Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

1076 HP in the NW Territories on 06z GFS, 9 days out.

The operationals are still not handling this pattern correctly. I think we have another 3-4 days to go till they somewhat figure it out.

[Texas Snowman]

Southern Oklahoma…
 https://twitter.com/nwsnorman/status/1602648742682890242

[rwfromkansas]

Um, WTF. I wake up to a tornado warning west of me? At 7 am?

Um, usually when that happens it’s a BAD tornado day.

Was this expected?!

[rwfromkansas]

Well I may have to use my classroom as a tornado shelter today.

[Iceresistance]

Tornado on the ground near Decatur, TX

[Iceresistance]

Unrelated to this current situation here.
 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1602641142331351040




From 0z Euro, below normal temperatures are literally off the color scales!
 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1602614136877289472




From BAMWX
 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1602612580949827590





 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1602612580949827590

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy, PDS Tornado Warning for near Decatur, TX!

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
720 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

TXC121-497-131345-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0074.000000T0000Z-221213T1345Z/
Wise TX-Denton TX-
720 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL WISE AND NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTIES...

At 719 AM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Decatur, moving northeast at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Wise and northwestern Denton Counties, including the
following locations... Bolivar and Slidell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! If
you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the
closest substantial shelter now! Get to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9723 3329 9722 3319 9752 3326 9755
3343 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1319Z 236DEG 28KT 3325 9749

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

[wxman57]

I'm still not sure that the models are handling next week's weather correctly. What we should watch for are temps in northern Canada falling this weekend. Currently, temps there are at 0F or into the single digits. That's not very cold for this time of year. GFS & Euro indicate that cold air begins to build there by Saturday. Let's see if that happens and how cold it gets. GFS still looks wonky, with temps in Oklahoma the same as in Montana by Christmas. I would expect well below-zero temps up in Montana. Perhaps by Sat/Sun there will be better run-to-run model agreement when the event will be within 5-7 days out.

Just in case, the private jet is fueled and ready to depart for Sydney.

[Ntxw]

Mr. Heat Miser tear down this wall.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Mr. Heat Miser tear down this wall.

https://i.imgur.com/EtiJl03.gif

It’s coming.


Channel your inner Reagan, Mr. NTXW

[Texas Snowman]

167
WWUS54 KFWD 131327
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
727 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

TXC121-497-131345-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0074.000000T0000Z-221213T1345Z/
Wise TX-Denton TX-
727 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL WISE AND NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTIES...

At 726 AM CST, a confirmed tornado was located 10 miles east of
Decatur, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Bolivar and Slidell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter now! Get to an interior room on the lowest floor
of a sturdy building and avoid windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9723 3329 9722 3322 9745 3329 9749
3339 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1326Z 241DEG 28KT 3328 9743

[Iceresistance]

Mr. Heat Miser tear down this wall.

https://i.imgur.com/EtiJl03.gif

Or let Nature do it!

[Iceresistance]

167
WWUS54 KFWD 131327
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
727 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

TXC121-497-131345-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0074.000000T0000Z-221213T1345Z/
Wise TX-Denton TX-
727 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL WISE AND NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTIES...

At 726 AM CST, a confirmed tornado was located 10 miles east of
Decatur, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Bolivar and Slidell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter now! Get to an interior room on the lowest floor
of a sturdy building and avoid windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9723 3329 9722 3322 9745 3329 9749
3339 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1326Z 241DEG 28KT 3328 9743

The Rotation has rapidly weakened to where it no longer poses a tornado threat.

[rwfromkansas]

My sirens aren’t sounding!

[orangeblood]

As you typically see on the front end of Severe US Arctic outbreaks, MAJOR US winter storm signals popping up for late next week . Decent 500 mb agreement at this range b/w Euro and GFS

[Ntxw]

Storm southwest of Granbury is tor warned and may spin one up.

[Texas Snowman]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
731 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Cooke County in north central Texas...
Northwestern Grayson County in north central Texas...

* Until 815 AM CST.

* At 731 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Gainesville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Callisburg around 740 AM CST.
Pottsboro and Lake Texoma around 815 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Dixie,
Preston, Gordonville, Walnut Bend, Sturgeon, Sandusky, Dexter, Locust
and Sherwood Shores.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 498 and 503.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9680 3382 9676
3384 9669 3392 9667 3389 9659 3385 9663
3382 9658 3360 9712 3372 9721 3374 9718
3372 9714 3373 9709 3381 9709 3382 9705
3389 9698 3395 9700 3394 9697 3396 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 1331Z 236DEG 31KT 3369 9713

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

[Ntxw]

As you typically see on the front end of Severe US Arctic outbreaks, MAJOR US winter storm signals popping up for late next week . Decent 500 mb agreement at this range b/w Euro and GFS

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1670889600/1671753600-4VxIoRenFUk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1670889600/1671753600-xfJuPlV6y6Q.png

Usually always a blizzard to kick off these severe Arctic outbreaks. 1072mb on the 6z GFS in Montana...yikes would blow anything out of the water record wise if that panned out.

In fact the storm now up north is a blizzard. Lots of blocking, lots of dynamic, the ingredients are setting up perfectly for it.

[Texas Snowman]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
750 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022


TXC221-131415-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0076.000000T0000Z-221213T1415Z/
Hood TX-
750 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN HOOD COUNTY...

At 749 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Granbury, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Oak Trail Shores around 755 AM CST.
Granbury and Pecan Plantation around 805 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Mambrino, Tolar, Lake Granbury, Acton, Stockton Bend, Waples,
DeCordova and Cresson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter now! Get to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3256 9775 3255 9762 3237 9762 3234 9792
3243 9796
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 246DEG 35KT 3240 9786

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

[ThunderSleetDreams]

As you typically see on the front end of Severe US Arctic outbreaks, MAJOR US winter storm signals popping up for late next week . Decent 500 mb agreement at this range b/w Euro and GFS

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1670889600/1671753600-4VxIoRenFUk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/z500_anom/1670889600/1671753600-xfJuPlV6y6Q.png

Usually always a blizzard to kick off these severe Arctic outbreaks. 1072mb on the 6z GFS in Montana...yikes would blow anything out of the water record wise if that panned out.

In fact the storm now up north is a blizzard. Lots of blocking, lots of dynamic, the ingredients are setting up perfectly for it.

1072 with this snowpack being laid down? You’d need to drop those temps considerably.