Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Golf7270]

A series of cutters towards the Great Lakes, a ridiculously stale Pacific with that ridge just cycling over and over as the MJO is tangled up with the background state. Need something to shake things up. However, pretty epic winter weather stretch for WCAN and the Mountain West.

Bubba, do you think we will break out of this pattern this winter at all or is it going to be real difficult?

[AustinTXResident]

18z GFS is setting up something really big, just like what happened this past February

What's the evidence of being like February 2021?

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is setting up something really big, just like what happened this past February

What's the evidence of being like February 2021?

I remembered the Cold Wave setting up in Western Canada that was shown for the February 2021 Cold Wave, it's showing up in the same general area on where it will eventually come here, but this time, it falls apart before it gets here, for now.

[NDG]

Ensembles still showing the La Nina ridge across the south central and SE US not going away any time soon, fluctuating back and forth between FL and TX.
You want cold air head to Seattle where the GFS is still persistent in them being below freezing for at least 7 days.

[Golf7270]

Ensembles still showing the La Nina ridge across the south central and SE US not going away any time soon, fluctuating back and forth between FL and TX.
You want cold air head to Seattle where the GFS is still persistent in them being below freezing for at least 7 days.

https://i.imgur.com/pCWT0pY.gif
https://i.imgur.com/jcfo4ZZ.gif

In all seriousness, is there anything that can shake it up so we aren't stuck all winter?

[Iceresistance]

Ensembles still showing the La Nina ridge across the south central and SE US not going away any time soon, fluctuating back and forth between FL and TX.
You want cold air head to Seattle where the GFS is still persistent in them being below freezing for at least 7 days.

https://i.imgur.com/pCWT0pY.gif
https://i.imgur.com/jcfo4ZZ.gif

In all seriousness, is there anything that can shake it up so we aren't stuck all winter?

The PNA, it's strongly Negative right now, but if it can go towards Positive, then that SE/La Nina Ridge can go away.

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS has a Stronger Trough, with a Weaker High Pressure since it has less influence on the MSLP.

[Cpv17]

Ensembles still showing the La Nina ridge across the south central and SE US not going away any time soon, fluctuating back and forth between FL and TX.
You want cold air head to Seattle where the GFS is still persistent in them being below freezing for at least 7 days.

https://i.imgur.com/pCWT0pY.gif
https://i.imgur.com/jcfo4ZZ.gif

In all seriousness, is there anything that can shake it up so we aren't stuck all winter?

This! I’m wondering the same thing.

[TropicalTundra]

Ensembles still showing the La Nina ridge across the south central and SE US not going away any time soon, fluctuating back and forth between FL and TX.
You want cold air head to Seattle where the GFS is still persistent in them being below freezing for at least 7 days.

https://i.imgur.com/pCWT0pY.gif
https://i.imgur.com/jcfo4ZZ.gif

In all seriousness, is there anything that can shake it up so we aren't stuck all winter?

This! I’m wondering the same thing.

Nope, nothing will happen, it’ll be mid-80s all the way through March, no snow and no arctic air. Perfect beach weather!

[Brent]

In all seriousness, is there anything that can shake it up so we aren't stuck all winter?

This! I’m wondering the same thing.

Nope, nothing will happen, it’ll be mid-80s all the way through March, no snow and no arctic air. Perfect beach weather!

Right? The year with no winter. DFW will not go below 32 again

[harp]

This! I’m wondering the same thing.

Nope, nothing will happen, it’ll be mid-80s all the way through March, no snow and no arctic air. Perfect beach weather!

Right? The year with no winter

Like come on does anyone really believe that

Nothing has indicated it’s going to change.

[Brent]

Nope, nothing will happen, it’ll be mid-80s all the way through March, no snow and no arctic air. Perfect beach weather!

Right? The year with no winter

Like come on does anyone really believe that

Nothing has indicated it’s going to change.

I took out that comment but seriously the models only run til early January... And why are they more believable showing heat than the colder runs the other day?

Even the 0z GFS has some fronts it's not like it's pushing 90 the whole run

Come on guys the pattern isnt going to last all winter

[harp]

Right? The year with no winter

Like come on does anyone really believe that

Nothing has indicated it’s going to change.

I took out that comment but seriously the models only run til early January... And why are they more believable showing heat than the colder runs the other day?

Even the 0z GFS has some fronts it's not like it's pushing 90 the whole run

Come on guys the pattern isnt going to last all winter

Oh, I agree. It’s seems almost meteorlogically impossible to stay this way all winter.

[cheezyWXguy]

Right? The year with no winter

Like come on does anyone really believe that

Nothing has indicated it’s going to change.

I took out that comment but seriously the models only run til early January... And why are they more believable showing heat than the colder runs the other day?

Even the 0z GFS has some fronts it's not like it's pushing 90 the whole run

Come on guys the pattern isnt going to last all winter

This is actually a good question. There’s no difference in model accuracy at 384 hours in depicting a pattern that fosters heat instead of cold. I think it’s just ingrained because anomalous cold seems like a larger deviation from the status quo than anomalous warmth. Which is a fair point, it does seem a lot easier to get highs in the 70s than highs in the 30s, even during the peak winter months when our averages fall into the 50s.

I think it’s important to remember how anomalous cold evolves on the models though. In my time watching the models during winter, a winter weather event never just shows up at day 16 and carries forward to present. It’s more like, we get glances at it on random runs in the 10-12 day period before it’s lost, then it reappears around day 7, and looks borderline until we get within a day or two. Feb 2021 was a major deviation from that pattern in that we saw it coming as much as 12 days out or so, but even still, I remember a lot of people thought that we in Dallas missed our only chance when the January system largely missed us to the south.

Bottom line, the models will show boring depictions until the moment they don’t. There’s not much of a transition, it just sort of happens. I’ve noticed this with tropical activity as well.

[Ntxw]

That's not even considering what happened in the thread earlier in the week prior to the Feb blast. . Euro led the way to a warm mission and deflected the Feb cold due to the PV shifting east. Many were in panic mode and said it was another cold head-fake when the GFS suite trended 'warmer'. It wasn't until mid to late week that the GFS locked back in and paved way. You can go back to pg 150-180+ and read the rollercoaster moods.

Point here is what you said about sums it up.

Now to play devil's advocate. Second year La Nina's can stink. Like really bad, more of them than just about any other ENSO state besides maybe a Super El Nino. The ceiling for warmth in these type of winters is really high and we're hitting them right now. If it was a first year Nina you'd feel a little less concerned but that thought is always there. That's always a worry when warmth beats the cold times consistently.

[AustinTXResident]

Nothing has indicated it’s going to change.

I took out that comment but seriously the models only run til early January... And why are they more believable showing heat than the colder runs the other day?

Even the 0z GFS has some fronts it's not like it's pushing 90 the whole run

Come on guys the pattern isnt going to last all winter

This is actually a good question. There’s no difference in model accuracy at 384 hours in depicting a pattern that fosters heat instead of cold. I think it’s just ingrained because anomalous cold seems like a larger deviation from the status quo than anomalous warmth. Which is a fair point, it does seem a lot easier to get highs in the 70s than highs in the 30s, even during the peak winter months when our averages fall into the 50s.

I think it’s important to remember how anomalous cold evolves on the models though. In my time watching the models during winter, a winter weather event never just shows up at day 16 and carries forward to present. It’s more like, we get glances at it on random runs in the 10-12 day period before it’s lost, then it reappears around day 7, and looks borderline until we get within a day or two. Feb 2021 was a major deviation from that pattern in that we saw it coming as much as 12 days out or so, but even still, I remember a lot of people thought that we in Dallas missed our only chance when the January system largely missed us to the south.

Bottom line, the models will show boring depictions until the moment they don’t. There’s not much of a transition, it just sort of happens. I’ve noticed this with tropical activity as well.

The distribution of temperatures in winter is not symmetric. It is skewed towards cold, with a long tail in that direction.

[wxman57]

Cheer up, everyone. The latest GFS is forecasting the potential for a light freeze in the D-FW area at day 16.

Okay, maybe that's not what some of you would consider winter in Texas. One thing I do see in the 06Z GFS run is a significant pattern shift at the end. Cross-Polar flow sets up with a ridge off the west coast and warming into Alaska. That is good news if you're looking at significant cold driving south to Texas. Bad news is that it's on the 384-hr panel. Something to keep an eye on.

[kingwood_tx1999]

Cheer up, everyone. The latest GFS is forecasting the potential for a light freeze in the D-FW area at day 16.

Okay, maybe that's not what some of you would consider winter in Texas. One thing I do see in the 06Z GFS run is a significant pattern shift at the end. Cross-Polar flow sets up with a ridge off the west coast and warming into Alaska. That is good news if you're looking at significant cold driving south to Texas. Bad news is that it's on the 384-hr panel. Something to keep an eye on.

http://wxman57.com/images/384.JPG

Soooooooo...your saying there's a chance

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[InfernoFlameCat]

Lol but hey, it’s how the February outbreak was first hinted out as… interesting setup that would lead to a massive polar intrusion by around hours 400-430. Very very far out. But because it is more macro scale it has more potential than those weird runs where a tiny lobe of cold air somehow gets shoved all the way down to Kansas or something.

[wxman57]

Cheer up, everyone. The latest GFS is forecasting the potential for a light freeze in the D-FW area at day 16.

Okay, maybe that's not what some of you would consider winter in Texas. One thing I do see in the 06Z GFS run is a significant pattern shift at the end. Cross-Polar flow sets up with a ridge off the west coast and warming into Alaska. That is good news if you're looking at significant cold driving south to Texas. Bad news is that it's on the 384-hr panel. Something to keep an eye on.

http://wxman57.com/images/384.JPG

Soooooooo...your saying there's a chance

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Sure, there's a chance. All that has to happen is for THIS run of the GFS to be correct at the end and all other runs wrong at the end. I haven't seen this particular pattern at the end of any GFS run lately. Consistency will be the key going forward.