Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Kennethb]

Wxman57 must have been good this year. He is surely getting the weather he asked Santa for.

[Brent]

Nothing has indicated it’s going to change.

I took out that comment but seriously the models only run til early January... And why are they more believable showing heat than the colder runs the other day?

Even the 0z GFS has some fronts it's not like it's pushing 90 the whole run

Come on guys the pattern isnt going to last all winter

This is actually a good question. There’s no difference in model accuracy at 384 hours in depicting a pattern that fosters heat instead of cold. I think it’s just ingrained because anomalous cold seems like a larger deviation from the status quo than anomalous warmth. Which is a fair point, it does seem a lot easier to get highs in the 70s than highs in the 30s, even during the peak winter months when our averages fall into the 50s.

I think it’s important to remember how anomalous cold evolves on the models though. In my time watching the models during winter, a winter weather event never just shows up at day 16 and carries forward to present. It’s more like, we get glances at it on random runs in the 10-12 day period before it’s lost, then it reappears around day 7, and looks borderline until we get within a day or two. Feb 2021 was a major deviation from that pattern in that we saw it coming as much as 12 days out or so, but even still, I remember a lot of people thought that we in Dallas missed our only chance when the January system largely missed us to the south.

Bottom line, the models will show boring depictions until the moment they don’t. There’s not much of a transition, it just sort of happens. I’ve noticed this with tropical activity as well.

This is a very good post too

In fact I was just noticing the GEFS around January 3rd has been trending cooler for days. Now it goes back to a torch after that true but whats to say that won't change? Yeah it's gonna be hard to stay cold in this pattern right now but I mean any cold or even seasonal snap would be better than the current weather it's certainly not a neverending torch of record highs

[bubba hotep]

FWD finally seeing a big cool down coming, going with a high of 69F next Thursday at DFW

[Brent]

FWD finally seeing a big cool down coming, going with a high of 69F next Thursday at DFW

71 to 49 here 49 is still only average but probably after this it'll feel cold

[bubba hotep]

Mele Kalikimaka everyone!

(Seems the only appropriate thing to say with temps in the 80s the next two days)

[Ntxw]

Yeah there is a cold front boundary Weds/Thurs. It's gonna be tricky how much of a push it gets, air mass behind it is heavy and chilly while ahead is very warm. Depending where you sit can change your forecast drastically. It'll be cold in Oklahoma and probably north of I-20 for this period.

Storm signal end of next week is there still.

FYI mountain cedar is going to go bonkers for everyone north of the hill country if you are sensitive to it. The worst thing this time of year is a warm spell with winds coming out of the south/southwest and blowing it all up this way. Definitely feeling it. Juniper pollen count is very high.

[Iceresistance]

This is what the MJO is doing right now in Phase 7:

[gboudx]

Normally I leave our outside Christmas lights out until Jan 1. But this year I’m removing the stuff in the yard this Sunday. The grass needs to be cut and I’m not putting the lights back. This is stupid. 57 needs to retire and move to Costa Rica or Australia. We shouldn’t have to suffer so he can ride his stupid bike.

[wxman57]

Normally I leave our outside Christmas lights out until Jan 1. But this year I’m removing the stuff in the yard this Sunday. The grass needs to be cut and I’m not putting the lights back. This is stupid. 57 needs to retire and move to Costa Rica or Australia. We shouldn’t have to suffer so he can ride his stupid bike.

We're heading out now for a 25-30 mile ride. Shorts and short-sleeve jersey. Riding tomorrow & Sunday, too. Perfect Christmas weather.

[orangeblood]

This is what the MJO is doing right now in Phase 7:
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Loading-.-.-..gif

Hahahaha, this is great!!

Patience….it’s slowly creeping east just in time for Jan Feb March in 8-1-2. Exactly what you want for Winter Months.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I’m messing with cattle today and it’s straight up early summer outside. This is crazy for the end of December.

[harp]

This is what the MJO is doing right now in Phase 7:
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Loading-.-.-..gif

Hahahaha, this is great!!

Patience….it’s slowly creeping east just in time for Jan Feb March in 8-1-2. Exactly what you want for Winter Months.

How certain of this are you?

[Cpv17]

This is what the MJO is doing right now in Phase 7:
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Loading-.-.-..gif

Hahahaha, this is great!!

Patience….it’s slowly creeping east just in time for Jan Feb March in 8-1-2. Exactly what you want for Winter Months.

Genuine question here but doesn’t it seem like winter is getting pushed back?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

This is what the MJO is doing right now in Phase 7:
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Loading-.-.-..gif

Hahahaha, this is great!!

Patience….it’s slowly creeping east just in time for Jan Feb March in 8-1-2. Exactly what you want for Winter Months.

Genuine question here but doesn’t it seem like winter is getting pushed back?

Each season this year has been delayed 30-45 days. Summer really didn’t start until July.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

And if you like this weather on Christmas, you have a black, black, cold heart.

[Iceresistance]

I'm worried for this coming February, it could be even nastier than this past February.


We have yet to get a freeze in Central & Southern Texas, Snow for the Southern Plains, & the MJO is moving very slowly.

We could have the one cold blast this winter, & it will be really big, potentially rivaling this past February's Cold Wave.

Of course it's only Late December & one can sneak in in January, but the one in February could be huge . . .

[harp]

I'm worried for this coming February, it could be even nastier than this past February.


We have yet to get a freeze in Central & Southern Texas, Snow for the Southern Plains, & the MJO is moving very slowly.

We could have the one cold blast this winter, & it will be really big, potentially rivaling this past February's Cold Wave.

Of course it's only Late December & one can sneak in in January, but the one in February could be huge . . .

What makes you think this?

[Iceresistance]

I'm worried for this coming February, it could be even nastier than this past February.


We have yet to get a freeze in Central & Southern Texas, Snow for the Southern Plains, & the MJO is moving very slowly.

We could have the one cold blast this winter, & it will be really big, potentially rivaling this past February's Cold Wave.

Of course it's only Late December & one can sneak in in January, but the one in February could be huge . . .

What makes you think this?

We're overdue for Back-to-Back Winters with February Cold Waves (Or Below Normal Temperatures) that happen once in around 20 years.

Here are the Analog years for this: 1935 & 1936, 1954 & 1955, 1977 & 1978, & 1994 & 1995.

Maybe 2021 & 2022?

With the MJO moving slowly, it can allow for certain patterns to sustain itself for an extended period of time, since the MJO is in Phase 7, it's the Arctic Buildup phase, Phases 8-1-2 are the Cold Wave Phases, I'm predicting that the most favorable phases for Cold & Snowy weather will occur between Late January & into February.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

We've yet to even have a Trace of snow across Oklahoma & Texas this winter, the first snowfall average is December in Oklahoma City & January in DFW.

[Brent]

Tulsa AFD

Gazing
farther into the crystal ball toward the New Years holiday
weekend, greater potential for colder air to cover much of the
CONUS along with an active southern stream could bring some winter
weather. Details subject to and will likely change as we get
closer.

[Iceresistance]

NWS Norman has Blowing Dust in the Forecast for the 3rd Time this year (And month), I've never seen anything like that before