Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tammie]

Out of Lubbock:

Fxus64 klub 221658 afdlub Area forecast discussion National Weather Service lubbock tx 1058 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Update: We have made several small changes to the forecast for today, lowering high temps slightly, and adding a slight chance of light rain showers across our nrn and wrn zones for late this afternoon. We have not yet made any changes to the overnight/Tuesday morning periods. The latest guidance is still indicating a swath of healthy qpf /from about a quarter to nearly a half inch/ tracking across much of the cwa with this storm system. However, the main sticking point with regards to snow potential remains the near- surface temperatures which are progged to remain near 30-32f during the time precip falls. Temps around freezing will limit the amount and impact of snowfall as much of it melts on impact. however, given the strong lift and elevated instability associated with the trough moving through, we remain concerned that dyNAMic cooling and impressive precip rates could overcome the warm near-surface temps and lead to some areas of more significant snow accumulation. There are some indications that this threat May end up being maximized across the central south plains early Tuesday morning, which could lead to some travel impacts for the morning commute. We will continue to evaluate the trends with an eye toward a possible winter weather advisory late tonight into Tuesday morning.

[orangeblood]

Re: Tomorrow's system, I just can't imagine it will get cold enough for anything significant. Just check out the current Temps across the lower 48, fairly mild for this time of year. Of course there is the dynamic cooling element with this system but that's a lot of warm air to overcome

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So now GFS showing a heck of an ice storm for SE Tx for New years.

Edit: One thing i notice, the dewpoint at the 850 level is well below freezing at -10C where the temp is +6C, all while its supposed to be raining... The 925MB temp is -2C, hence the Frz rain. Wouldnt the 850 layer moisten up nd drop the temp to near freezing? Long way to go still though

[orangeblood]

So now GFS showing a heck of an ice storm for SE Tx for New years.

Edit: One thing i notice, the dewpoint at the 850 level is well below freezing at -10C where the temp is +6C, all while its supposed to be raining... The 925MB temp is -2C, hence the Frz rain. Wouldnt the 850 layer moisten up nd drop the temp to near freezing? Long way to go still though

The setup shown on the 12Z GFS is an overrunning situation, where very cold dense air hugs the surface and cuts underneath the warm air above. The colder/deeper the airmass, the better your chances for sleet/snow. Right now, the GFS has it fairly shallow but that can change if it's underestimating the HP strength. It's very different than the storm system coming through tomorrow in that cold air is brought in at the surface rather than above, like tomorrow

[Montgomery]

I don't post ever because I'm just a lurker and try and take as much in as my head can absorb! But I do know one thing is 100% fact!!!!







Last years Winter thread on this date was 80 pages ahead of this one!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

PGFS has a 1057 HP coming into Montana, energy hangs back out west just a tad. Has all sorts of p-types all the way down to SE Tx. Last frame has MORE winter precip showing near Laredo and ready to stream NE towards SE Tx. STJ looks to be well in play. Basically two different events.

I get GFS data here: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KSGR , where can i get data for the PGFS like this?

[Portastorm]

PGFS has a 1057 HP coming into Montana, energy hangs back out west just a tad. Has all sorts of p-types all the way down to SE Tx. Last frame has MORE winter precip showing near Laredo and ready to stream NE towards SE Tx. STJ looks to be well in play. Basically two different events.

I get GFS data here: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KSGR , where can i get data for the PGFS like this?

I think we know that a coastal low will develop next week. Models very consistent about that. Temperatures are not so certain. I'm also a bit skeptical about the 12z GFS developing one coastal low on the heels of another. Could be a nasty ice storm or a cold rain storm next week for south central, south, and southeast Texas.

[gatorcane]

GFS has support from the GEM which also shows the coastal low developing with frozen precip for Eastern areas of Texas around 240 hours.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

PGFS has a 1057 HP coming into Montana, energy hangs back out west just a tad. Has all sorts of p-types all the way down to SE Tx. Last frame has MORE winter precip showing near Laredo and ready to stream NE towards SE Tx. STJ looks to be well in play. Basically two different events.

I get GFS data here: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KSGR , where can i get data for the PGFS like this?

I think we know that a coastal low will develop next week. Models very consistent about that. Temperatures are not so certain. I'm also a bit skeptical about the 12z GFS developing one coastal low on the heels of another. Could be a nasty ice storm or a cold rain storm next week for south central, south, and southeast Texas.

With the subtropical jet support, i think its possible. Havent looked at the 700 MB chart yet, but in '97 we had an ice storm that lasted multiple days because moisture kept feeding in from the SW

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF looks to be coming in colder for Texas for the next front, temp anomaly map for Christmas Eve:

[iorange55]

I don't post ever because I'm just a lurker and try and take as much in as my head can absorb! But I do know one thing is 100% fact!!!!







Last years Winter thread on this date was 80 pages ahead of this one!

That's because of the nasty ice storm in early December. We haven't had a real threat this year, but that will be changing soon.

[gatorcane]

Wow the 12Z ECMWF is sending the "end-of-month artic blast" straight south down the Leeward side of the Rocky mountains where it crosses the border and makes a good southward push into northern areas of Mexico

[ronyan]

The 12z models are in pretty good agreement on a strong high in the US @ 192 hrs on Dec 30:

GFS has a 1049mb HP near the Wyoming/Idaho border.
ECMWF has 1048mb HP in roughly the same location (slightly W).
The parallel GFS has a huge high moving a little slower and in Montana @ 1056mb.

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z ECMWF run ends as we see the core of the artic air pass right over Texas between 216 and 240 hours. That is a SIGNIFICANT cold event for Texas on this run. It has trended colder for sure. Given these airmasses can be very "heavy" coming straight down from the artic, it may just have right idea with it nose-diving south

[TheStormExpert]

Here is how the 12Z ECMWF run ends as we see the core of the artic air pass right over Texas between 216 and 240 hours. That is a SIGNIFICANT cold event for Texas on this run. It has trended colder for sure. Given these airmasses can be very "heavy" coming straight down from the artic, it may just have right idea with it nose-diving south

http://i61.tinypic.com/116usk8.png

With that kind of cold already crossing into the western GoM like that, there should be no reason for it not to make it's way to Florida.

[wxman57]

Euro has sleet/snow down to the TX coast on New Year's Eve. I'm going to have to have a talk with that model...

[cycloneye]

Euro has sleet/snow down to the TX coast on New Year's Eve. I'm going to have to have a talk with that model...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Euro has sleet/snow down to the TX coast on New Year's Eve. I'm going to have to have a talk with that model...

She'll tell you to back off and go cuddle with the GFS.

[Ralph's Weather]

Next week could feature some very cold temps and if we get some decent snow New Year's then clearing you could be looking at low teens in E TX and single digits in N TX. If it stays stormy then we will stay in the 20s for good chunks of time. Enjoy the 60s today and maybe at the end of this week because we will be thinking 40 is mild after next week.

[wxman57]

Well, EC has 1.5" snow for Houston on New Year's Eve, which I think is unlikely as the EC's snow algorithm has been off for coastal TX for a while. GFS has a long period of freezing rain/sleet from 12Z/31 to 12Z/1, which would be more likely. Low in the Gulf would mean widespread precip, assuming models are correct this far out. I don't see any signs of extreme cold, though. Of course, we don't get freezing/frozen precip if the air is too cold/dry.