Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[severe]

WOW!!! That would be amazing.. I can't wait to see how this will play out. I seen many long term colds bust.. Something tells me this winter will be different..Call it womans tuition.. (spelling)?? and you know we are always right. LOL

Maybe that's why I'm divorced and happily raising my kid on my own? Anyways, I agree and think these next two or three weeks will be very interesting.
The forecasters are having a very difficult time trying to predict exactly what will happen.

[srainhoutx]

Here is the entire acticle from Larry Cosgrove for the Houston Area released this evening...

So, what about the supposed sunshine and 70+ temperatures on Sunday? As with most complete forecast busts in Houston, moisture played a crucial role. The low cloud deck left behind from the Friday night rains was capped by a strong inversion, as dry air from Mexico moved above a high dewpoint field and flow off of the Gulf of Mexico. Hence while some parts of western and northern Texas worked out quite nicely with sunshine and readings near 70 (F), Houston sat in the 50s with clouds and patchy dense fog.

A cold front will approach the pool of moisture over southeastern Texas on Monday. So just when the sun tries to come out for a while (70 deg F is within reach), lifting and forcing on the increasingly unstable regime will trigger showers and thunderstorms. Rain and thunder may continue behind the front on Monday evening as wave cyclogenesis (intersection of front with subtropical jet stream energy) occurs over the western Gulf of Mexico.

It will turn quite a bit colder on Tuesday, but the chilled regime will start to moderate on Wednesday. The emphasis on cold advection will be over the Midwest and Northeast over the course of the next week or so, as a weak Arctic vortex takes shape across Quebec and New England. A sharp drop in temperature appears likely after December 18, when the aforementioned southern branch churns out a significant winter storm. If that disturbance phases with the cAk gyre entering the Northeast (which appears likely at this point), then pretty much everyone living to the right of the Continental Divide (including much of Mexico and Cuba!) can expect a period of near-record cold that could last into New Years' Eve.

[wxgirl69]

Can I get A WOOP WOOP!!!

[attallaman]

:uarrow: Can I get A WOOP WOOP!!!

Check your mail.

[iorange55]

Part of Dallas NWS chat

THE MID TO
LOWER 50S THIS WEEKEND AND HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF WOULD
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY...BEFORE DROPPING HIGHS INTO
THE MID 30S BY TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW SIMPLY UNDERCUT MEX
GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE COOLER THAN NORMAL SIGNAL
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BRRRRRR

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI regarding the Arctic Front and Upper Air disturbance for Today and Tomorrow as well as the week ahead from the HPC...

...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS THROUGH
WED...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF

INFLUENCE FROM THIS TROUGH MANIFESTS ITSELF MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION BEGINNING
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE REFLECTION DUE TO STATICALLY STABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION/INTENSITY OF
THE TROUGH ALOFT UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WED...WHEN THE NAM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE STRONG SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. GIVEN AN
ABSENCE OF SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW
UKMET/NEW CANADIAN/NEW ECMWF WHICH DEPICT THE TROUGH FARTHER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...ITS SOLUTION APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SUFFERS FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS...RECOMMEND CAUTIOUS USE OF THE NAM AND
GFS...IF USED AT ALL...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT AN ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

A good point to remember as the days unfold.

Satellite Imagery this morning as well as surface obs show the shallow Arctic Airmass heading S into KS/OK this morning. Watch how the temps fall behind this airmass.

IR...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=ir

WV...note the Upper Air disturabance digging SE into Baja region and Northern MX...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

[gofrogs]

Whats the breakdonwn for the next winter event fror north texas later towrards christmas

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Dense fog continues to blanket the area…



Our wonderful weekend weather has carried over into today with dense fog across much of the region. Visibilities have been bouncing around ½ to ¼ of a mile for most of the night and really for most of the weekend for that matter. Only a few locations were able to break out yesterday…while everyone else stayed socked in under a strong low level inversion. I am very doubtful that many locations will break out today even with increasing mixing. Warm front currently along the coast will migrate slowly inland and help bring very thick coastal sea fog with it as nearshore air mass has dewpoints in the lower 60’s with water temps. around 60 leading to very dense fog over the nearshore waters.



Shortwave out west and strong cold front in the plains will arrive tonight and Tuesday and help to continue our now 3 weeks of wet and cold weather. Will see showers begin to develop this afternoon as isentropic lift increases over the eroding surface cool dome. May see enough instability for a few thunderstorms overnight similar to last Friday night. Strong cold front over the central plains will come southward and arrive into the area by Tuesday morning. Air mass over the plains is very cold with teens into SW KS. As suspected last week the GFS was and may still be too warm with this air mass as it does not handle such shallow/cold air masses well. While numbers look OK for now…we may end up about 3-5 degrees colder than the model is showing both for Tuesday and Wednesday. Will keep rain chances going Tuesday behind the front making for another wet and cold day. Will see slight drying Tuesday night with rains pushing off the coast while the next storm system digs into Mexico. Not sure we will clear out all that much Wed-Thurs as upper flow remains zonal and next system heads into Mexico. For now, out of hope to see the sun again…will call for at least partly cloudy skies under possibly high level cirrus clouds. It all ends by Friday as the next system heads deeper to the south forcing surface low pressure (again) over the NW Gulf. May really need to ramp up rain chances Friday-Saturday if this system continues to look as deep and if it tracks a tad more northward.


Long Range:

Next forecast debate is the odds in the models as to what to do next week and if it will be warm (GFS) or very cold (ECMWF). GFS has been waffling around with the idea of a pattern favorable for some really cold air coming southward and the ECMWF is now cold while the latest runs of the GFS have warmed next week significantly. Given -30 to -40F surface temperatures in NW Canada and general agreement on an upper level amplification with a western US ridge and eastern US trough this should support some of this cold air moving southward. Question is does it come straight south down the front range or is it deflected eastward with a glancing blow to TX. Feel the GFS is too warm and will once again need to undercut its guidance…while the ECMWF looks very cold and would support a direct dump of arctic air deep into TX prior to Christmas. I am tempted to go closer to the ECMWF but not as cold…with that said if the GFS grabs the trend and stays with it…will need to take the knife to the temperatures for next week…the pattern already looks favorable and that gives me enough confidence to go lower than the GFS…however I am still not sure the dump will be directly southward which could keep the really cold stuff of to our N and E. As for any precip. well the GFS is very wet during this period and recent history has shown rainfall about every 2-3 days down here for the last 3 weeks…I see no significant change as the active southern branch remains in place.

[srainhoutx]

Well the Parallel sure likes a stormy pattern from Christmas to New Years. Not too concerned about the "finer" details via the GFS, but the noisy Southern Stream and "cooler" weather sure seems plausible. Hang on, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

[snow and ice]

The 6z run of the Ensemble members show cold, cold and snow-ice, or one or the other.

6z Ensemble Members:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_6z/f228.html

[srainhoutx]

A quick glance at the GGEM looks "interesting" as well.

[Big O]

A quick glance at the GGEM looks "interesting" as well.

Great tease. Please elaborate.

[Portastorm]

A quick glance at the GGEM looks "interesting" as well.

Eh, I'm not letting you get away with just that srainhoutx!

Define "interesting" for those of us who haven't had time to see the GGEM.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The 6z run of the Ensemble members show cold, cold and snow-ice, or one or the other.

6z Ensemble Members:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_6z/f228.html

How cold and icy? When and how far south? Does it avoid the city of Austin and in particular, Portastorm's goal post in his backyard?

[HockeyTx82]

The 6z run of the Ensemble members show cold, cold and snow-ice, or one or the other.

6z Ensemble Members:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_6z/f228.html

How cold and icy? When and how far south? Does it avoid the city of Austin and in particular, Portastorm's goal post in his backyard?

All we can hope for is that Nick Folk will not be involved with "kicking" this storm straight down south. It would go either wide right or wide left........

[srainhoutx]

A quick glance at the GGEM looks "interesting" as well.

Eh, I'm not letting you get away with just that srainhoutx!

Define "interesting" for those of us who haven't had time to see the GGEM.

I'm keeping my mouth shut until the EC and Ensembles arrive, Portastorm. There are plenty of other fine members here that can post their thoughts. Southerngale as put a muzzle on me. J/K SG. Besides, we would want Lucy to have too much information, would we.

[wxman22]

A quick glance at the GGEM looks "interesting" as well.

Eh, I'm not letting you get away with just that srainhoutx!

Define "interesting" for those of us who haven't had time to see the GGEM.

I'm keeping my mouth shut until the EC and Ensembles arrive, Portastorm. There are plenty of other fine members here that can post their thoughts. Southerngale as put a muzzle on me. J/K SG. Besides, we would want Lucy to have too much information, would we.

I looked at the GGEM and i didnt see anything interesting....

[Portastorm]

First of all, ok ... c'mon now ... the GGEM?! The Canadian model scores the lowest in terms of reliability or so I have read. I also looked at it through 144 hours and saw nothing of "interest" at least for the Southern Plains and Texas. Wxman22, I agree with you!

Secondly, I did look at those 6z ensemble runs per snow and ice's note. Only two of the 12 ensembles showed an ice/snow event for parts of the central and southern parts of the state. However, about half did show pretty cold conditions for the northern part of Texas along with a threat for snow or ice.

[srainhoutx]

Remember you have to use all the tools in the tool box in this type of setup. ALL guidance is struggling as we have seen for the past two or three weeks. As for the GGEM, it does show some "hints" in the Upper Air Pattern. Details and all the tools folks. We shall see, but that's my 0.02 cents worth.

[jasons2k]

I'm watching with great interest the possibilities of some very cold air charging down the plains.

I drove through the neighborhood and took note of the freeze damage from last weekend:
- The Pygmy Dates may have total leaf loss
- Florida Gardenias will have total leaf loss and may have to be cut back significantly
- Annuals (Bananas, etc.), are toast
- Unprotected Majesty Palms have significant leaf burn
- Lantanas are toast
- Some leaf burn noted on Queen palms - it's pretty bad on some of the smaller ones
- Variegated Ginger has significant leaf burn
- Also noted: a Royal Palm in the inner loop on Bissonnet has significant leaf & crown burn. Too early to tell if the spear was killed.
- My protected Majesty Palms look like they survived, but the fronds are mush and bend in half - first time I've seen this happen.

All-in-all, this was the worst freeze I have seen in the Houston area since we moved here in 2005. If we get anything colder than what we got last weekend, it will be bad even in the urban core.