Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

These near misses are getting old...quick...

[bubba hotep]

00z 12K NAM running... Bone dry over DFW through 36 hrs lol....

Same story with 3k NAM and 36 hr HRRR...

RGEM breaks the 00z drought

[Haris]

This is my idea. Final. Lets see what happens.

* I AM NOT A DEGREED METEOROLOGIST* Please refer to the NWS for official forecasts

[JayDT]

These near misses are getting old...quick...

Completely agree

[Quixotic]

These near misses are getting old...quick...

Let’s see the results first.

[Brent]

These near misses are getting old...quick...

Let’s see the results first.

I'm not very optimistic in the metro but you never know with these cold core lows

I'm thinking of taking a roadtrip down towards Eastland-Abilene tomorrow evening though and seeing what happens, will let yall know. The idea of heavy snow and 50 mph winds is tempting

[Cerlin]

These near misses are getting old...quick...

Let’s see the results first.

True, but with dwindling model support and a few near misses already this year...hard to be optimistic.

[Lagreeneyes03]

00z 12K NAM running... Bone dry over DFW through 36 hrs lol....

It's humid as heck outside to the point where to me it feels 5 degrees warmer than the actual temperature. How would that even happen...

[Brent]

00z 12K NAM running... Bone dry over DFW through 36 hrs lol....

It's humid as heck outside to the point where to me it feels 5 degrees warmer than the actual temperature. How would that even happen...

the HRRR is pushing 70 at the end of the run tomorrow afternoon in Dallas with isolated cells Maybe some severe weather?

[Cpv17]

00z 12K NAM running... Bone dry over DFW through 36 hrs lol....

It's humid as heck outside to the point where to me it feels 5 degrees warmer than the actual temperature. How would that even happen...

I feel you on that humidity part. I’m just laying here watching a movie and I can just feel the humidity even inside the house. Was trying to avoid turning on the ac, but I think I’m gonna have to. It’s sticky.

[Cpv17]

Dang HRRR, crush me with some good storms overnight tonight why dontcha!

[fendie]

Extended HRRR sees a decent swath of snow south and west of Dallas and northwest of Austin Thursday night thru Friday morning. Not much off from what the medium-range models have shown the last couple days.

Rural counties with low population of humans south of I-20 and west of I-35 are modeled to be in the sweet spot of enough forcing/heavier rain to cool the lower layers enough to see a transition to snow before the moisture is squeezed out of the atmosphere. Looks like a recipe for some decent snowfall for the area where the greatest dynamical cooling from the low pressure area overlaps with the moist airmass.

It’s hard to bet against that area seeing the most snow from this event, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if that swath moves 50-100 miles east or west depending on the speed of the low pressure area.

I’m just happy to have the ongoing model watching and anticipation of the uncertainties these winter systems can bring. Even if the only accumulation of snow this time is over rural central Texas, at least you can have hope that the next system this season has better timing for your location.

The time has come for nowcasting. Before you look to the sky for white flakes, look out the window at your neighbors inflatable Santa, because there’s a decent chance it will take to flight tomorrow.

[Brent]

I'm really quite amazed how consistent the models have been with the heaviest snow being between Abilene and Ranger Hill basically, its really quite remarkable for what is such a complicated setup. Also been many runs showing totals nearing a foot(could be overdone but it wouldn't shock me to see some impressive totals if the heavy band just sits there like is progged)

Not to say things can't change but that does increase confidence... still not seeing much if any in the metro though

[dhweather]

edited below

[dhweather]

edited below

[dhweather]

Modified probability list for this event, including some fun feedback from Captmorg70 and DFWLady

1) Surface temps stay above freezing
2) High winds
3) DFW folks that say it will never snow in Dallas again
4) People south of DFW saying it’s okay y’all will get yalls snow this year
5) Someone posts the 384 hour GFS because there's a chance in that last frame
6) Rain
7) Random post from someone: BUT WAIT, obscure unreliable model X still has the metroplex getting snow
8) Thunderstorms
9) Brent willing to drive >100 miles to see snow because it won't in DFW
10) Small hail
11) Isolated tornado
12) Some snowflakes mixed in with rain
13) 1" or more of accumulating snow
14) wxman57 professing his love of bitterly cold weather
15) ntxw giving up weather as a hobby
16) Me winning this weeks powerball

[rwfromkansas]

Had a brief thundershower in north FW.

[Cerlin]

Pretty intense rain in Carrollton right now.

[DFWLady]

Modified probability list for this event, including some fun feedback from Captmorg70 and DFWLady

1) Surface temps stay above freezing
2) High winds
3) DFW folks that say it will never snow in Dallas again
4) People south of DFW saying it’s okay y’all will get yalls snow this year
5) Someone posts the 384 hour GFS because there's a chance in that last frame
6) Rain
7) Random post from someone: BUT WAIT, obscure unreliable model X still has the metroplex getting snow
8) Thunderstorms
9) Brent willing to drive >100 miles to see snow because it won't in DFW
10) Small hail
11) Isolated tornado
12) Some snowflakes mixed in with rain
13) 1" or more of accumulating snow
14) wxman57 professing his love of bitterly cold weather
15) ntxw giving up weather as a hobby
16) Me winning this weeks powerball

I love it lol!!!
Brent take me with you! I'm starting to wonder if snow is still an actual thing lol!

[losf1981]

00z 12K NAM running... Bone dry over DFW through 36 hrs lol....

It's humid as heck outside to the point where to me it feels 5 degrees warmer than the actual temperature. How would that even happen...

Same thing here in Wichita Falls.