Texas Winter 2019-2020

[gatorcane]

The 18z is ridiculous

I wish we could save some of these runs. This one would make it to the Hall of Fame

Shows snow/sleet accumulation into Central Florida over Disney World. Lol.

[Cpv17]

0z ARW and NMM (high res models) have really cut back on the rainfall totals for TX. NAM looks drier for the 35 corridor as well. Hope this isn't another disappointing rain event...

Yeah it doesn’t even look that good for southeast Texas anymore either. Really starts to get cranking once it enters far eastern Texas and into Louisiana. Sucks

[Texas Snow]

Heyoooooo 18z GFS. The upper air pattern and the Arctic drop an anvil on our heads with 48-96 hours below freezing depending on where you are.

It’s so cold it even has snow in the Gulf

Which is why it may happen. Snow drought for DFW continues yet the fish in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico will see snow.

At least they won’t have any accumulations to Instagram.

[Haris]

If the models are such a headache less than 30 hours out, we can’t possibly take anything beyond 3 days remotely seriously. That’s why I’m not even bothering about any winter weather potential yet.

[Brent]

0z ARW and NMM (high res models) have really cut back on the rainfall totals for TX. NAM looks drier for the 35 corridor as well. Hope this isn't another disappointing rain event...

That would follow the trend

[cheezyWXguy]

0z ARW and NMM (high res models) have really cut back on the rainfall totals for TX. NAM looks drier for the 35 corridor as well. Hope this isn't another disappointing rain event...

That would follow the trend

The conditions it shows look very favorable for severe weather tomorrow. VBV in the hodographs has been decreasing since the 12z, and the 0z is showing 400-500m2/s2 SRH values over dfw with 1000+ j/kg cape. HRRR is lower on SRH (2-300) but higher on instability (up to 2000)
Edit to add, it would be a shame to have to deal with all of this severe weather only to watch the one benefit, rainfall, go by the wayside

[cheezyWXguy]

If the models are such a headache less than 30 hours out, we can’t possibly take anything beyond 3 days remotely seriously. That’s why I’m not even bothering about any winter weather potential yet.

While I agree with your frustration, that’s not quite an even comparison. Tomorrow is about very fine, pin-point details, whereas looking to next week we should be primarily concerned with more general indicators like 500mb pattern and source region temps

[Haris]

0z ARW and NMM (high res models) have really cut back on the rainfall totals for TX. NAM looks drier for the 35 corridor as well. Hope this isn't another disappointing rain event...

That would follow the trend

The conditions it shows look very favorable for severe weather tomorrow. VBV in the hodographs has been decreasing since the 12z, and the 0z is showing 400-500m2/s2 SRH values over dfw with 1000+ j/kg cape. HRRR is lower on SRH (2-300) but higher on instability (up to 2000)
Edit to add, it would be a shame to have to deal with all of this severe weather only to watch the one benefit, rainfall, go by the wayside

Just in case you don’t know, I don’t live in Dallas. I’m down in Austin.

[cheezyWXguy]

That would follow the trend

The conditions it shows look very favorable for severe weather tomorrow. VBV in the hodographs has been decreasing since the 12z, and the 0z is showing 400-500m2/s2 SRH values over dfw with 1000+ j/kg cape. HRRR is lower on SRH (2-300) but higher on instability (up to 2000)
Edit to add, it would be a shame to have to deal with all of this severe weather only to watch the one benefit, rainfall, go by the wayside

Just in case you don’t know, I don’t live in Dallas. I’m down in Austin.

Haha sorry, I’m being a little self-absorbed about this event. It looks like the nam is holding the cap on you guys tomorrow. I know much you need the rain down there, I just hope of you get it, it doesn’t come with the severe weather too

[bubba hotep]

0z ARW and NMM (high res models) have really cut back on the rainfall totals for TX. NAM looks drier for the 35 corridor as well. Hope this isn't another disappointing rain event...

That would follow the trend

Things still look good, rain wise, for DFW. Flash Flood watch is still warranted.

[bubba hotep]

0z ARW and NMM (high res models) have really cut back on the rainfall totals for TX. NAM looks drier for the 35 corridor as well. Hope this isn't another disappointing rain event...

That would follow the trend

The conditions it shows look very favorable for severe weather tomorrow. VBV in the hodographs has been decreasing since the 12z, and the 0z is showing 400-500m2/s2 SRH values over dfw with 1000+ j/kg cape. HRRR is lower on SRH (2-300) but higher on instability (up to 2000)
Edit to add, it would be a shame to have to deal with all of this severe weather only to watch the one benefit, rainfall, go by the wayside

The current MOD is for wind but I wouldn't be surprised to see MOD added for the I35 corridor for Tornadoes at some point (I hate trying to guess what SPC might do lol). Conditions will be very favorable and if there is a decent window of discrete storm mode then we will probably see some legit tornadoes.

[Cpv17]

That would follow the trend

The conditions it shows look very favorable for severe weather tomorrow. VBV in the hodographs has been decreasing since the 12z, and the 0z is showing 400-500m2/s2 SRH values over dfw with 1000+ j/kg cape. HRRR is lower on SRH (2-300) but higher on instability (up to 2000)
Edit to add, it would be a shame to have to deal with all of this severe weather only to watch the one benefit, rainfall, go by the wayside

Just in case you don’t know, I don’t live in Dallas. I’m down in Austin.

Big event for north TX and Oklahoma and points north and east of there. We live too far south to get anything significant from this event imo. I wish the center of the low would be further south. Go figure though. Typically low pressures are almost always too far north of here.

[Haris]

The conditions it shows look very favorable for severe weather tomorrow. VBV in the hodographs has been decreasing since the 12z, and the 0z is showing 400-500m2/s2 SRH values over dfw with 1000+ j/kg cape. HRRR is lower on SRH (2-300) but higher on instability (up to 2000)
Edit to add, it would be a shame to have to deal with all of this severe weather only to watch the one benefit, rainfall, go by the wayside

Just in case you don’t know, I don’t live in Dallas. I’m down in Austin.

Haha sorry, I’m being a little self-absorbed about this event. It looks like the nam is holding the cap on you guys tomorrow. I know much you need the rain down there, I just hope of you get it, it doesn’t come with the severe weather too

Haha no worries.

[wxman22]

Its Nowcasting time, I would just wait and see how things play out at this point. (ie: radar trends,SPC/NWS updates)

[harp]

0Z GFS!!!! Holy Moly!!! That's one hell of a fantasy!!

[TheProfessor]

0Z GFS!!!! Holy Moly!!! That's one hell of a fantasy!!

I think all our Dallas friends would be quite unhappy if it turned out that we got real snow before they did lol. They do get some ice(bleh) earlier on the run though.

[TheProfessor]

The 0z GFS would be one of the craziest snow storms in history if that happened(I'd also be slightly jealous with Mobile getting 10+ inches of snow lol.) I say shift that thing west 100 miles or so and then we're cooking.

[Snowman67]

0Z GFS is an ice box (I know 10 days out). It would make for great bike riding weather for our resident heat miser...

[Cerlin]

Honestly, this snow drought has been so long I don’t think I could even be upset if everyone but us got snow this year. In fact, I’m expecting that to happen.

[mcallum177]

I dont know if this is meteorological significant but while I was out tonight walking the dog I noticed that the low level clouds are moving through very fast. Almost like a spring severe weather morning when it's muggy with lots of clouds rushing through. Hoping for the best tomorrow and that no one gets hurt and maybe we get a few snow flakes.