Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

GFS is trying to bleed it south, but ridging nosing in from the pacific is not letting the trough dig

[Iceresistance]

GFS is trying to bleed it south, but ridging nosing in from the pacific is not letting the trough dig

Also a MONSTER trough in the PNW, it's a shame it's unable to dig because of a ridge that is trying to nose up.

[rwfromkansas]

Usually the cold wins. But, we should be cautious still. Nevertheless, I think we can say with confidence things will get interesting. Next week could be a big one somewhere from KS to maybe N TX.

[Ntxw]

I know it's the navgem, but just illustrating how much of a trend we have shifted as it gets closer with the big storm. This one should be memorable event and reference for those that cash in.

[txtwister78]

I'll say this in reference to arctic airmasses and the potential pattern for late next week and that is look to the ensembles as your first indicator and we've seen it time and time again and that is once you put arctic air into the plains, it's going to "win out" in the end. Operationals and even ensembles give you feedback errors or try to wash out the cold too quickly, but once that dam breaks it's got nowhere to go but south at that point. To Ntxw point, loading up your source region means you're halfway there.

[orangeblood]

I know it's the navgem, but just illustrating how much of a trend we have shifted as it gets closer with the big storm. This one should be memorable event and reference for those that cash in.

https://i.imgur.com/t7zbPXc.png

https://i.imgur.com/7xmeAoV.png

What's strange is that literally none of the GFS Ensemble Members have the low that far south, it's an I-40 and north storm on that model. At this range, you usually see a few members back up what the Canadian is showing. But no doubt a Major Winter Storm next week that should set the stage for PV displacment down into southern Canada. This storm should pop a massive ridge into Baffin Bay locking in the cold into lower 48 for likely the rest of January.

[Ntxw]

I know it's the navgem, but just illustrating how much of a trend we have shifted as it gets closer with the big storm. This one should be memorable event and reference for those that cash in.

https://i.imgur.com/t7zbPXc.png

https://i.imgur.com/7xmeAoV.png

What's strange is that literally none of the GFS Ensemble Members have the low that far south, it's an I-40 and north storm on that model. At this range, you usually see a few members back up what the Canadian is showing. But no doubt a Major Winter Storm next week that should set the stage for PV displacment down into southern Canada. This storm should pop a massive ridge into Baffin Bay locking in the cold into lower 48 for likely the rest of January.

I wouldn't discount it digging into Northern Mexico.

[orangeblood]

I know it's the navgem, but just illustrating how much of a trend we have shifted as it gets closer with the big storm. This one should be memorable event and reference for those that cash in.

https://i.imgur.com/t7zbPXc.png

https://i.imgur.com/7xmeAoV.png

What's strange is that literally none of the GFS Ensemble Members have the low that far south, it's an I-40 and north storm on that model. At this range, you usually see a few members back up what the Canadian is showing. But no doubt a Major Winter Storm next week that should set the stage for PV displacment down into southern Canada. This storm should pop a massive ridge into Baffin Bay locking in the cold into lower 48 for likely the rest of January.

I wouldn't discount it digging into Northern Mexico.

Yep, next 3-4 runs the models should begin to consolidate and give us a good trend indicator

[Ntxw]

I remember the 09 blizzard well watching the models. For days, it was a Panhandle -> Kansas type event. Some fluke runs to the south and then kind of zoned in on I-40 (which did get a lot of snow!). Majority of the guidance was tracking the ULL 500mb trough slightly open along and north of the Red River.

What ended up happening was the ULL trough dug into W-Texas and really got wound up. It pulled and dragged a lot of the qpf to it's west and even southwest which is where the west portion of NTX went from an all rain forecast to 9" 50mph wind driven blizzard.

[Harp.1]

I’m straining my eyes, but I still see all these multiple vorts taking the same path across the country from the west coast. But, you guys know a lot more than me….

[Wthrfan]

I remember the 09 blizzard well watching the models. For days, it was a Panhandle -> Kansas type event. Some fluke runs to the south and then kind of zoned in on I-40 (which did get a lot of snow!). Majority of the guidance was tracking the ULL 500mb trough slightly open along and north of the Red River.

What ended up happening was the ULL trough dug into W-Texas and really got wound up. It pulled and dragged a lot of the qpf to it's west and even southwest which is where the west portion of NTX went from an all rain forecast to 9" 50mph wind driven blizzard.

https://i.imgur.com/v5PKR3k.gif

I'm in Edmond,OK and that was a fun storm for those of us who didn't have to venture out. 12-14" at my house with some drifts 4-5" high!

[Iceresistance]

CMCE is following the CMC


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1Bb.gif


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1BF.gif

[Iceresistance]

HOLY EPS!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1Op.png


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1Os.gif

[Iceresistance]

OML, 537 MEAN


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/Sj1O9.gif

[HockeyTx82]

Can we get some context as the what you are seeing. What does it mean and for who?

[Iceresistance]

Can we get some context as the what you are seeing. What does it mean and for who?

Trough is trending stronger and further south, snow could reach as far south as DFW

[weatherdude1108]

Got a rainfall reading for the first time yesterday on my Tempest. It measured 1.20"

I have a CoCoRAHS gauge about 20 feet away from it. It measured 1.22" Pretty close!

[Ntxw]

Can we get some context as the what you are seeing. What does it mean and for who?

The deeper the storm, and the further south the better. Deeper doesn't always mean colder however, indirectly such a powerful system is a highly strong candidate for the kind of storms we like to say "so dynamic it draws cold, and sufficiently cools the atmosphere" despite not a cold enough surface. Lower heights could also mean there is room for model error that the air mass could be slightly colder than current depictions.

As currently modeled this coming system is on par with the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Does Austin have a chance at seeing any wintry weather?

[Stratton23]

Austin is unlikely to see any winter weather from this low, this thing would really have to dig all the way down into deep mexico for that to happen