Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[iorange55]

I don't think the back end of this storm will bring any surprises down here in North Central Texas, sadly. The severe weather looks interesting. I doubt we will see any tornadoes, but there might be a few big storms out there. Have to watch closely.


As far as Christmas, it definitely looks cold. Any precip? Who knows, I wouldn't get my hopes though.

[Snowshoe]

Evan Andrews on fox 4 is saying chance of rain and snow on Christmas day. Hopefully it plays out and we get some snow snow on Christmas day, that would be amazing!

[HockeyTx82]

Evan Andrews on fox 4 is saying chance of rain and snow on Christmas day. Hopefully it plays out and we get some snow snow on Christmas day, that would be amazing!

I heard that this morning. Just last night Fiona was saying Party Cloudy with highs in the 50's. Funny how fast is changed.............

[Snowshoe]

Evan Andrews on fox 4 is saying chance of rain and snow on Christmas day. Hopefully it plays out and we get some snow snow on Christmas day, that would be amazing!

I heard that this morning. Just last night Fiona was saying Party Cloudy with highs in the 50's. Funny how fast is changed.............

Yeah exactly, winter weather seems to change a bunch when it's a week or so out. I'm sure it will change again but hopefully it changes for the best!

[weatherdude1108]

Evan Andrews on fox 4 is saying chance of rain and snow on Christmas day. Hopefully it plays out and we get some snow snow on Christmas day, that would be amazing!

I heard that this morning. Just last night Fiona was saying Party Cloudy with highs in the 50's. Funny how fast is changed.............

Yeah exactly, winter weather seems to change a bunch when it's a week or so out. I'm sure it will change again but hopefully it changes for the best!

Heavy snow early Christmas morning would be great. It would be safer if it hit during that time (a low travel time of day), and, if anything, more fun to watch.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Since the low is further south than anticipated, according to the Fort Worth NWS, what does that mean for NTX?

[Snowshoe]

What are the latest models showing for Christmas?

[Portastorm]

Sorry ... but ... the 6z GFS and 12z GFS have backed off on the idea of a Christmas snow for parts of Texas. The 0z Euro and Canadian, as wxman57 earlier opined, also show a drier scenario and no Texas Christmas Snow Miracle.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, It seems the cold places are dry and the wet places are warm in today's run. Models still are not handling the different pieces of energy the same ways so I wouldn't be surprised if they continue the flip flopping. Heck tonight might even show 80s for Christmas! Wouldn't that be something lol.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Please what does it show for Southern Alberta/ Saskatchewan the 23rd 24th and 25th? I've got children that will be driving 6 to 12 hours from Alberta home to Saskatchewan those days.

It looks dry and cold. Of course I have no experience/knowledge or enough data with Canada so this is the best thing I can do I'm sure the roads are always slick up there in winter but you people are equipped for it! Environment Canada is the national weather service there (I think) so here's the link! Just find your location and voila!

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/canada_e.html

Ice and cold we are prepared for but with young drivers (even with ice treaded tires) it is still a worry (one is a careful driver the other goes with a person who has a heavy foot on the gas pedal). Thank you for the forecast and link ....I know of it but whilst following your discussions I tend to get curious as to what you see up here (and forget about checking the other).

A prairie blizzard is my greatest fear at this time of year and thankfully both you and E.C. aren't seeing that.

[CaptinCrunch]

I expect the models to continue to bounce around this week. I still think the Christmas weekend will be chilly but dry, and will continue to look to the New Years weekend as 2012 starts off with something special for TX.

[CaptinCrunch]

Page 4 of this thread

September - Hot, several more days of 100+ temps, and DFW will break the record of 69 days of 100+ set in 1980. Rain chances will increase as the weather pattern shifts to a Fall/Winter intro. (It Happened)

October - Warm to mild for most of the month, more rain but still not enough. (It happened)

November - Mild at first then much cooler by Thanksgiving and wetter. (It Happened)

December - Cool turning much colder by mid month, Christmas will be chilly but dry. (so far so good)

January - Cold start, then cool and wet. By mid month major cold and chance of ice. January closes out very cold and dry. (TBD)

February - Very cold start, another shot at ice/snow, by mid month cool/mild and dry February closes out chilly and wet (TBD)

.

This was my post back at the end of Aug, and i'm sticking to it.

[Kelarie]

My lawn is as brown and dead in August as it was in January...lol, and the heat and lack of rain has stressed the trees to the point that are dropping leaves as it was late October. Now how do I see Winter 2011-2012 shapping up?

September - Hot, several more days of 100+ temps, and DFW will break the record of 69 days of 100+ set in 1980. Rain chances will increase as the weather pattern shifts to a Fall/Winter intro. (It Happened)

October - Warm to mild for most of the month, more rain but still not enough. (It happened)

November - Mild at first then much cooler by Thanksgiving and wetter. (It Happened)

December - Cool turning much colder by mid month, Christmas will be chilly but dry. (so far so good)

January - Cold start, then cool and wet. By mid month major cold and chance of ice. January closes out very cold and dry. (TBD)

February - Very cold start, another shot at ice/snow, by mid month cool/mild and dry February closes out chilly and wet (TBD)

.

This was my post back at the end of Aug, and i'm sticking to it.

So can I get the numbers for the lotto, you luck with predictions seems to be solid

[MGC]

Come on guys....2004 was likely a once in a lifetime event. I'll take some snow on New Years though.....MGC

[Rgv20]

The 12zGFS Ensembles are slower than the operational with ejecting the energy in the southwest for the Christmas holiday. The 500mb pattern of the GFS Ensembles are actually really close to the 12zJMA (Japanese Forecast Model) which would paint a wet and cold holiday weekend. One thing is for sure tho...its going to be a chilly/cold Christmas weekend for the state of Texas!



In the map below you can see the GFS Ensembles hold off more energy back eventually kicking off to the NE. Forecast valid for Christmas morning.

[orangeblood]

^^^^^^^
I did notice that rgv20 and the ensembles match up with the pattern of late. My question would be...What is causing the pattern to become as progressive as the operational is depicting ? Is it the energy coming into west possibly indicating a pattern change? I think we should have a much better idea after tonights runs

[Rgv20]

Tonights 0zGFS trended a tad more progressive than this mornings 12zGFS......However a good amount of the 0zGFS Ensembles are slower on ejecting the energy out of the southwest. My gut feeling is that the drier solutions are going to win out.

0zGFS forecasting a more progressive pattern for the upcoming holiday weekend.



0zGFS Ensembles are still holding on the idea of a slower trough for the holiday weekend which would result on a wetter forecast.

[orangeblood]

Tonights Canadian run is slower/deeper with the energy this weekend resulting in an increase in precip across west and south Texas. If these models are underestimating the energy coming in off the Pacific, somebody could be in for quite a surprise this Christmas weekend although it's going to be very difficult to get it cold enough for snow south of I-20.

[Rgv20]

If tonights 0zCMC were to verify it would be a close call for south and east Texas regarding winter weather on Christmas evening/night....

[somethingfunny]

I'm dreaming of a White Christmas....but my gut tells me we're in for a Green Christmas. Hey, it beats a Brown Christmas. How about all this rain, eh?