Texas Winter 2016-2017

[gpsnowman]

To (mis)quote Desi Arnez from I Love Lucy, "Lucy, go home!" Man I hope the models rebound after a bad Saturday.

[Yukon Cornelius]

http://i67.tinypic.com/2a60axl.jpg
I couldn't resist with all of the cold air being pulled from runs.

To (mis)quote Desi Arnez from I Love Lucy, "Lucy, go home!" Man I hope the models rebound after a bad Saturday.

You and me both

[Cpv17]

Well at least the CPC is giving us some hope. Has above normal rain chances and below normal temps for both the 6-10 day and 10-14.

[Brent]

We jinxed it talking about 1983 record warmth ahead for Christmas!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Christmas still looks chilly but there's time for that to change. Absolutely nothing more depressing than Christmas being 70 or warmer plus or minus a couple days.

[aggiecutter]

Pattern recognition: Watch-out the NE 1/4 of Texas for something coming out the northern GOM the next week to 10 days. Storms love to form and travel a long strong temperature gradients. I give this a 9 out of a 10 confidence level.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[orangeblood]

Euro Ensembles trending much colder for next weekend into early next week...in the 7-14 day range, best tool available. Source region of air projected for next weekend is currently sitting over Northern Russia in the -40 to -50 deg C range, I would expect this downward trend to continue

Edit: New 12Z GFS Para is in....has DFW and Austin not getting above freezing next Monday

Lows that following morning...

[gpsnowman]

Ok some good news. I always enjoy the faith in Orangeblood. When things look bleak the insight and maps come out. Things will look different tomorrow I'm sure. One thing I do not want is another warm and humid Christmas day. That led to bad things on the 26th last year.

[starsfan65]

:uarrow: Ok some good news. I always enjoy the faith in Orangeblood. When things look bleak the insight and maps come out. Things will look different tomorrow I'm sure. One thing I do not want is another warm and humid Christmas day. That led to bad things on the 26th last year.

i remember those tornadoes on that day that hit Garland and Rowlett. I don't want to relive all over again.

[dhweather]

:uarrow: Ok some good news. I always enjoy the faith in Orangeblood. When things look bleak the insight and maps come out. Things will look different tomorrow I'm sure. One thing I do not want is another warm and humid Christmas day. That led to bad things on the 26th last year.

i remember those tornadoes on that day that hit Garland and Rowlett. I don't want to relive all over again.

Moisture + shear + lift + instability all lined up correctly that day. I still vividly remember seeing that tornado (from Rockwall) as it tore through Garland/Rowlett.

Great writeup from FWD on that day here http://www.weather.gov/fwd/dec26tornadoes#Environment

[dhweather]

The December 26, 2015 18Z sounding - CAPE of 2878 very unusual for December.

[TheProfessor]

The December 26, 2015 18Z sounding - CAPE of 2878 very unusual for December.

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/dec26 ... notate.png

Yep, Hodograph could have looked better(That's a good thing) The Skew-t shows a loaded gun, which is typically a sign for bad weather, especially without a CAP

[starsfan65]

All quiet in here.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It's the weekend

[Brent]

I love winter but man I'm looking forward to that 70 tomorrow.

[aggiecutter]

Ryan Maue liked
Eric Carpenter ‏@eric_carpenter Dec 9
@RyanMaue that will be some kind of baroclinic zone, the cold will be secondary to the winter precip potential

[Brent]

so uh did anyone see the 12z CMC? I wouldn't care if it ever snowed again if this verified... that is a foot on the south side of DFW

[South Texas Storms]

There's a lot of uncertainty in the extended range as the models are having some difficulties resolving a potential pattern change across the NE Pacific. Hopefully we will have an idea of what our Christmas weather will be like by late in the upcoming work week.

[TheProfessor]

so uh did anyone see the 12z CMC? I wouldn't care if it ever snowed again if this verified... that is a foot on the south side of DFW
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_40.png

That would be awesome, I'm fairly certain I've said this before, but there's nothing like getting snow in the place you grew up, it's not the same when you get snow in other places(Although I still love it when it snow here in Cbus). I would love to see that run continue, that convection in the GoM would likely produce a Gulf Low, Combine that with a 1046 HP pushing South and someone from Ohio Eastward is gonna be super happy.

[Brent]

Tropical Tidbits is not working but looking at the GFS on the awful NCEP maps the Christmas Eve storm looks REAL interesting this run. Cold high over Colorado and lots of precip and its definitely close in DFW

Edit: Most of the precip is rain but the snow line isn't far away in most of it. Maybe some light snow at the end of it on Christmas Eve.

It actually has another storm a couple days earlier that is warmer, but a very active pattern showing up at the least.

Here's the snowy frame: