters confirming large tornado on ground. Hope everyone up there is taking cover.

[SouthernMet]

59 mph wind recorded in Lawton, OK...

[Texas Snowman]

606pm- Tornado will likely move into portions of southern Dallas Co. near Desoto and Lancaster. #dfwwx

[Ntxw]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
606 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

TXC113-139-270045-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0146.000000T0000Z-151227T0045Z/
ELLIS TX-DALLAS TX-
606 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ELLIS AND CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTIES...

AT 605 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER OVILLA...OR NEAR GLENN HEIGHTS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO
HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING A WEDGE TORNADO
MOVING DIRECTLY AT OVILLA AND GLENN HEIGHTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!